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涓婃捣甯備汉韬繚闄╀繚璐规敹鍏ョ殑褰卞搷鍥犵礌鎺㈡瀽

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涓婃捣甯備汉韬繚闄╀繚璐规敹鍏ョ殑褰卞搷鍥犵礌鎺㈡瀽

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銆€銆€浼撮殢鐫€绀句細鐢熶骇鍔涚殑涓嶆柇杩涙, 璧勬湰甯傚満鍖栨棩鐩婃樉鐫€, 浜鸿韩淇濋櫓宸茬劧鎴愪负淇濋櫓涓氱殑閲嶈鍒嗘敮涔嬩竴, 鎴愪负搴斿浜鸿韩椋庨櫓鐨勯噸瑕佸绛栦箣涓€銆傚畠鐨勫彂灞曚唬琛ㄧ潃鎴戝浗甯傚満鐨勮祫鏈寲杩涗竴姝ュ畬鍠? 绀句細鐢熶骇鍔涚殑涓嶆柇鎻愰珮, 鏄浗瀵屾皯寮虹殑璞″緛銆傝€屽氨鐩墠鍥藉唴澶栫殑鐮旂┒鎴愭灉鏉ョ湅, 浜鸿韩淇濋櫓鐨勯渶姹傛槸灞呮皯瀵逛簬椋庨櫓鎰忚瘑鐨勪笉鏂寮? 鏄负浜嗘秷闄ょ敱瀵垮懡鐨勪笉纭畾鎬ф墍寮曡捣鐨勪竴绯诲垪鏀跺叆椋庨櫓銆傛墍浠ヨ璧勪骇鎵€甯︽潵鐨勯闄╁苟涓嶆槸浜鸿韩淇濋櫓鐨勭涓€褰卞搷瑕佺礌, 浜轰滑瀵逛汉韬繚闄╃殑闇€姹傚苟涓嶄細鍙楅闄╄祫浜х殑娉㈠姩鑰屽彂鐢熻緝澶х殑鍙樺寲銆傝繖涔熻鏄庝簡瀵块櫓鏇村鍦颁綔涓轰竴椤瑰偍钃勪笌淇濋殰鍨嬩骇鍝? 鏈夊埆浜庡叾浠栨姇璧勫瀷淇濋櫓浜у搧銆傚洜姝ゆ湰鏂囬€夊畾浜嗙粡娴庤緝涓虹箒鑽g殑涓婃捣甯傜殑浜鸿韩淇濋櫓淇濊垂鏀跺叆涓轰緥, 鎺㈣浠ヤ笂娴峰競涓轰唬琛ㄧ殑閮ㄥ垎鍩庡競鐨勪汉韬繚闄╀繚璐规敹鍏ョ殑涓昏鍙戝睍褰卞搷鍥犵礌銆?/span>

銆€銆€浜屻€佹ā鍨嬬殑璁惧畾

銆€銆€(涓€) 褰卞搷鍥犵礌鍒嗘瀽

銆€銆€1銆佺粡娴庡彂灞曟按骞炽€?/strong>

銆€銆€淇濋櫓骞堕潪涓€韫磋€屽氨, 瀹冪殑鍑虹幇鏄敱绀句細鐢熶骇鍔涘彂灞曡€屽偓鐢? 濮嬬粓浼撮殢鐫€绀句細鐢熶骇鍔涚殑鍙戝睍鑰屾垚闀裤€傛鏄粡娴庣殑涓嶆柇绻佽崳鎵嶄績浣夸簡淇濋櫓琛屼笟涓嶆柇鍙戝睍銆傜敱姝ゆ帹娴? 涓婃捣甯備汉韬繚闄╄涓氱殑鍙戝睍杩呴€熺涓嶅紑鍏剁粡娴庣殑楂橀€熷彂灞? 鍩庡競缁忔祹鍙戝睍姘村钩蹇呯劧涓哄叾浜鸿韩淇濋櫓涓氬彂灞曟彁渚涗簡鎵庡疄鐨勭墿璐ㄤ繚闅溿€?/span>
 

 

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銆€銆€浜鸿韩淇濋櫓涓昏淇濋殰鐨勬槸浜虹殑鐢熷懡鍜岃韩浣? 涓旈殢鐫€浜哄彛鏁伴噺鐨勫澶? 鏈夐闄╂剰璇嗗拰鎶曚繚鎰忚瘑鐨勪汉鏁颁篃浼氶殢涔嬪澶? 浠庤€屽奖鍝嶄繚闄╄涓氱殑鍙戝睍銆備笂娴峰競浣滀负鎴戝浗鏍稿績浜哄彛鍩庡競涔嬩竴, 鍏朵汉鍙e瘑搴﹀湪涓嶆柇鎵╁ぇ, 鑰屼汉鍙g殑澧炲姞鍔垮繀瀵瑰叾浜鸿韩淇濋櫓涓氭湁宸ㄥぇ褰卞搷銆?/span>

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銆€銆€鏀跺叆姘村钩鐨勬彁楂樹篃浼氬甫鏉ヤ繚闄╅渶姹傛€婚噺鍜岀粨鏋勭殑鍙樺寲銆傜粡娴庡彂灞曟按骞宠秺楂? 浜轰滑鐨勫彲鏀厤鏀跺叆瓒婇珮, 鍙敤浜庢棩甯告秷璐瑰搧浠ュ鐨勬敹鍏ヨ秺楂? 鍥犺€屼汉浠彲浠ョ敤闂茬疆鐨勮祫閲戣喘涔颁汉韬繚闄╀互鑾峰緱瀹夊叏淇濋殰銆備笂娴峰競鐨勪綇鎴峰瓨娆炬€婚鍜屼汉鍧囦綇鎴峰瓨娆惧潎宸蹭綅灞呭叏鍥界浜? 杩欎篃鏄叾淇濋櫓涓氬彂灞曠殑蹇呰鏉′欢涔嬩竴銆?/span>

銆€銆€(浜? 鍙橀噺璁惧畾鍙婃暟鎹敹闆?/strong>

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銆€銆€鏍规嵁涓婅堪鐩稿叧鏁版嵁, 浣跨敤鏈€灏忎簩涔樻硶浣滃鍏冪嚎鎬у洖褰掑垎鏋? 寰楀埌妯″瀷鐨勬姤鍛婂舰寮?

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銆€銆€鎷熷悎浼樺害妫€楠?R2=0.950728鎺ヨ繎浜?, 琛ㄦ槑妯″瀷瀵规牱鏈暟鎹嫙鍚堢▼搴﹂珮銆侳妫€楠?F=62.71014, 瀵瑰簲鐨凱rob=0.000000鏄庢樉灏忎簬0.05, 琛ㄦ槑妯″瀷绾挎€у叧绯绘樉鐫€, 鍗宠В閲婂彉閲忕敓浜ф€诲€糥1銆佸父浣忎汉鍙2銆佸啘鏉戜汉鍧囧彲鏀厤鏀跺叆X3銆佷綇鎴蜂釜浜哄瓨娆綳4鑱斿悎璧锋潵瀵硅瑙i噴鍙橀噺浜鸿韩淇濋櫓淇濊垂鏀跺叆Y鏈夋樉鐫€褰卞搷銆俆妫€楠?鐢熶骇鎬诲€糥1銆佸啘鏉戜汉鍧囧彲鏀厤鏀跺叆X3鐨則鍊煎搴旂殑Prob鍊煎潎灏忎簬0.05, 琛ㄦ槑杩欎簺鍙傛暟瀵逛汉韬繚闄╀繚璐规敹鍏鏈夋樉鐫€褰卞搷, 甯镐綇浜哄彛X2銆佷綇鎴蜂釜浜哄瓨娆綳4鐨則鍊煎搴旂殑Prob鍊煎潎澶т簬0.05, 琛ㄦ槑杩欎簺鍙傛暟瀵逛汉韬繚闄╀繚璐规敹鍏娌℃湁鏄剧潃褰卞搷銆?/span>

銆€銆€(浜? 鍘熸ā鍨嬭閲忕粡娴庡妫€楠?/strong>

銆€銆€澶氶噸鍏辩嚎鎬ф楠?鑰冭檻鍒伴€夋嫨鐨勫奖鍝嶅洜绱犺繃澶? 棣栧厛杩涜鐩稿叧绯绘暟妫€楠?琚В閲婂彉閲忎汉韬繚闄╀繚璐规敹鍏涓庤В閲婂彉閲忕敓浜ф€诲€糥1銆佸父浣忎汉鍙2鍐滄潙浜哄潎鍙敮閰嶆敹鍏3銆佷綇鎴蜂釜浜哄瓨娆綳4鐨勭浉鍏崇郴鏁板垎鍒负0.960352銆?.900807銆?.935522銆?.940061, 鍧囧ぇ浜?.8, 鍒濇琛ㄦ槑浜鸿韩淇濋櫓淇濊垂鏀跺叆Y涓庤В閲婂彉閲忕敓浜ф€诲€糥1銆佸父浣忎汉鍙2銆佸啘鏉戜汉鍧囧彲鏀厤鏀跺叆X3銆佷綇鎴蜂釜浜哄瓨娆綳4涔嬮棿鍙兘鍧囧瓨鍦ㄦ鐨勯珮搴︾嚎鎬х浉鍏冲叧绯汇€?/span>

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銆€銆€鏍规嵁鐞嗚鍒嗘瀽, 缁忔祹鍙戝睍姘村钩鏄奖鍝嶄汉韬繚闄╀繚璐规敹鍏ョ殑鏈€閲嶈鐨勫奖鍝嶅洜绱? 涓旂敱鐩稿叧绯绘暟妫€楠屽彲寰楃敓浜ф€诲€糥1涓庝汉韬繚闄╀繚璐规敹鍏鐨勭浉鍏虫€ф渶寮? 鏁呭厛寤虹珛Y涓嶺1鐨勪竴鍏冨熀鏈嚎鎬у洖褰掓ā鍨嬨€傜劧鍚庡皢鍏朵綑鐨勫彉閲忛€愪釜寮曞叆妯″瀷, 缁忚繃鍙嶅鐨勫紩鍏?妫€楠?鍓旈櫎, 鏈€缁堢‘瀹氭ā鍨嬩负:

銆€銆€(鍥? 淇妯″瀷鍐嶆楠?/strong>

銆€銆€鍐嶆鍒╃敤鏂瑰樊鎵╁ぇ鍥犲瓙娉曡繘琛屾楠? 寰楀埌鏂瑰樊鎵╁ぇ鍥犲瓙澶т簬10, 璇存槑璋冩暣鍚庣殑妯″瀷浠嶇劧瀛樺湪鐫€涓€瀹氱殑澶氶噸鍏辩嚎鎬с€傚洜姝ゅ妯″瀷浣滀簩娆′慨姝? 鍙樻崲妯″瀷褰㈠紡:lnY=C+C1*lnX1+C 3*X 3;鏈€缁堣幏寰楁ā鍨?

銆€銆€(浜? 浜屾淇妯″瀷鍐嶆楠?/strong>

銆€銆€缁х画浣跨敤鏂瑰樊鎵╁ぇ鍥犲瓙娉曟楠屽閲嶅叡绾挎€ф楠? 寰楀埌鏂瑰樊鎵╁ぇ鍥犲瓙灏忎簬10, 璇存槑浜屾璋冩暣鍚庣殑妯″瀷涓嶅瓨鍦ㄥ閲嶅叡绾挎€с€傞€氳繃缁熻鎺ㄦ柇妫€楠屽彲浠ヨ幏寰?鎷熷悎浼樺害妫€楠?R2=0.961134鎺ヨ繎浜?, 琛ㄦ槑妯″瀷瀵规牱鏈暟鎹嫙鍚堢▼搴﹂珮銆侳妫€楠?F=185.4685, 瀵瑰簲鐨凱rob=0.000000鏄庢樉灏忎簬0.05, 琛ㄦ槑妯″瀷绾挎€у叧绯绘樉鐫€, 鍗宠В閲婂彉閲弆nX1銆佸啘鏉戜汉鍧囧彲鏀厤鏀跺叆X3鑱斿悎璧锋潵瀵硅瑙i噴鍙橀噺lnY鏈夋樉鐫€褰卞搷銆俆妫€楠?lnX1銆佸啘鏉戜汉鍧囧彲鏀厤鏀跺叆X3鐨則鍊煎搴旂殑Prob鍊煎潎灏忎簬0.05, 琛ㄦ槑杩欎簺鍙傛暟瀵筶nY鏈夋樉鐫€褰卞搷銆傛渶鍚庤繘琛岃閲忕粡娴庡妫€楠屻€傚埄鐢╓hite妫€楠屽紓鏂瑰樊, 寰楀埌:nR2=6.39306< (4) =9.48773 prob (nR2) =0.269 8 28>0.05, 琛ㄦ槑妯″瀷涓嶅瓨鍦ㄥ紓鏂瑰樊銆傚埄鐢―W妫€楠岃嚜鐩稿叧:瀵规牱鏈暟n=1 8, 瑙i噴鍙橀噺涓暟k’=2, 缁欏畾鏄剧潃鎬ф按骞?alpha;=0.0 5, 鏌 W缁熻琛ㄥ緱, d L=1.0 4 6, d U=1.5 3 5, 鑰宒 L=1.0 4 6<D W=1.4 1 9 9 4 9<d U=1.5 3 5, 涓嶈兘鍒ゅ畾妯″瀷鏄惁瀛樺湪涓€闃惰嚜鐩稿叧銆侭 G妫€楠?棣栧厛閫夋嫨婊炲悗鏈熶负1, 寰楀埌:nR2=1.243448< (1) =3.84146, prob (nR2) =0.264807澶т簬缁欏畾鐨勬樉鐫€鎬ф按骞?alpha;=0.05, 琛ㄦ槑妯″瀷涓嶅瓨鍦ㄤ竴闃惰嚜鐩稿叧銆傚啀閫夋嫨婊炲悗鏈熶负2, 寰楀埌:nR2=2.056042< (2) =5.99147, prob (nR2) =0.357714澶т簬缁欏畾鐨勬樉鐫€鎬ф按骞?alpha;=0.05, 琛ㄦ槑妯″瀷涓嶅瓨鍦ㄤ簩闃惰嚜鐩稿叧銆?/span>

銆€銆€浜斻€佺粨璁哄強寤鸿

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銆€銆€涓婃捣甯傜殑浜鸿韩淇濋櫓涓篃鍙互鍙嶆槧鍑烘垜鍥藉闄╃殑閮ㄥ垎鐜扮姸銆傛垜鍥界殑缁忔祹鍙戝睍姘村钩涓€鐩寸ǔ姝ュ闀? 缁忔祹鎷夊姩鍐呴渶, 甯傚満鐨勫彂灞曡秼鍚戣祫鏈寲, 琛屼笟鑷富鎬ц緝楂? 杩欎簺閮戒负淇濋櫓琛屼笟鐨勫彂灞曟彁渚涗簡蹇呰鏉′欢銆備絾鍚屾椂涔熼潰涓翠竴浜涢棶棰? 渚嬪鍐滄潙浜哄彛鍩烘暟杈冨ぇ, 灞呮皯鏁翠綋淇濋櫓鎰忚瘑鏈夊緟澧炲己銆傚洜姝? 褰撳墠浠嶇劧闇€瑕佸姞寮哄啘鏉戝熀纭€璁炬柦寤鸿, 鍔犲揩鍩庝埂涓€浣撳寲杩涚▼, 鍔犲ぇ鎶曡祫鍐滄潙缁忔祹, 璋冩暣鍐滀笟缁撴瀯, 鎺ㄥ姩鍐滀骇鍝佺鎶€鐮斿彂, 寮€鎷撳湴鍖虹壒鑹蹭骇涓氥€傚悓鏃? 鍑忓皯鍐滀笟绋? 鏀垮簻缁欎簣閫傚綋鏀跨瓥鎵舵寔, 榧撳姳鍙備繚銆傞€傚綋鏀惧紑瀵逛簬鍐滄潙鍦板尯鐨勪繚闄╀笟鐩戠, 瀵硅嚜鎰挎彁渚涘啘鏉戝眳姘戠壒瀹氬闄╃殑浼佷簨涓氬崟浣嶇粰浜堜竴瀹氳ˉ璐? 甯姪鎺ㄥ姩瀵块櫓涓嬩埂璁″垝銆傝€岀浉鍏充繚闄╄涓氬垯鍙互鎺ㄥ嚭鍐滄潙鐗硅壊淇濋櫓椤圭洰, 閽堝鍐滄潙灞呮皯鐨勭敓娲荤幆澧冪壒鐐? 鎻愪緵绗﹀悎鍐滄潙灞呮皯闇€姹傜殑瀵块櫓椤圭洰, 鍔犲ぇ瀹d紶鍔涘害, 寮€灞曚笅涔″璁? 绠€鍖栨姇淇濇祦绋? 浣夸繚闄╄蹇垫繁妞嶅啘鏉? 鎷撳鍐滄潙淇濋櫓甯傚満銆?/span>

銆€銆€鍙傝€冩枃鐚?/strong>

銆€銆€[1]鍗滄尟鍏? 鐜嬪欢鍩?鎴戝浗淇濋櫓鏈烘瀯鏁堢巼鐮旂┒缁艰堪[J].閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鐮旂┒.2014 (11)
銆€銆€[2]楂樹繆, 闄堢姝? 閭㈠畯娲?涓浗浜鸿韩淇濋櫓甯傚満鏁堢巼娴嬬畻——鍩轰簬闅忔満鍓嶆部鍒嗘瀽鐨勫疄璇佺爺绌禰J].淇濋櫓鐮旂┒. 2013 (11)

纭曞崥璁烘枃缃?/a>鏄竴瀹朵笓涓氭彁渚涜鏂囧畾鍒朵慨鏀规湇鍔$殑缃戠珯锛屼笂10骞寸殑璁烘枃缁忛獙锛屾棤璁烘槸鏈璁烘枃銆佺澹鏂囪繕鏄湡鍒婅鏂囷紝鍗氬+璁烘枃锛屾垜浠兘鑳戒负鎮ㄦ彁渚涙柟渚裤€佸揩鎹枫€佸畨鍏ㄧ殑璁烘枃鏈嶅姟銆?/strong>

 

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纭曞崥鍘熷垱璁烘枃缃? 娆㈣繋鎮ㄧ殑鍜ㄨ锛佹垜浠皢涓烘偍鎻愪緵鏈€浼樿川銆侀珮鏁堢殑鏈嶅姟锛?br /> 涓撲笟鏈嶅姟锛屼紭璐ㄥ洟闃燂紝璇氫俊楂樻晥锛屽€煎緱淇¤禆锛?br /> 婀業CP澶?9012525鍙?/a>

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