鎮ㄥソ锛屾杩庢偍鏉ュ埌纭曞崥鍘熷垱璁烘枃缃戯紒
璁烘枃鎻愮翰 | 寮€棰樻姤鍛?/a> | 璁烘枃鎽樿 | 鍙傝€冩枃鐚?/a> | 璁烘枃鑷磋阿 | 璁烘枃淇敼 | 璁烘枃閫夐 | 鐮旂┒鐢熻鏂?/a> | 宸ョ▼纭曞+ | 璁烘枃鍙戣〃 | 鏂囩尞缁艰堪 | 璁烘枃鏍煎紡
璁烘枃PPT妯℃澘 | 娉曞璁烘枃 | 甯傚満钀ラ攢 | 璇█瀛﹁鏂?/a> | 宸ョ▼绠$悊 | 绠$悊璁烘枃 | 閲戣瀺璁烘枃 | 鎶ょ悊璁烘枃 | 鑻辫璁烘枃 | 鍐滀笟璁烘枃 | 鏀挎不璁烘枃
>> 鏌愭潙鏀瑰眳绀惧尯缃戞牸鍖栫鐞嗛棶棰樻帰绌?/a>
>> 澶т綋绉贩鍑濆湡缁撴瀯鏂藉伐鐨勫噯澶囦笌鎶€鏈?/a>
>> 鐢靛奖銆婂織鎰胯€呫€嬭〃杈剧殑浜虹敓浠峰€艰鎺?/a>
>> 鏂板啝鐤儏涓嬬噧姘斿共琛f満鐨勫伐浣滃師鐞嗗強
>> 鍩轰簬澶ф暟鎹殑浼佷笟绠$悊闂涓庡垱鏂扮瓥
>> 褰撲唬澶у鐢熺殑淇′话銆佷汉鐢熺洰鏍囧拰浠峰€?/a>
>> 浼佷笟绠$悊涓祫浜ц瘎浼扮殑搴旂敤鏁堟灉鍒嗘瀽
>> 娴呮瀽褰卞搷璧勪骇璇勪及缁撴灉鐨勫洜绱?/a>
>> 涓浗鍥介槻鎴樼暐鍐呮兜瑙f瀽
>> 銆婄嫾鍥捐吘銆嬬炕璇戠瓥鐣ョ殑杩愮敤
>> 浜掕仈缃?瀵逛紒涓氱粡娴庣鐞嗗垱鏂扮殑褰卞搷鍙?/a>
>> 鍐滀笟缁忔祹绠$悊鍙婃妧鏈帹骞块棶棰樹笌瀵圭瓥
>> 浼︾悊瑙嗚涓嬫硶寰嬪叧绯荤殑鎺㈢┒
>> 姹熻タ鍑诲墤淇变箰閮ㄨ繍鍔ㄦ瘮璧涘紑灞曟帰绌?/a>
>> 楂樿亴绡悆鏁欏涓瓨鍦ㄧ殑闂涓庢敼闈╃瓥
>> 鍐滄潙灏忓璇枃璇惧墠棰勪範鐨勪綔鐢ㄤ笌瀹炴柦
>> 鍒濅腑鍖栧鏁欏涓叮鍛冲寲瀛﹀疄楠岀殑杩愮敤
>> 鎶戦儊鐥囧悍澶嶆偅鑰呭疄鏂界患鍚堝績鐞嗘姢鐞嗙殑
>> 绮剧鍒嗚鐥囨偅鑰呮仮澶嶄腑浜烘€у寲鎶ょ悊骞?/a>
>> 缃戠害杞︾殑娉曞緥鍏崇郴鍙婂叾瑙勫埗璺緞鍒嗘瀽
>> 椹亽鏄屽皬缁勭簿绁炵殑瀹炶返涓庣悊璁虹粨鍚?/a>
>> 娴呰皥涓氳储铻嶅悎涓嬭储鍔′汉鍛樼殑鍥板涓庤浆
>> 鎴垮湴浜у競鍦洪渶姹傜壒鎬т笌钀ラ攢鍏宠仈鍥犵礌
>> 鐏姏鍙戠數浼佷笟鑺傝兘鍑忔帓闂涓庡绛?/a>
>> 淇℃伅鍖栬儗鏅笅璐㈠姟浼氳宸ヤ綔鐨勯闄╁強
 
>> 鎮ㄧ殑浣嶇疆锛?a href='http://flywand.com/'>涓婚〉 > 璁烘枃鑼冩枃 > 閲戣瀺璁烘枃 >  

閲戣瀺姣曚笟璁烘枃鑼冩枃绮鹃€塤10绡?/h1>

銆€
鏈枃鏄竴绡囬噾铻嶈鏂囷紝閲戣瀺锛團INANCE锛夊氨鏄鐜版湁璧勬簮杩涜閲嶆柊鏁村悎涔嬪悗锛屽疄鐜颁环鍊煎拰鍒╂鼎鐨勭瓑鏁堟祦閫氥€傦紙涓撲笟鐨勮娉曟槸锛氬疄琛屼粠鍌ㄨ搫鍒版姇璧勭殑杩囩▼锛岀嫮涔夌殑鍙互鐞嗚В涓洪噾铻嶆槸鍔ㄦ€佺殑璐у竵缁忔祹瀛︺€傦級銆傦紙浠ヤ笂鍐呭鏉ヨ嚜鐧惧害鐧剧锛変粖澶╀负澶у鎺ㄨ崘涓€绡囬噾铻嶈鏂囷紝渚涘ぇ瀹跺弬鑰冦€?/div>
 

涓撲笟閲戣瀺姣曚笟璁烘枃鑼冩枃绮鹃€夌瘒涓€

 
缁
 
(涓€) 璁烘枃閫夐鐨勮儗鏅?/div>
闅忕潃閲戣瀺鍒涙柊鐨勫彂灞曞拰閾惰绔炰簤鐨勫姞鍓э紝閾惰绛夐噾铻嶆満鏋勫湪寮€鍙戜紶缁熺ǔ鍋ュ瀷浜у搧澶栵紝瓒婃潵瓒婂€惧悜浜庢帹鍑哄叿鏈夋洿楂橀闄╁拰鏀剁泭缁勫悎鐨勭粨鏋勬€т骇鍝侊紝涔熷氨鏄祵鍏ヤ簡杩滄湡銆佹湡璐х殑琛嶇敓浜у搧銆傞噾铻嶈鐢熷搧鐨勫競鍦鸿妯′篃瓒婃潵瓒婂ぇ銆傝嚦2007骞达紝缇庡浗閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍊煎凡楂樿揪600涓囦嚎缇庡厓锛屾槸缇庡浗GDP鐨?5鍊嶅锛岃繖浜?ldquo;澶ц妯¢噾铻嶆潃浼ゆ€ф鍣?rdquo;鏈€缁堝鑷翠簡2008骞寸殑閲戣瀺鍗辨満銆?004骞?鏈?鏃ヤ腑鍥介摱鐩戜細棰佸竷瀹炴柦浜嗐€婇噾铻嶆満鏋勮鐢熶骇鍝佷氦鏄撲笟鍔$鐞嗘殏琛屽姙娉曘€嬶紝瀵归噾铻嶆満鏋勫紑鍔為噾铻嶈鐢熷搧浜ゆ槗涓氬姟鍋氬嚭浜嗚鑼冿紝涓昏浠庡競鍦哄噯鍏ャ€佸唴鎺ф満鍒跺拰椋庨櫓鐩戠绛夋柟闈㈡槑纭竴鑸洃绠″師鍒欏拰鍩烘湰绠$悊瑙勮寖锛屼絾鏄閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佹湰韬殑涓氬姟杩愪綔涓庨闄╃鐞嗕粛鏈秹鍙娿€傜幇浠i噾铻嶅彂灞曚娇浠讳綍甯傚満瑕佺礌涔嬮棿閮藉彲鑳借繘琛屽珌鎺ュ拰缁勫悎锛屼换浣曞樊寮傜殑瀛樺湪閮芥湁浜у搧鍒涙柊寮€鍙戠殑鍙兘锛屾斂搴滅洃绠℃棤璁烘槸鍦ㄤ綋鍒惰璁¤繕鏄湪鐩戠鐞嗗康涓婇兘搴旇鍙婃椂閫傚簲閲戣瀺鍒涙柊鍙橀潻鐨勮姹傘€傜敱浜庨噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満鑷韩鐨勯噸瑕佸湴浣嶅拰楂橀闄╂€э紝鐩稿簲鐩戠鐨勮璁′笉鑳戒粛璧颁箣鍓嶅厛鍙戝睍鍐嶆不鐞嗙殑鑰佽矾锛屽畠涓€鏂归潰浼氶€犳垚宸ㄥぇ鐨勭ぞ浼氭垚鏈紝鍙︿竴鏂归潰涔熶細鎸激鎶曡祫鑰呯殑淇″績锛屼粠鑰屽欢缂撴垜鍥藉彂灞曟瀯寤洪噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満鐨勬浼愩€備负姝わ紝鎴戜滑闇€瑕佷粠鏇寸郴缁熺殑瑙掑害鍘昏€冭檻锛岃璇嗗競鍦烘湭鏉ョ殑鍙戝睍瓒嬪娍锛岄€夊ソ鍙戝睍鏂瑰悜锛屽噺灏戦噸澶嶅缓璁撅紝瀹屽杽鏀垮簻瀵归噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満鐨勭洃绠℃帾鏂斤紝鍔姏鏋勫缓楂樻晥鐨勯噾铻嶈鐢熷搧鐩戠妯″紡銆?/div>
 
(浜? 璁烘枃鐮旂┒鐨勭洰鐨勫拰鎰忎箟
鐩墠鍥藉唴閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦虹殑鍙戝睍杩樺浜庤捣姝ラ樁娈碉紝鏀垮簻瀵瑰叾鐩戠涔熶富瑕佷緷鎹?004骞村叕甯冧簡銆婇噾铻嶆満鏋勮鐢熶骇鍝佷氦鏄撲笟鍔$鐞嗘殏琛屽姙娉曘€嬶紝浣嗚鍔炴硶瀵瑰悇绫婚噾铻嶈鐢熷搧鏈韩鐨勪笟鍔¤繍浣滀笌椋庨櫓绠$悊灏氭湭娑夊強锛屽湪鐩戠妯″紡鍙婃帾鏂戒笂杩樺瓨鍦ㄧ己澶憋紝鐮旂┒鎴戝浗閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦虹殑鏀垮簻鐩戠鎺柦鍏锋湁鏄庣‘鐨勭洰鐨勫拰绉瀬鐨勬剰涔夈€?/div>
 
1.鐮旂┒鎴戝浗閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦虹殑鏀垮簻鐩戠鎺柦鐨勭洰鐨?/div>
(1)鍒嗘瀽鎴戝浗閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦烘斂搴滅洃绠$幇鐘跺苟鎵惧嚭鏀垮簻瀵硅繖涓€甯傚満鐨勭洃绠$己澶憋紝纭珛鐩戠鐨勯噸鐐瑰拰鏂瑰悜銆?/div>
(2)鍒嗘瀽鍥藉鍏堣繘鐩戠鎺柦锛屾壘鍑洪€傚悎涓浗鍥芥儏鐨勭洃绠℃帾鏂斤紝涓烘垜鍥藉湪閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦虹洃绠℃柟闈㈢殑绔嬫硶鎻愪緵渚濇嵁銆?/div>
(3)瀵瑰畬鍠勬斂搴滃閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦虹殑鐩戠鎺柦鎻愬嚭寤鸿锛屼娇鎴戝浗閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦虹殑鏀垮簻鐩戠涓庣粡娴庡彂灞曞崗璋冧竴鑷达紝淇冭繘鎴戝浗閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦哄仴搴枫€佺ǔ姝ュ彂灞曘€?/div>
 
2.鐮旂┒鎴戝浗閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦虹殑鏀垮簻鐩戠鎺柦鐨勬剰涔?/div>
(1)鍦ㄥ綋鍓嶇粡娴庡叏鐞冨寲鐨勭幆澧冧笅锛岄噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満瑙勯伩椋庨櫓鐨勪綔鐢紝瀵逛紒涓氬湪鍙戝睍澹ぇ涓婃樉寰楀挨涓洪噸瑕侊紝浼佷笟鍙互閫氳繃閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦烘潵瑙勯伩椋庨櫓锛屼娇浼佷笟鏁堢泭淇濆€硷紝鎻愬崌绔炰簤鍔涳紝鏇村ソ鐨勫簲瀵规潵鑷叾浠栧浗闄呭ぇ浼佷笟鐨勬寫鎴橈紝淇冧娇姘戞棌浼佷笟鍋ュ悍銆佺ǔ姝ュ彂灞曪紝鍏锋湁鍗佸垎閲嶈鐨勬剰涔夈€?/div>
(2)閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佺殑宸ㄥぇ椋庨櫓鎬э紝淇冧娇瀵瑰叾鐩戠涔熻鏀惧湪涓€涓噸瑕佺殑浣嶇疆銆傝€屾斂搴滅洃绠″張鍦ㄥ叾涓崰涓诲鍦颁綅锛屽埗瀹氭硶寰嬫硶瑙勶紝閫夋嫨鐩戠浣撶郴绛夈€傝€屼笖瀵归噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満鐨勬斂搴滅洃绠¤绗﹀悎鍥藉唴缁忔祹鍙戝睍鐜锛屽湪鍥藉唴缁忔祹鍙堝ソ鍙堝揩鍙戝睍鐨勫悓鏃讹紝浠庢ā寮忓拰鎺柦涓婂畬鍠勬垜鍥芥斂搴滃閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦虹殑鐩戠锛屼娇鎴戝浗閲戣瀺甯傚満骞崇ǔ銆佹湁搴忓悜鍓嶆帹杩涖€?/div>
 
(涓?鍥藉唴澶栨湁鍏崇爺绌剁幇鐘?/div>
 
1. 鍥藉唴鐮旂┒鐜扮姸
2004骞村垬閿¤壇鐨勩€婁腑鍥界粡娴庤浆杞ㄦ椂鏈熼噾铻嶅畨鍏ㄩ棶棰樼爺绌躲€嬩腑鎸囧嚭閲戣瀺椋庨櫓绠$悊鐨勮兘鍔涘湪琛嶇敓鍝佷氦鏄撲腑姣棤鐤戦棶鏄帓鍦ㄧ涓€浣嶇殑銆傞闄╃鐞嗗浜ゆ槗鑰呰€岃█鏄闄╂帶鍒讹紝瀵圭洃绠¢儴闂ㄨ€岃█鏄闄╅槻鑼冧笌鍖栬В銆傛垜鍥介渶瑕佺户缁ǔ濡ュ湴鎺ㄨ繘閲戣瀺鍒涙柊鍜岄噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満锛屼絾鏄湪缂轰箯缁忛獙銆佹悶涓嶆噦閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佹椂锛岄噾铻嶅垱鏂扮殑姝ヤ紣搴旇瀹℃厧銆佺ǔ濡ャ€傜敱浜庨噾铻嶈鐢熷搧鍦ㄦ垜鍥界殑鍙戝睍杩樺浜庤捣姝ラ樁娈碉紝澶氭暟鐮旂┒鑰呰涓哄簲绉瀬绋冲Ε鍦ㄦ垜鍥借繘琛岄噾铻嶈鐢熷搧鍒涙柊锛屽仛鍒颁袱涓钩琛?涓€鏄噾铻嶅垱鏂颁笌閲戣瀺鐩戠瑕佸钩琛?浜屾槸瀹炰綋缁忔祹涓庤櫄鎷熺粡娴庤骞宠 銆傚浗鍐呭ぇ閮ㄥ垎鐨勭爺绌惰繕鍙槸鍋滅暀鍦ㄥ椋庨櫓鐨勬帶鍒朵笂锛岀湅鍒颁簡杩涘叆琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦虹殑椋庨櫓鎬э紝浣嗗浜庡浣曞埗瀹氭湁鏁堢殑鐩戠锛岃杩欎竴甯傚満鍋ュ悍绋虫鐨勫彂灞曟病鏈夋繁鍏ョ殑鐮旂┒銆?008骞存垚鎬濆嵄鍙戣〃銆婁腑鍥介噾铻嶈鐢熷搧闂鐮旂┒銆嬶紝鎻愬嚭瀵归噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満瑕侀€傚害銆佸叕姝g洃绠°€傞€傚害鐩戠灏辨槸鏃㈣绠″緱浣忥紝鍙堣鏀惧緱寮€銆備富寮犳斂搴滆渚ч噸浜庡紩瀵煎拰璋冭妭锛岃€屼笉鏄鏀垮鎵瑰拰骞查銆傝杞彉鏀垮簻鑱岃兘锛屾妸鐩戠鏈烘瀯鐨勮鏀跨洃绠′笌浜ゆ槗鎵€鐨勮嚜寰嬬洃绠$粨鍚堣捣鏉ワ紝鍔犲揩鍚勯」娉曞緥娉曡鐨勫埗瀹氾紝瀹屽杽绀句細涓讳箟甯傚満缁忔祹锛屽彂鎸ュ競鍦哄湪閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佺洃绠′腑鐨勪綔鐢ㄣ€傝€屽叕姝g洃绠★紝鏄洃绠¢儴闂ㄨ淇濋殰甯傚満浜ゆ槗鐨勫叕寮€銆佸叕骞冲拰鍏锛屼繚鎶ゆ姇璧勮€呯殑鍚堟硶鏉冪泭銆傚崄灞婂叏鍥戒汉澶т簲娆′細璁€氳繃鐨勩€婄墿鏉冩硶銆嬭瀹氾紝蹇呴』淇濋殰鎵€鏈夊競鍦轰富浣撶殑骞崇瓑娉曞緥鍦颁綅鍜屽彂灞曟潈鍒╋紝璁╁悇绫诲競鍦轰富浣撳湪缁熶竴鐨勫競鍦轰笂澶勪簬骞崇瓑鍦颁綅锛屼韩鏈夊悓绛夋潈鍒╋紝閬靛畧鐩稿悓瑙勫垯锛屾壙鎷呯浉鍚岃矗浠汇€傚悓鏃惰繕鎻愬埌锛岀洃绠¢儴闂ㄨ涓庢椂淇辫繘锛屽湪涓嶆柇鍙樺寲鐨勫競鍦轰腑鎻愰珮鐩戠鑳藉姏锛屽鍚勯」閲戣瀺鍒涙柊鏍规嵁鐜板疄鍥芥儏鍒跺畾鐩稿簲鐨勭洃绠$瓥鐣ワ紝鐩稿簲鐨勭洃绠℃硶寰嬫硶瑙勪篃搴斾笉鏂畬鍠勶紝浣垮叾閫傚簲鐜板疄闇€姹傦紝淇冭繘鎴戝浗閲戣瀺浣撶郴鐨勫仴鍏ㄣ€?/div>
 
涓€銆?閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦哄強鏀垮簻鐩戠鐩稿叧姒傝堪
鎵€璋撻噾铻嶈鐢熷搧鏄鏈潵鏌愪釜鏃舵湡鐗瑰畾璧勪骇鐨勬潈鍒╁拰涔夊姟浣滃嚭瀹夋帓鐨勯噾铻嶅崗璁紝涔嬫墍浠ヨ绉颁箣涓?ldquo;琛嶇敓鍝?rdquo;锛屾槸鍥犱负瀹冮€氬父閮戒粠鍘熺敓璧勪骇娲剧敓鍑烘潵銆傞噾铻嶈鐢熷搧鐨勬蹇靛湪瀹炲姟涓洿涓哄娉涳紝鎸囨牴鎹煇绉嶇浉鍏宠祫浜х殑棰勬湡浠锋牸鍙樺寲鑰屽畾鍊肩殑閲戣瀺宸ュ叿銆傗憼閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佺殑浜х敓鍜屽彂灞曟槸閲戣瀺鍒涙柊鐨勯噸瑕佺粍鎴愰儴鍒嗐€傞噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満鏄熀浜庨噾铻嶈鐢熷搧褰㈡垚鐨勪氦鏄撱€佺鐞嗗競鍦恒€傛斂搴滅洃绠″湪瀛︽湳鐣屼竴鑸О涔嬩负鏀垮簻瑙勫埗鎴栫鍒讹紝鏄競鍦虹粡娴庢潯浠朵笅鏀垮簻涓哄疄鐜版煇浜涘叕鍏辨斂绛栫洰鏍囷紝瀵瑰井瑙傜粡娴庝富浣撹繘琛岀殑瑙勮寖涓庡埗绾︺€備富瑕侀€氳繃瀵圭壒瀹氫骇涓氬拰寰缁忔祹娲诲姩涓讳綋鐨勮繘鍏ャ€侀€€鍑恒€佽祫璐ㄣ€佷环鏍煎強娑夊強鍥芥皯鍋ュ悍銆佺敓鍛藉畨鍏ㄣ€佸彲鎸佺画鍙戝睍绛夎涓鸿繘琛岀洃鐫c€佺鐞嗘潵瀹炵幇銆?/div>
 
(涓€) 閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佺殑鍒嗙被銆佺壒鐐瑰拰鍔熻兘鍙婇噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満
铏借閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸湪閲戣瀺涓氬彂灞曞垵鏈熷氨宸茬粡鍑虹幇锛屼絾鐜颁唬鎰忎箟涓婄殑閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佷骇鐢熶簬20涓栫邯70骞翠唬锛岀敱缇庡浗鑺濆姞鍝ュ晢鍝佷氦鏄撴墍(CME)浜?972骞?鏈堟帹鍑虹殑涓栫晫棣栧紶鍦哄唴浜ゆ槗鐨勫姹囨湡璐у悎绾︼紝灞炰簬閲戣瀺鏈熻揣鐨勪竴绉嶏紝瀹冪殑鍑虹幇锛屾爣蹇楃潃鐜颁唬閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸簲鐢ㄧ殑寮€绔€傞殢鍚庯紝甯傚満涓婂紑濮嬪嚭鐜版洿澶氱绫荤殑閲戣瀺鏈熻揣鍚堢害銆傝繘鍏?0涓栫邯80骞翠唬锛岀敱浜庝紬澶氬ぇ鍨嬮噾铻嶆満鏋勭殑浠嬪叆锛屼互鏌滃彴浜ゆ槗(OTC)褰㈠紡涓轰富鐨勬湡鏉冨拰浜掓崲浜ゆ槗鍑虹幇骞跺緱鍒板箍娉涘簲鐢ㄣ€傝嚦20涓栫邯90骞翠唬鑷充粖锛屾柊鐨勯噾铻嶈鐢熷搧鐨勪娇鐢ㄨ妯′笉鏂墿灞曪紝閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦哄凡閫愭笎瓒嬪悜鎴愮啛锛屽湪閲戣瀺甯傚満涓婂彂鎸ョ潃瓒婃潵瓒婇噸瑕佺殑浣滅敤銆?/div>
 
浜屻€佹垜鍥介噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満鐨勬斂搴滅洃.......... 15-22 
    (涓€) 鎴戝浗閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦虹殑娉曞緥娉曡.......... 15-17 
    (浜? 鎴戝浗閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦虹殑鏀垮簻鐩?.........17-19 
    (涓? 鎴戝浗鑲℃寚鏈熻揣鐨勬斂搴滅洃绠℃帾鏂?......... 19-22 
涓夈€佸彂杈惧浗瀹堕噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満鐨勬斂搴滅洃绠?......... 22-26 
鍥涖€佸畬鍠勬垜鍥介噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満鐨勬斂搴滅洃绠℃帾鏂?..........26-32 
    (涓€) 瀹屽杽閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦虹浉鍏虫硶寰?..........26-27 
    (浜? 澶勭悊濂藉競鍦哄煿鑲插拰鏀垮簻鐩戠鐨勫叧绯?.........27-28 
    (涓? 鍔犲揩鐩戠妯″紡鐢辨満鏋勭洃绠″悜鍔?......... 28 
    (鍥? 鍔犲己瀵归噾铻嶈鐢熷搧鍒涙柊鐨勭洃绠?..........28-29 
    (浜? 瀹屽杽閲戣瀺椋庨櫓棰勮鏈哄埗.......... 29-30 
(鍏? 鍙戞尌绀句細鐩戠潱鐨勪綔鐢?......... 30-32
 
缁撹
 
鎴戝浗闇€瑕侀噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満锛屼絾鍚屾牱瑕佸閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦鸿繘琛屼弗鏍肩殑鐩戠锛屽挨鍏舵槸鍦ㄤ綔涓轰富瀵肩殑鏀垮簻鐩戠涓娿€傚湪鐜板湪鐪嬫潵锛屾垜浠噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満鐨勬斂搴滅洃绠¤繕瀛樺湪浼楀缂哄け锛屼絾闅忕潃閲戣瀺鏀归潻鐨勬繁鍖栵紝閲戣瀺浣撶郴寤鸿鏃ヨ秼瀹屽杽锛屽閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦虹殑鐩戠锛屼篃灏嗘鍏ヨ鑼冨寲銆佺郴缁熷寲闃舵銆傚氨鐩墠鐨勭洃绠$幇鐘舵潵鐪嬶紝瀹屽杽鐩稿叧娉曞緥娉曡锛岀洃绠℃ā寮忕敱鏈烘瀯鐩戠鍚戝姛鑳界洃绠¤浆鍖栵紝澶勭悊濂藉競鍦哄煿鑲插拰鏀垮簻鐩戠鐨勫叧绯伙紝寮哄寲椋庨櫓棰勮鏈哄埗锛屽姞寮哄鍒涙柊浜у搧鐨勭洃绠★紝杩樻湁鏀垮簻鎻愪緵閫傚綋骞冲彴鍙戞尌绀句細鐩戠潱浣滅敤绛夋帾鏂斤紝浠嶆槸瀹屽杽瀵归噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満鐨勬斂搴滅洃绠$殑閲嶇偣锛屽湪涓嶄箙鐨勫皢鏉ワ紝鎴戝浗閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦虹殑鏀垮簻鐩戠蹇呭皢瀹屽杽锛屼篃淇冭繘鎴戝浗甯傚満缁忔祹鐨勫彂灞曪紝甯﹀姩鍥芥皯缁忔祹鐨勫彂灞曘€?/div>
鏈枃鎸囧嚭瀹為檯鐩戠涓殑涓嶈冻锛屽苟缁撳悎鍥藉鏀垮簻鐩戠鐜扮姸鍒嗘瀽锛岀粰浜堟垜鍥藉畬鍠勯噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満鏀垮簻鐩戠鎺柦鐨勫缓璁€備絾鍦ㄦ€讳綋涓婅繕瀛樺湪寰堝涓嶈冻锛岀敋鑷抽敊璇紝杩欎簺閮介渶瑕佺瑪鑰呭湪浠婂悗鐨勭爺绌朵腑鍔犱互鏀硅繘鍜屽厠鏈嶃€傞鍏堟槸瀵规斂搴滆鏀跨鐞嗚瑙掔殑鐮斿垽鏈変簺鍋忓樊锛屽挨鍏舵槸鍦ㄧ粡娴庢椿鍔ㄤ笂鐨勬斂搴滅洃绠★紝涓嶈兘鏈夋晥鍒╃敤琛屾斂瀛︾殑鐞嗚锛屽湪瀵规斂搴滈噾铻嶇洃绠′笂鐨勮璇嗕笉瓒筹紝鐮旂┒杩囦簬绌烘硾;鍏舵鏄洰鍓嶇殑鐮旂┒灞€闄愬湪娉曞緥娉曡鐨勫埗瀹氬拰鏈烘瀯鐨勮缃笂锛屽湪椋庨櫓绠$悊銆佽祫閲戠鐞嗙瓑瑙掑害鍒嗘瀽涓嶈冻锛屽挨鍏舵槸鍒氭帹鍑虹殑鑲℃寚鏈熻揣锛屽疄璺典笂缂轰箯鏁版嵁鏀寔銆備竴涓繃绋嬬殑瀹屾垚鎬昏浼撮殢鐫€璇稿鐨勯仐鎲撅紝杩欎篃璁稿氨鏄汉绫荤敓瀛樺彂灞曘€佷笉鏂秴瓒婅嚜鎴戠殑鍔ㄥ姏锛岃鏂囪櫧鐒惰繘琛屽埌浜嗗熬澹帮紝浣嗘槸瀵归噾铻嶈鐢熷搧鐨勭洃绠$爺绌跺繀灏嗗紩璧风ぞ浼氬悇灞傜殑鍏虫敞锛岀編鍥界殑閲戣瀺鍗辨満缁欐垜浠殑鏄竴涓閱掞紝鎴戠浉淇★紝鎴戝浗鍦ㄩ噾铻嶈鐢熷搧甯傚満鐨勬斂搴滅洃绠″繀灏嗘洿鍔犲畬鍠勶紝杩欎竴甯傚満涔熷皢鏇村ソ鐨勪负鎴戝浗鐨勭幇浠g粡娴庡彂灞曟湇鍔°€?/div>
 
鍙傝€冩枃鐚?/div>
1濮氬叴娑?閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦鸿[M].涓婃捣:绔嬩俊浼氳鍑虹増绀撅紝1999.
2鏉ㄨ繄鍐涗富缂?涓栫晫閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸競鍦篬M].鍖椾含:涓浗鐗╀环鍑虹増绀撅紝2001.
3椹椽闇炪€佷弗绾㈡尝銆侀檲闈?缇庡浗鐨勯噾铻嶅垱鏂颁笌閲戣瀺鐩戠[M].姝︽眽:姝︽眽澶у鍑虹増绀撅紝1998.
4鑳$户涔?閲戣瀺琛嶇敓鍝佸強椋庨櫓绠$悊[M].鍖椾含:涓浗閲戣瀺鍑虹増绀撅紝1997.
5鍒樺畤椋?鍥介檯閲戣瀺鐩戠鐨勬柊鍙戝睍[M].鍖椾含:缁忔祹绉戝鍑虹増绀撅紝1999.
6涓浗浜烘皯閾惰鏅哄姏寮曡繘鍔炵紪钁?鍥藉閲戣瀺浣撶郴鍜岄噾铻嶇洃绠″涔犱笌鍊熼壌[M].鍖椾含:涓浗閲戣瀺鍑虹増绀撅紝2000.
7鍛ㄩ亾璁?鐜颁唬閲戣瀺鐩戠浣撳埗鐮旂┒[M].鍖椾含:涓浗閲戣瀺鍑虹増绀撅紝2000.
8閬撴牸鎷夋柉?C?璇烘€?瑗挎柟涓栫晫鐨勫叴璧穂M].鍖椾含:瀛﹁嫅鍑虹増绀撅紝1997.
9瀹嬪崕.鐜颁唬鏈熻揣鍒跺害鍙婂叾鏁堢巼[M].鍖椾含:鍐堕噾宸ヤ笟鍑虹増绀撅紝1997.
10寮犺崝绛?鍙戣揪鍥藉閲戣瀺鐩戠姣旇緝鐮旂┒[M].鍖椾含:涓浗閲戣瀺鍑虹増绀撅紝2003.
 

涓撲笟閲戣瀺姣曚笟璁烘枃鑼冩枃绮鹃€夌瘒浜?/h3>
 
1.瀵艰
 
1.1鐮旂┒鑳屾櫙鍜屾剰涔?/div>
杩涘叆21涓栫邯浠ユ潵锛岀粡娴庡叏鐞冨寲涓嶆柇娣卞叆锛屽悇鍥界殑閲戣瀺鍙戝睍姘村钩鍜屽浗闄呰锤鏄撴按骞抽兘椋為€熷彂灞曘€傞噾铻嶅競鍦鸿妯′笉鏂墿澶с€侀噾铻嶄骇鍝佸拰閲戣瀺鏈烘瀯涓嶆柇鍒涙柊銆侀噾铻嶇粨鏋勮繘涓€姝ヤ紭鍖栥€侀噾铻嶅競鍦哄埗搴﹀拰鍩烘湰璁炬柦寤鸿绋虫鎺ㄨ繘銆傚浗闄呰锤鏄撳缁忔祹鐨勬媺鍔ㄨ秺鏉ヨ秺鏄庢樉锛屽杈硅锤鏄撲綋鍒跺彈鍒版寫鎴橈紝鍏ㄧ悆鑼冨洿鐨勫尯鍩熺粡娴庡悎浣滃娍澶撮珮娑紝鍥介檯璐告槗缁撴瀯璧板悜楂樼骇鍖栵紝鏈嶅姟璐告槗鍜屾妧鏈锤鏄撳彂灞曟柟鍏存湭鑹撅紝璐告槗鎶曡祫涓€浣撳寲瓒嬪娍鏄庢樉锛岃法鍥藉叕鍙稿鍏ㄧ悆璐告槗鐨勪富瀵间綔鐢ㄦ棩鐩婂寮猴紝浣嗕笌姝ゅ悓鏃惰锤鏄撹嚜鐢卞寲鍜屼繚鎶や富涔夌殑鏂椾簤鎰堟紨鎰堢儓锛屽悇绉嶆柊鍨嬭锤鏄撳鍨掑眰鍑轰笉绌枫€傜壒鍒槸2008骞寸垎鍙戠殑甯嵎鍏ㄧ悆鐨勯噾铻嶅嵄鏈哄湪缁欏悇鍥界粡娴庡甫鏉ラ噸鍒涚殑鍚屾椂锛屼篃娉㈠強鍒颁簡鍚勫浗瀵瑰璐告槗锛屽ぇ閲忎腑灏忓瀷瀵瑰璐告槗浼佷笟鍦ㄨ鍗曚笉鏂噺灏戠敋鑷抽浂璁㈠崟鐨勫眬闈笅绾风悍鍊掗棴锛屽嚭鍙i儴闂ㄧ殑宸ヤ汉绾风悍澶变笟锛屼互缇庡浗涓洪鐨勫浗闄呰锤鏄撲繚鎶や富涔夐噸鏂版姮澶淬€?009骞达紝鎴戝浗鍑哄彛浜у搧閬彈鍥藉鍙戣捣鐨勮锤鏄撴晳娴庤皟鏌ユ浠舵暟閲忚秴杩?16璧凤紝娑夋閲戦绐佺牬127浜跨編鍏冿紝鍧囧垱鍔犲叆涓栬锤缁勭粐浠ユ潵鐨勬柊楂樸€傛垜鍥藉璐告€婚鍚屾瘮涓嬮檷13.9%銆佸嚭鍙d笅闄?6%(鍌呰嚜搴旓紝2010)鈶°€傝€屼箣鍚庢垜鍥戒负搴斿鍏ㄧ悆閲戣瀺鍗辨満鐨勬寫鎴橈紝閲囧彇浜嗙Н鏋佺殑璐㈡斂鏀跨瓥鍜屽鏉剧殑璐у竵鏀跨瓥锛岀ǔ瀹氫簡閲戣瀺甯傚満鎭㈠浜嗘姇璧勮€呯殑淇″績锛屼娇鍑哄彛浼佷笟浜у搧浼樺寲鍗囩骇锛屽璐哥粨鏋勭Н鏋佽浆鍙橈紝鍑哄彛褰㈠紡涓嶆柇濂借浆銆傜敱姝ゅ彲瑙侊紝閲戣瀺鍜岃锤鏄撳苟涓嶆槸鍒嗗壊鐨勶紝鑰屾槸褰兼鑱旂郴鐩镐簰褰卞搷鐨勩€傞殢鐫€涓栫晫缁忔祹鍏ㄧ悆鍖栧拰鍖哄煙缁忔祹涓€浣撳寲鐨勮繀鐚涘彂灞曪紝閲戣瀺棰嗗煙瀵逛簬鍥介檯璐告槗鐨勬笚閫忓拰褰卞搷灏嗕細瓒婃潵瓒婃繁鍏ワ紝閲戣瀺鍗辨満鍙兘浼氬鑷磋锤鏄撻噺钀庣缉锛岄噾铻嶆姂鍒朵細浣胯锤鏄撲骇鐢熸壄鏇诧紝閲戣瀺娣卞寲鍜岄噾铻嶅彂灞曞垯浼氫績杩涜锤鏄撹妯$殑鎵╁ぇ鍜岃锤鏄撶粨鏋勭殑浼樺寲鍗囩骇銆?/div>
鐒惰€屽湪浼犵粺鐨勯噾铻嶅彂灞曠悊璁哄拰鍥介檯璐告槗鐞嗚锛屽寘鎷琑aymondWGoldsmith1969骞存彁鍑虹殑閲戣瀺缁撴瀯璁恒€丮ckinnon鍜孲haw1973骞存彁鍑虹殑閲戣瀺鎶戝埗鍜岄噾铻嶆繁鍖栫悊璁恒€丠ellman锛孧urdoek鍜孲tiglitz绛夋彁鍑虹殑閲戣瀺绾︽潫璁恒€?0骞翠唬浠ョ帺vine涓轰唬琛ㄧ殑瀹炶瘉閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鐞嗚锛屼互鍙婂浗闄呰锤鏄撲腑Dav璁癛icardo鐨勬瘮杈冧紭鍔跨悊璁恒€丠eekscher-ohlin鐨勮绱犱韩璧嬬悊璁恒€佸拰浜т笟鍐呰锤鏄撶悊璁虹瓑绛夛紝閮芥病鏈夊閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鍜屽浗闄呰锤鏄撲箣闂寸殑鐩镐簰鍏崇郴杩涜娣卞叆鐮旂┒銆傛湰鏂囨嫙浠庣悊璁哄拰瀹炶瘉鐨勮搴﹀垎鏋愭垜鍥介噾铻嶅彂灞曟按骞冲瀵瑰璐告槗鐨勫奖鍝嶃€?/div>
 
1.1.2鐮旂┒鎰忎箟
 
(1) 鐞嗚鎰忎箟
鐜板疄涓紝閲戣瀺涓庤锤鏄撴槸涓嶅彲鍒嗗壊鐨勶紝鐒惰€岄噾铻嶄笌璐告槗鐨勭悊璁虹爺绌跺嵈闀挎湡澶勪簬鍓茶鐨勭姸鎬併€傚ぇ澶氭暟閲戣瀺瀛﹀闆嗕腑鐮旂┒閲戣瀺鍙戝睍瀵圭粡娴庡彂灞曠殑褰卞搷浠ュ強璐告槗鑷敱鍖栧缁忔祹鍙戝睍鐨勫奖鍝嶏紝鑰岃緝灏戣€冭檻閲戣瀺鍙戝睍涓庡浗闄呰锤鏄撲箣闂寸殑鍏崇郴銆傚湪浼犵粺鐨勫浗闄呯粡娴庡涓紝鍓嶅崐閮ㄥ垎鎺㈣浜嗗浗闄呰锤鏄撶悊璁猴紝鍚庡崐閮ㄥ垎璁茶堪浜嗗浗闄呴噾铻嶇悊璁猴紝涔熸湭鑳芥妸浜岃€呯粨鍚堣捣鏉ャ€傜爺绌堕噾铻嶅彂灞曚笌鍥介檯璐告槗涔嬮棿鐨勫叧绯绘湁鍔╀簬鎴戜滑鏇存繁鍏ョ殑鐞嗚В鍥介檯缁忔祹瀛︺€傞€氳繃閲戣瀺鍙戝睍瀵瑰浗闄呰锤鏄撴繁灞傛鐨勫奖鍝嶅叧绯伙紝娣卞寲琛ュ厖閲戣瀺鐞嗚鍜屽浗闄呰锤鏄撶悊璁恒€傛妸閲戣瀺鍙戝睍宸紓鑰冭檻鍒版瘮杈冧紭鍔跨悊璁轰腑鏉ワ紝閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鍙互浣滀负闄ゅ湡鍦般€佽祫鏈€佸姵鍔ㄥ姏涔嬪鐨勪竴绉嶆柊鐨勬瘮杈冧紭鍔匡紝鏉ヨВ閲婂叾瀵逛竴鍥藉浗闄呰锤鏄撶殑閲嶈褰卞搷銆傝繖鎵撶牬浜嗕紶缁熸瘮杈冧紭鍔跨悊璁轰腑鐨勫畬缇庡競鍦虹殑鑻涘埢鍋囪锛岃繖涓嶄粎鏄竴绉嶇悊璁虹獊鐮达紝涔熸洿璐磋繎鐜板疄鎯呭喌锛屽鍔犱簡姣旇緝浼樺娍鐞嗚鐨勭幇瀹炶鏈嶅姏銆傚悓鏃讹紝閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鍙堣兘鏀寔鎶€鏈殑鐮斿彂锛岄噾铻嶅彂灞曟按骞冲線寰€鍜屼竴鍥界鎶€鍙戝睍鑳藉姏鐩歌仈绯伙紝浠庤€屾繁鍖栦簡鏉庡槈鍥剧敤浜庤В閲婂浗闄呴棿璐告槗娴佸姩鐨勬妧鏈樊璺濈悊璁恒€?/div>
 
(2) 鐜板疄鎰忎箟
鍦ㄥ綋浠婂浗闄呯粡娴庤惂鏉$殑鑳屾櫙涓嬶紝鐮旂┒濂介噾铻嶅彂灞曞鍥介檯璐告槗鐨勫奖鍝嶅彲浠ュ湪閲戣瀺鏃ユ笎鑷敱鍖栫殑鐜涓紝閫氳繃褰卞搷閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鐨勮澶氬洜绱犳洿濂界殑淇冭繘鎴戝浗瀵瑰璐告槗鐨勫彂灞曘€傚鏋滄垜浠彂鐜伴噾铻嶅彂灞曠‘瀹炲鍥介檯璐告槗瑙勬ā鍏锋湁淇冭繘浣滅敤锛岄偅涔堥噾铻嶉儴闂ㄥ缁忔祹鍙戝睍鐨勯噸瑕佹€у氨涓嶄粎浠呮槸鍗曠函瀵圭粡娴庡闀跨殑绉瀬褰卞搷浜嗭紝瀹屽杽閲戣瀺甯傚満娣卞寲閲戣瀺鏀归潻鐨勪簨鎯呭氨搴斿綋鎻愭棭鏀惧埌鏀跨瓥鍒跺畾鑰呯殑鏃ョ▼閲屻€傝锤鏄撹嚜鐢卞寲鏄噾铻嶈嚜鐢卞寲鐨勫墠鎻愶紝鎴戝浗姝e浜庣敱閲戣瀺绾︽潫鍚戦噾铻嶈嚜鐢卞寲鍙戝睍鐨勮繃娓¢樁娈点€傚湪鍏ㄧ悆閲戣瀺鑷敱鍖栫殑瓒嬪娍涓嬶紝鍗忚皟濂介噾铻嶄笌鍥介檯璐告槗鐨勫叧绯伙紝鍙戞尌浠栦滑涔嬮棿鐨勮仈鍔ㄤ綔鐢ㄦ湁鍒╀簬涓烘垜鍥界粡娴庡彂灞曞甫鏉ユ渶澶у悎鍔涖€?/div>
 
2鏂囩尞缁艰堪
 
2.1鍥藉鐮旂┒鐜扮姸鍙婅堪璇?/div>
閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鐞嗚锛屼富瑕佺爺绌剁殑鏄噾铻嶅彂灞曚笌缁忔祹澧為暱鐨勫叧绯伙紝鍗崇爺绌堕噾铻嶄綋绯?鍖呮嫭閲戣瀺涓粙鍜岄噾铻嶅競鍦?銆侀噾铻嶅悇绉嶅彉閲忋€佸強閲戣瀺鍒跺害鍙橀潻瀵圭粡娴庡彂灞曞彂鎸ョ殑浣滅敤锛岀爺绌跺浣曞缓绔嬫湁鏁堢殑閲戣瀺浣撶郴鍜岄噾铻嶆斂绛栫粍鍚堜互鏈€澶ч檺搴﹀湴淇冭繘缁忔祹澧為暱銆傞噾铻嶅彂灞曠悊璁鸿悓鑺藉湪浜屾垬鍚庯紝鏂扮嫭绔嬬殑鍥藉鍦ㄧ粡娴庡彂灞曠殑杩囩▼涓潎鍙楀埌浜嗗偍钃勪笉瓒冲拰璧勯噾鐭己鐨勫埗绾︼紝閲戣瀺鍙戝睍婊炲悗鍜岄噾铻嶄綋绯昏惤鍚庣殑寮婄鍑哥幇鍑烘潵銆備竴浜涜タ鏂圭粡娴庡瀹跺紑濮嬫帰绱㈤噾铻嶅彂灞曚笌缁忔祹澧為暱鐨勫叧绯汇€俁aymondw Goldsmith(1969)鍦ㄣ€婇噾铻嶇粨鏋勪笌閲戣瀺鍙戝睍銆嬩竴涔︿腑棣栨鎻愬嚭閲戣瀺缁撴瀯鐞嗚锛屽瀹氫簡閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鐞嗚鐨勫熀纭€銆備粬璁や负閲戣瀺鐞嗚鐨勮亴璐e湪浜庢壘鍑哄喅瀹氫竴鍥介噾铻嶇粨鏋勩€侀噾铻嶅伐鍏峰瓨閲忓拰閲戣瀺浜ゆ槗娴侀噺鐨勪富瑕佺粡娴庡洜绱狅紝骞朵笖鍒涢€犳€х殑鎸囧嚭閲戣瀺鍙戝睍灏辨槸閲戣瀺缁撴瀯鐨勫彉鍖栥€備粬閫氳繃瀵?5涓浗瀹惰繎100骞寸殑璧勬枡鐮旂┒鍜岀粺璁″垎鏋愶紝閲囩敤瀹氭€у拰瀹氶噺鍒嗘瀽鐩哥粨鍚堛€佹í鍚戞瘮杈冨拰绾靛悜姣旇緝鐩哥粨鍚堢殑鏂规硶锛岀‘绔嬩簡琛¢噺涓€鍥介噾铻嶇粨鏋勫拰閲戣瀺鍙戝睍姘村钩鐨勫熀鏈寚鏍囦綋绯伙紝鍖呮嫭閲戣瀺鐩稿叧鐜囷紝閲戣瀺涓粙鐜囷紝閲戣瀺鏈烘瀯鍙戝睍闇€姹傜殑鏀跺叆寮规€э紝鍙樺紓绯绘暟绛夛紝寰楀嚭浜嗛噾铻嶇浉鍏崇巼涓庣粡娴庡彂灞曟按骞虫鐩稿叧鐨勫熀鏈粨璁恒€侻ekinnon[2]andEdward5.shaw(1973)131鎻愬嚭浜?ldquo;閲戣瀺鎶戝埗”鍜?ldquo;閲戣瀺娣卞寲”鐞嗚锛岄娆′互鍙戝睍涓浗瀹朵负瀵硅薄锛屾潵鐮旂┒閲戣瀺鍙戝睍闂銆侻ckinnon鍦ㄤ粬鐨勩€婄粡娴庡彂灞曚腑鐨勮揣甯佷笌璧勬湰銆嬩竴涔︿腑锛屾彁鍑鸿揣甯佷笌瀹炰綋璧勬湰鏄簰琛ョ殑鍏崇郴锛岃揣甯侀噾铻嶆斂绛栧鍙戝睍涓浗瀹惰祫鏈競鍦虹殑褰卞搷瑕佹瘮涓€鑸兂璞$殑鏇村ぇ銆傚彂灞曚腑鍥藉搴旇閬垮厤杩囧垎渚濊禆澶栭儴铻嶈祫锛岀Н鏋佺牬闄ゆ湰鍥介噾铻嶆姂鍒剁殑鏀跨瓥鏉ヤ績杩涚粡娴庣殑鍙戝睍銆係haw涔熷湪浠栫殑銆婄粡娴庡彂灞曚腑鐨勯噾铻嶆繁鍖栥€嬩竴涔︿腑鍗拌瘉浜嗚繖涓€瑙傜偣銆傜劧鑰屽彂灞曚腑鍥藉閲戣瀺鑷敱鍖栫殑缁撴灉鏇句竴搴︿护浜哄け鏈涳紝Hellman锛孧urdoek鍜宻tiglitz(1997)[4]鍦∕ckinnon鍜宻haw鐨勫熀纭€涓婏紝鎻愬嚭“閲戣瀺绾︽潫”鐞嗚锛屽彂琛ㄤ簡((閲戣瀺绾︽潫:涓€涓柊鐨勫垎鏋愭鏋躲€嬩竴鏂囥€傝涓洪噾铻嶇害鏉熶娇鏀垮簻閫氳繃涓€绯诲垪閲戣瀺鏀跨瓥鍦ㄦ皯闂村垱閫犵閲戯紝鏃㈤槻姝㈤噾铻嶆姂鍒剁殑鍗卞鍙堣兘鍦ㄦ斂搴滈€傚綋鐨勭害鏉熶笅淇冧娇閾惰涓诲姩瑙勯伩椋庨櫓锛屽畠鏄粙浜庨噾铻嶆姂鍒跺拰閲戣瀺鑷敱鍖栦箣闂寸殑涓€涓繃娓¢樁娈点€傞仐鎲剧殑鏄紝鏃犺鏄噾铻嶆姂鍒惰繕鏄噾铻嶇害鏉熺悊璁洪兘鍙湅鍒颁簡閲戣瀺鍙戝睍瀵逛簬缁忔祹澧為暱鐨勯噸瑕佷綔鐢紝鑰屽浗闄呰锤鏄撻噾铻嶅彂灞曚綔鐢ㄤ簬缁忔祹澧為暱鐨勯噸瑕佺殑涓€涓紶瀵煎櫒锛岃憲浣滀腑铏界劧涔熸秹鍙婂埌瀵硅繘鍑哄彛鍜屽姹囧競鍦虹殑涓€浜涘奖鍝嶏紝浣嗛噾铻嶅彂灞曚笌鍥介檯璐告槗鐨勭浉浜掑叧绯诲嵈娌℃湁琚斁鍏ュ埌浠栦滑鐨勭悊璁轰腑杩涜娣卞叆鎺㈣銆?/div>
 
3 閲戣瀺鍙戝睍瀵瑰浗闄呰锤鏄撶殑褰卞搷............ 21-28 
    3.1 鐩稿叧姒傚康鐨勭晫瀹?...........21-24 
        3.1.1 閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鐨勬蹇典笌璇勪环............ 21-23 
        3.1.2 鍥介檯璐告槗鐨勬蹇典笌璇勪环............ 23-24 
    3.2 閲戣瀺鍙戝睍閫氳繃姣旇緝浼樺娍褰卞搷鍥介檯璐告槗............24-26 
    3.3 閲戣瀺鍙戝睍閫氳繃瑙勬ā缁忔祹褰卞搷鍥介檯璐告槗............ 26-28 
4 鎴戝浗閲戣瀺鍙戝睍瀵瑰澶栬锤鏄撳奖鍝嶇殑瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽............28-44 
    4.1 鎴戝浗閲戣瀺鍙戝睍瀵瑰澶栬锤鏄撶殑褰卞搷鐘跺喌............ 28-30 
    4.2 閲戣瀺鍙戝睍閫氳繃姣旇緝浼樺娍褰卞搷瀵瑰璐告槗............30-39 
    4.3 閲戣瀺鍙戝睍閫氳繃瑙勬ā缁忔祹褰卞搷瀵瑰璐告槗............39-44 
5 缁撹涓庡惎绀?........... 44-46 
    5.1 缁撹............ 44 
5.2 鍚ず ............44-46
 
鏈枃鐮旂┒浜嗛噾铻嶅彂灞曞鍥介檯璐告槗鐨勫奖鍝嶏紝鐗瑰埆鐮旂┒浜嗛€氳繃鍥介檯璐告槗鐨勬瘮杈冧紭鍔垮拰瑙勬ā缁忔祹涓や釜浼犲閫斿緞鐨勫奖鍝嶃€傚疄璇佸垎鏋愪腑鐩存帴鑰冨療浜嗘垜鍥界殑鍏蜂綋鎯呭喌锛岄€夊彇浜?001骞?鏈堝埌2010骞?鏈堜唬琛ㄦ垜鍥介噾铻嶅彂灞曟按骞冲拰瀵瑰璐告槗鍙戝睍鐨勭浉鍏虫寚鏍囩殑鏈堝害鏁版嵁杩涜鍒嗘瀽锛屽缓绔嬩簡涓や釜妯″瀷锛屽垎鍒爺绌舵垜鍥介噾铻嶅彂灞曟按骞抽€氳繃姣旇緝浼樺娍瀵瑰澶栬锤鏄撶殑褰卞搷锛屼互鍙婃垜鍥介噾铻嶅彂灞曟按骞抽€氳繃瑙勬ā缁忔祹瀵瑰澶栬锤鏄撶殑褰卞搷銆備粠瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽涓紝淇妯″瀷涓殑瑙i噴鍙橀噺瀵硅瑙i噴鍙橀噺鍏锋湁瑙i噴鑳藉姏锛屾垜浠緱鍒板涓嬬粨璁?鎴戝浗閲戣瀺鍙戝睍涓庡澶栬锤鏄撲腑鐨勬瘮杈冧紭鍔垮拰瑙勬ā缁忔祹閮藉叿鏈夐暱鏈熷潎琛″叧绯汇€傚垎鏋愬叿浣撶殑鍥犳灉鍏崇郴锛屾垜鍥介噾铻嶅彂灞曡〃鐜颁负瀵瑰璐告槗鐨勫崟鍚戝洜鏋滃叧绯伙紝閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鑳藉閫氳繃鍙戞尌姣旇緝浼樺娍鏄捐憲鐨勪績杩涙垜鍥藉澶栬淳鏄撶殑鍙戝睍锛屼絾浠庤剦鍐插搷搴斿嚱鏁板彲浠ョ湅鍑猴紝鐭湡鍐呴噾铻嶆繁鍖栦細缁欏澶栬锤鏄撶殑姣旇緝浼樺娍甯︽潵涓€瀹氱殑璐熼潰褰卞搷銆傞噾铻嶅彂灞曞瑙勬ā缁忔祹鐨勬牸鍏版澃褰卞搷骞朵笉鏄捐憲锛屼絾瀵瑰璐告槗寮€鏀惧害鐨勫姞娣憋紝璐告槗瑙勬ā鐨勬墿澶у嵈鑳藉弽鍚戠殑淇冭繘閲戣瀺鐨勬繁鍖栧彂灞曪紝鑴夊啿鍝嶅簲鍑芥暟鏄剧ず鐭湡鍐呰揣甯侀噺鐨勫鍔犱細淇冭繘鎴戝浗璐告槗瑙勬ā鎵╁ぇ锛屽姞娣卞澶栬锤鏄撳紑鏀惧害锛岃€屼俊璐烽噺鐨勫鍔犵煭鏈熷唴鍒欎細瀵硅锤鏄撻噺鐨勬墿澶т骇鐢熶笉鍒╁奖鍝嶏紝杩欏彲鑳芥槸鐢变簬鎴戝浗閲戣瀺甯傚満杩樹笉瀹屽杽锛屼俊璐烽噺鐨勫鍔犲線寰€鏃犳硶鎯犲強鍒板箍澶ц繘鍑哄彛璐告槗琛屼笟鐨勪腑灏忎紒涓氾紝鐢氳嚦杩樹細鎸ゅ崰鍘熸湰閫氳繃闈炴瑙勯噾铻嶆満鏋勫€熻捶缁欏璐镐腑灏忎紒涓氱殑璧勯噾锛屼粠鑰屽奖鍝嶆€讳綋璐告槗瑙勬ā鐨勬墿澶с€傛棤璁烘槸鍦ㄩ暱鏈熻繕鏄煭鏈燂紝閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鐨勬寚鏍囦箣闂撮兘鏈夋鍚戠殑鐩镐簰甯﹀姩浣滅敤銆?/div>
 
鍙傝€冩枃鐚?/div>
[1] B W Arthur. Competing technologies; inereasing returns and lock in by historicalevent [J].The Eeonomie Journal, 1989
[2] Bain J . Industrial Organization [M]. New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc锛?959.
[3] Bain J . Barriers to New Competition [M]. Cambridge, Mass: Harvard UniversityPress, 1956.
[4] Batt Rosemary. Explaining wage inequality in telecommunications services:Custome rsegmentation, human resource practices and union declme[J].Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 2001(10): 19-28
[5] Boyer, Mai cel. A Habit Forming Optimal Growth Model [J]. InternationalEconomic Review, 1978(19)
[6] Boyer锛孧aicel. Rational Demand and Expenditures Patterns under HabitFormation [J]. Journal of Economic Theory, 1983(31).
[7] Brynjolfsson, Erik锛孧ichael D Smith, Jeffrey Hu. Consumer surplus in the digitaleconomy: Estimating the value of increased product variety at online booksellers[J].Management Science, 2003(11): 87-89.
[8] Chakravorti, Sujit. Theory of credit card networks: A survey of the literature [J].Review of Network Economics, 2003(12):103-112.
[9] Chaloupka锛孎rank. Rational Addiction Addictive Behavior and Cigarette Smoking[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1991(99).
[10] ChappelL Davies, Griffiths. Online Computer Gaming [J]. Journal of AmerieanAcademy of Business, 2004(7):87-96.
 

涓撲笟閲戣瀺姣曚笟璁烘枃鑼冩枃绮鹃€夌瘒涓?/h3>
 
绗竴绔?2008-2009 骞翠縿缃楁柉缁忔祹鍗辨満鑳屾櫙鍒嗘瀽
 
鐢辩編鍥芥璐峰嵄鏈哄紩鍙戠殑涓栫晫閲戣瀺鍗辨満鑲嗚檺鍏ㄧ悆锛屽嚑涔庢病鏈夊浗瀹惰兘澶熷垢鍏嶏紝鑰屼縿缃楁柉涓庡ぇ澶氭暟鍥藉鐩告瘮缁忔祹琛伴€€鏇翠弗閲嶏紝鎴愪负鍏ㄧ悆閲戣瀺鍗辨満鐨勯噸鐏惧尯锛屾湰浜鸿涓轰縿缃楁柉缁忔祹鍗辨満鐨勪骇鐢熶富瑕佹湁涓栫晫閲戣瀺鍗辨満鐨勫奖鍝嶅拰淇勭綏鏂粡娴庣殑鑴嗗急鎬т袱涓柟闈€?/div>
鈥?/div>
绗竴鑺?涓栫晫閲戣瀺鍗辨満瀵逛縿缃楁柉鐨勫奖鍝?/div>
涓栫晫閲戣瀺鍗辨満鏄寚鍑犱釜鍥藉鎴栧湴鍖哄ぇ閮ㄥ垎鎴栧叏閮ㄩ噾铻嶆寚鏍囩煭鏆傘€佹€ュ墽銆佽秴鍛ㄦ湡鐨勬伓鍖栵紝缁忔祹瑙勬ā涓庣粡娴庢€婚噺鍑虹幇杈冨ぇ鐨勬崯澶憋紝缁忔祹澧為暱涓嬮檷锛屽苟浼存湁澶ч噺鐨勪紒涓氬€掗棴锛屽け涓氱巼鎻愰珮锛岃揣甯佽船鍊肩瓑鐥囩姸锛岀敋鑷充細瀵艰嚧绀句細鍜屾斂灞€鐨勫姩鑽°€傞€氬父瀹冪殑褰卞搷鍔涘法澶э紝涓旇緝闅炬姷寰″拰鎺у埗銆?/div>
 
涓€銆?閲戣瀺椋庢毚浣垮叏鐞冪粡娴庡彈鍒?/div>
缇庡浗鐢辨璐峰舰鎴愮殑閲戣瀺娉℃搏涓嶆柇鑶ㄨ儉锛屾渶缁堜簬 2008 骞?9 鏈堢牬瑁傦紝缇庡浗鍚勫ぇ浣忔埧鎶垫娂璐锋鎶曡祫鍏徃銆佹姇璧勯摱琛屻€佸晢涓氶摱琛岀浉缁у€掗棴锛岃偂甯傚ぇ璺岋紝鍒堕€犱笟钀庣缉涓ラ噸锛屽け涓氱巼杈惧埌 6.1%浠ヤ笂锛岀粡娴庡闀挎斁缂擄紝骞跺嚭鐜拌繛缁殑璐熷闀匡紝缇庡浗瀹炰綋缁忔祹鐩稿簲鍙楀埌鍗卞锛屽績鐞嗘亹鎯у強淇″績鍗辨満鍥涘寮ユ极銆傜敱浜庣編鍏?ldquo;涓栫晫璐у竵”鍦颁綅鍙婄編鍥藉湪鍏ㄧ悆閲戣瀺甯傚満涓笌鍚勯噾铻嶄綋绯荤殑绱у瘑鑱旂郴锛岃繖鍦哄嵄鏈鸿繀閫熷湴寮ユ极鍒板叏鐞冪殑鍚勪釜瑙掕惤锛岃繘鑰岀垎鍙戝叏鐞冮噾铻嶅嵄鏈猴紝瑗挎柟缁忔祹棣栧厛鍙椾弗閲嶆墦鍑伙紝2008 骞寸涓夊搴﹀拰绗洓瀛e害娆х洘缁忔祹鍑虹幇澶氬勾鏉ラ娆?0.1 鐨勫闀跨巼锛屽け涓氱巼鍦?2010 骞磋揪鍒?8.7%锛岃嫳鍥姐€佸啺宀涖€佸湡鑰冲叾鍜岃タ鐝墮绛夊浗鐨勫疄浣撶粡娴庡彈鎸弗閲嶏紝鐢氳嚦鍑虹幇璐熷闀匡紝鍏ㄧ悆鑲℃寚浜?2008 骞?9 鏈堝紑濮嬭繀閫熶笅璺岋紝鏈?20 涓囦嚎缇庡厓鐨勫競鍊肩缉姘淬€傚叏鐞冨け涓氫汉鏁?2009 骞磋揪鍒?2.1 浜夸汉锛岃传鍥板姵鍔ㄨ€呬汉鏁板鍔犮€備簹娲插紑鍙戦摱琛岃锛岄噾铻嶅ぇ娴峰暩瀵艰嚧鍏ㄧ悆鐨勯噾铻嶈祫浜т环鍊煎湪鍘诲勾缂╂按瓒呰繃50涓囦嚎缇庡厓锛屽叾涓崟鍗曞湪浜氭床鍙戝睍涓浗瀹跺氨钂稿彂浜?9 涓?6000 浜跨編鍏冪殑璧勪骇鍊笺€傗憼杩欐閲戣瀺鍗辨満鎵€閫犳垚鐨勬崯澶辩浉褰撲簬鍏ㄧ悆涓€鏁村勾鐨勫浗鍐呯敓浜ф€诲€硷紝鍏ㄧ悆缁忔祹闄峰叆浣庤糠銆備縿缃楁柉鑷充粖铏界劧涓嶆槸涓栬锤缁勭粐鎴愬憳锛屼絾涓庝笘鐣岀粡娴庝竴浣撳寲绋嬪害宸茬粡寰堟繁锛屼縿甯傚満瀵瑰璧勭殑渚濊禆绋嬪害楂樿揪 60%锛屾墍浠ヤ笘鐣岄噾铻嶅嵄鏈轰竴鏃﹀彂鐢燂紝澶栧浗鎶曡祫鑰呭氨浼氱悍绾锋挙璧勶紝鎶涘敭淇勭綏鏂摱琛岃偂绁ㄥ拰鑳芥簮鑲$エ锛屼縿缃楁柉鐨勯噾铻嶅競鍦哄繀灏嗛伃鍙楁墦鍑汇€?/div>
 
浜屻€?閲戣瀺椋庢毚
浣胯浆鍨嬪浗瀹剁粡娴庢垚涓虹粡娴庡嵄鏈洪噸鐏惧尯杞瀷鍥藉鍦ㄨ繎鍗佸嚑骞翠腑閫愭鎽嗚劚浜嗚鍒掔粡娴庣殑鏉熺細锛岀粡娴庡緱鍒拌摤鍕冪殑鍙戝睍锛岀粡娴庡闀跨巼鏅亶楂樹簬涓栫晫骞冲潎姘村钩銆傚湪杩欐閲戣瀺椋庢毚涓浆鍨嬬粡娴庡悓鏍烽伃鍙楀埌鍐插嚮锛岀敋鑷虫墍鍙楁墦鍑诲箍娉涜€屼弗閲嶃€?/div>
 
锛堜竴锛?閲戣瀺浣撶郴鍙楁崯涓ラ噸
閾惰鏀粯鍥伴毦锛屼竴浜涗腑灏忓瀷閾惰琚揩鐢卞ぇ閾惰鏀惰喘锛屽師鏈夐摱琛屼綋绯昏鐮村潖銆傝偂鎸囩媯璺岋紝涓浗銆佷縿缃楁柉銆佽秺鍗椼€佷箤鍏嬪叞銆佸寛鐗欏埄绛夊浗鑲℃寚涓嬭穼閮藉湪 2/3 浠ヤ笂銆傚崲甯冭嚜 2008 骞?7 鏈堜互鏉ュ洖钀?15%銆傜敱浜庤船鍊?灞呮皯寮€濮嬫彁鍙栨湰甯佽浆瀛樼編鍏?涓ぎ閾惰涓烘敮鎸侀摱琛岀郴缁熷簲瀵瑰眳姘戝ぇ閲忔彁鍙栧崲甯冭浆瀛樼編鍏冩垨娆у厓,宸茬粡鏀嚭浜嗘暟鐧句嚎缇庡厓銆傚竵鍊兼櫘閬嶈船鍊硷紝鍗㈠竷2008 骞村洖钀?15%锛屾皯浼楀厬鎹㈡湰甯佽浆瀛樼編鍏冿紝鍖堢墮鍒┿€佷箤鍏嬪叞绛夊浗涓嶅緱涓嶅悜鍥介檯璐у竵鍩洪噾缁勭粐鎴栨娲插ぎ琛屾眰鎻达紝鏉ュ害杩囬毦鍏炽€傝浆鍨嬪浗瀹跺澶栨姇璧勶紝鐗瑰埆鏄姹囬噾铻嶄紒涓氭崯澶卞法澶с€?/div>
 
锛堜簩锛?瀹炰綋缁忔祹缁忚惀鍥伴毦
閲戣瀺鍗辨満浣胯浆鍨嬬粡娴庡浗瀹跺闇€闄嶄綆銆佸姵鍔ㄥ姏鎴愭湰鎻愰珮锛岃繘鑰屼骇鍝佸嚭鍙f€ュ墽涓嬮檷锛屽惛寮曞璧勯攼鍑忥紝鍑哄彛瀵煎悜鍨嬩紒涓氶潰涓翠弗閲嶅嵄鏈恒€備縿缃楁柉 2008 骞翠笅鍗婂勾鍊掗棴鐨勪腑灏忓瀷浼佷笟澶氳揪 65000 瀹讹紝鏈変笂鐧句竾浜哄け涓氾紝鏀垮簻璐㈡斂鏀跺叆澧為暱鍑忕紦銆備縿缃楁柉鐨勫悇澶т腑灏忓瀷浼佷笟涔熷悓鏍峰彈鍒版嫋绱紝澶氬鍏徃瀹e憡鍑忎骇锛岃鍛橈紝鐢氳嚦鐮翠骇锛屾埅姝㈠埌2008 骞村簳淇勭綏鏂湁 403 涓囦汉澶变笟锛屽け涓氱巼杈?5.3%銆?/div>
 
锛堜笁锛?澶栬锤鏀跺叆涓嬮檷
鍏ㄧ悆閲戣瀺鍗辨満浣胯浆鍨嬪浗瀹跺閮ㄩ渶姹備笅闄嶏紝瀵艰嚧鍏跺璐稿嚭鍙i檷浣庯紝鍚稿紩澶栬祫鍋滄粸銆?008 骞?9 鏈堣嚦 2009 骞翠腑鍥芥湁鍑哄彛涓氬姟鐨勪紒涓氫粎鏈?3507 瀹讹紝鍑哄彛椤哄樊涓嬮檷锛屽嚭鍙e闀垮凡瀹為檯涓嬫粦鍒颁釜浣嶆暟銆傚璧勬娊閫冪幇璞′篃鐩哥户鍑虹幇鍦ㄤ縿缃楁柉銆佽秺鍗椼€佷腑涓滄绛夊浗瀹讹紝淇勭綏鏂?2008 骞村璧勬祦鍏ヤ笌 2007 骞寸浉姣斾笅闄嶄竴鍗娿€?/div>
 
绗簩绔?淇勭綏鏂簲瀵圭粡娴庡嵄鏈哄绛?/div>
 
闈㈠鏉ュ娍鍑剁寷缁忔祹鍗辨満锛屼縿缃楁柉鏀垮簻涓轰繚鎸佸浗瀹剁粡娴庣殑绋冲畾锛屽湪鍗辨満鐖嗗彂浼婂灏辫繀閫熶綔鍑轰簡鍙嶅簲锛屽鑲″競鍋滅洏銆佸悜閾惰鎻愪緵琛ヨ创璐锋銆侀厤閿€鍊哄埜绛夊簲鎬ユ帾鏂斤紝淇勬斂搴滄牴鎹綋鍓嶇粡娴庡舰鍔跨殑鍒ゆ柇鍒跺畾骞堕€氳繃涓€绯诲垪绾茶銆佹硶妗堬紝濡?2009 骞?6 鏈?19鏃ワ紝缁忓箍娉涘緛姹備簡绀句細鍚勭晫鐨勬剰瑙佸悗锛屽嚭鍙颁簡鐢辨櫘浜€荤悊绛惧彂鐨勩€?009 骞翠縿缃楁柉鏀垮簻鍙嶅嵄鏈烘帾鏂界翰瑕併€嬨€?009 骞?12 鏈?30 鏃ヤ縿缃楁柉鏀垮簻閫氳繃鐨勩€?010 骞存斂搴滃弽鍗辨満琛屽姩鍩烘湰鏂瑰悜銆嬶紝纭繚鍙嶅嵄鏈哄绛栫殑鏈夋晥鎬у拰鏂瑰悜鎬с€?/div>
 
绗竴鑺?瀹炴柦鍙嶅嵄鏈烘帾鏂斤紝绉瀬搴斿缁忔祹鍗辨満
闈㈠鍛煎暩鑰屾潵鐨勯噾铻嶅嵄鏈猴紝淇勭綏鏂斂搴滀紬蹇楁垚鍩庯紝绉瀬鍙戞尌鏀挎潈鏈烘瀯鐨勬牳蹇冧綔鐢紝浣垮弽鍗辨満鎺柦鏃㈣兘鏈夋晥淇冧娇缁忔祹姝e父杩愯锛屽張鑳戒娇淇勭粡娴庣潃鐪兼湭鏉ワ紝淇濇寔绔炰簤鍔涖€?/div>
 
涓€銆?瀹忚璋冩帶銆佷繚鎸侀噾铻嶄綋绯荤ǔ瀹?/div>
浣滀负鏀垮簻鑱岃兘锛屼縿缃楁柉褰撴潈鏈烘瀯鍦ㄥ浗瀹剁粡娴庡嚭鐜扮姸鍐垫椂绔嬪嵆浠庡ぇ灞€鍑哄彂锛屽畯瑙傝皟鎺э紝浠ョ‘淇濋噾铻嶄綋绯荤殑绋冲畾銆?/div>
 
锛堜竴锛?鍋滅洏闄愬埗鑲″競寮傚父
淇勭綏鏂噾铻嶅嵄鏈洪鍏堝湪鑲″競涓婃樉鐜帮紝2008 骞村浗闄呯煶娌逛环鏍肩殑鎸佺画涓嬭穼鍜屼縿缃楁柉鍗㈠竷鐨勬€ラ€熻船鍊煎鑷翠縿缃楁柉鐨勮偂甯傚嚭鐜板ぇ骞呭害涓嬭穼锛? 鏈?16 鏃ヤ縿缃楁柉鑲″競鐨勪氦鏄撴寚鏁颁笅璺屼簡 11.47%锛? 鏈?17 鏃ワ紝淇勮偂甯備笅璺屽姞鍓э紝涓嬭穼鎸囨暟鍦?9%浠ヤ笂銆?008骞?10 鏈堬紪鏃ワ紝褰撳叏鐞冧富瑕佽偂甯傞伃閬?ldquo;榛戣壊鏄熸湡涓€”鏃讹紝淇勭綏鏂氦鏄撶郴缁燂紙RTS锛夋寚鏁颁篃涓嬭穼 19.1锛咃紝璺岃嚦 866.39 鐐癸紝杩欐槸璇ユ寚鏁帮紦骞存潵棣栨鏀朵簬 900 鐐瑰績鐞嗗叧鍙d箣涓嬨€俁TS 鎸囨暟鍦?2008 骞达紩鏈堟浘绐佺牬 2 400 鐐归珮浣嶏紝鑰屾鏃跺凡涓嬭穼 60锛呬互涓娿€?/div>
 
绗簩绔?淇勭綏鏂簲瀵圭粡娴庡嵄鏈哄绛?................ 17-28 
    绗竴鑺?瀹炴柦鍙嶅嵄鏈烘帾鏂?............... 17-22 
    绗簩鑺?璋冩暣缁忔祹缁?............... 22-25 
    绗笁鑺?鍔犲己鍥介檯缁忔祹鍚堜綔................25-27 
    鏈珷灏忕粨................ 27-28 
绗笁绔?淇勭綏鏂粡娴庡墠鏅垎鏋?................28-36 
    绗竴鑺?2010-2011 骞翠縿缃楁柉缁忔祹鐘跺喌................ 28-30 
    绗簩鑺?淇勭綏鏂粡娴庢湭鏉ュ彂灞曡秼鍔?............... 30-31 
    绗笁鑺?淇勭綏鏂蛋鍑哄嵄鏈虹殑鏈夊埄鍥犵礌................ 31-33 
    绗洓鑺?淇勭綏鏂疄鐜扮粡娴庡鑻忕殑缇佺粖 ................33-35 
鏈珷灏忕粨................ 35-36
 
缁撹
 
2008 骞翠互鏉ワ紝淇勭綏鏂粡娴庡湪鍥介檯閲戣瀺椋庢毚涓嵄鏈洪噸閲嶏紝2009 骞翠縿缃楁柉缁忔祹鍦ㄥ叏鐞冪粡娴庢帓鍚嶄腑浣嶅眳 63锛屾槸“閲戠爾鍥涘浗”鍜?ldquo;鍏浗闆嗗洟”涓〃鐜版渶宸殑缁忔祹浣擄紝鍏堕噾铻嶄綋绯汇€佸疄浣撶粡娴庝互鍙婂嚭鍙c€佹姇璧勫拰娑堣垂姘村钩閮戒竴搴︽矇鍏ヨ胺搴曪紝2010 骞淬€?011骞村湪淇勬斂搴滃弽鍗辨満鎺柦閫愭笎瑙佹晥鍜屼笘鐣岀粡娴庡舰鍔挎棩瓒嬪ソ杞殑鎯呭喌涓嬩縿缃楁柉缁忔祹铏界劧閫愭笎璧板嚭璋峰簳锛屼絾闅忎箣鑰屾潵鐨勯€氳揣鑶ㄨ儉鍜岀粡娴庡嵄鏈哄甫鏉ョ殑璐熼潰褰卞搷浠婂悗灏嗗湪寰堥暱涓€娈垫椂闂撮噷鍒剁害淇勭粡娴庣殑鍙戝睍銆備縿缃楁柉缁忔祹缁忚繃鑹伴毦鐨勮浆杞ㄦ椂鏈燂紝宸茬粡铻嶅叆涓栫晫缁忔祹涓€浣撳寲涔嬩腑锛岀敱浜庤嚜韬粡娴庣粨鏋勭壒鐐逛娇鍏跺澶栭儴甯傚満楂樺害渚濊禆锛屼縿閲戣瀺浣撶郴鐨勪笉瀹屽杽銆侀噾铻嶅競鍦虹殑楂樺害鑷敱鍖栫瓑鑷韩缁忔祹妯″紡鐗圭偣瀵艰嚧淇勭綏鏂湪姝ゆ鍗辨満鏉ヤ复鍚庤瘉鍒稿競鍦哄穿婧冿紝浼佷笟璧勯噾鍛ㄨ浆鍥伴毦锛屽疄浣撶粡娴庢灞ョ淮鑹帮紝浜烘皯鐢熸椿璐ㄩ噺涓嬮檷锛屼縿缃楁柉缁忔祹璧板叆璋峰簳銆?/div>
淇勭綏鏂綔涓轰竴涓笘鐣岀灘鐩殑澶у浗锛屽湪鍥介檯缁忔祹鍗辨満鐨勬氮娼笅鍙楀埌鍐插嚮鏄笉鍙伩鍏嶇殑锛屼絾鏄垜浠渶瑕佹槑纭嵄鏈哄奖鍝嶅埌淇勭綏鏂粡娴庣殑绋嬪害锛屽鍙戠殑鏍规簮锛屾帹鍔ㄧ殑鍥犵礌锛岃繕瑕佷簡瑙d縿鏀垮簻瀵规鏁戝姪鐨勬帾鏂斤紝骞跺垎鏋愬畠瀵逛縿缃楁柉鏈潵缁忔祹鐨勫奖鍝嶏紝璁╂垜浠敱姝ゅ緱鍒板惎绀猴紝浠ュ瑙傚湴闈㈠鑷繁锛岄潰瀵逛粬浜猴紝闈㈠鏈潵銆傝繖鏄湪鍚庡嵄鏈烘椂浠f垜浠爺绌朵縿缃楁柉缁忔祹鍗辨満鐨勬剰涔夋墍鍦ㄣ€備縿缃楁柉杩欎釜涓栫晫閲嶉噺绾х殑澶у浗鍦ㄩ伃鍙楅噾铻嶅嵄鏈虹殑涓ラ噸鎵撳嚮鍚庡叾缁忔祹鐩墠姝e浜庡崄瀛楄矾鍙o紝淇勭綏鏂殑缁忔祹澶嶈嫃杩樺瓨鍦ㄥ緢澶氫笉纭畾鍥犵礌锛屼粠杈冮暱鏃舵湡鏉ョ湅锛屼縿璋冩暣缁忔祹缁撴瀯锛屽疄鐜扮粡娴庡垱鏂扮瓑鐩爣鍧囦笉鑳藉湪鐭椂闂村唴瀹炵幇锛屼縿缃楁柉鏀垮簻闇€瑕侀潰瀵圭幇瀹烇紝椤哄簲瀹㈣瑙勫緥锛屽厖鍒嗗埄鐢ㄧ幇鏈夌殑鏈夊埄浼樺娍锛屾壘鍑虹粡娴庢垬鐣ヤ腑鏃㈣兘娌绘爣鍙堣兘娌绘湰鐨勮壇鑽紝灏嗕縿缃楁柉缁忔祹蹇€熷甫鍑哄嵄鏈猴紝璧板悜绻佽崳銆?/div>
 
鍙傝€冩枃鐚?/div>
[1]闄嗗崡娉? 閲戣瀺鍗辨満瀵逛縿缃楁柉缁忔祹鐨勫啿鍑诲湪鍔犲墽[J]. 淇勭綏鏂腑浜氫笢娆х爺绌? 2009,(2).
[2]椹敋浜? 涓栫晫閲戣瀺鍗辨満瀵逛縿缃楁柉褰卞搷鐨勬斂娌荤粡娴庡瑙i噴[J]. 杩滀笢缁忚锤瀵兼姤,2008, (11).
[3]绫冲啗. 2008 骞翠縿缃楁柉缁忔祹澧為暱鐨勫舰鍔垮垎鏋愬強 2009 骞撮娴媅J]. 淇勭綏鏂腑浜氫笢娆у競鍦? 2009, (2).
[4]椹敋浜? 涓栫晫閲戣瀺鍗辨満瀵逛縿缃楁柉杩滀笢鐨勫奖鍝峓J].淇勭綏鏂腑浜氫笢娆х爺绌? 2009, (2).
[5]濮滄尟鍐? 閲戣瀺鍗辨満鑳屾櫙涓嬩縿杩滀笢鍦板尯缁忔祹绀句細褰㈠娍鍒嗘瀽[J]. 淇勭綏鏂腑浜氫笢娆у競鍦? 2009, (11).
[6]鍒樺啗姊? 搴斿閲戣瀺鍗辨満:浠庢瘮杈冧腑鐪嬩箰灞卞競缁忔祹鐨勮浆鍨嬩笌鍙戝睍[J]. 涓滃寳浜氳鍧?2010, (5).
[7]闄嗗崡娉? 淇勭綏鏂粡娴庡ぇ婊戝潯鐨勪竴骞碵J]. 淇勭綏鏂腑浜氫笢娆у競鍦? 2010, (2).
[8]鏉庡缓姘? 淇勭綏鏂粡娴庡瓨鍦ㄧ殑闂鍙?010骞寸粡娴庢斂绛栬蛋鍚慬J]. 淇勭綏鏂腑浜氫笢娆у競鍦猴紝2010, (2).
[9]鏉庢鼎鏄? 鍥介檯閲戣瀺鍗辨満瀵逛縿缃楁柉浜虹墿璐ㄧ敓娲荤殑褰卞搷[J]. 淇勭綏鏂腑浜氫笢娆у競鍦?2009, (9).
[10]鏋楁不鍗庛€佽档灏忓. 淇勭綏鏂粡娴庡畨鍏ㄧ姸鍐电殑鍔ㄦ€佸垎鏋?mdash;—浠ヤ袱娆′笘鐣岄噾铻嶅嵄鏈虹殑褰卞搷涓轰緥[J]. 涓滃寳浜氳鍧? 2010, (1).
 

涓撲笟閲戣瀺姣曚笟璁烘枃鑼冩枃绮鹃€夌瘒鍥?/h3>
 
缁?璁?/div>
 
0.1 鐮旂┒鑳屾櫙鍙婃剰涔?/div>
鏀归潻寮€鏀句负涓浗纭曞+璁烘枃鑼冩枃缁忔祹娉ㄥ叆浜嗘椿鍔涳紝涓浗鐨勭粡娴庡彂灞曚篃鍙栧緱浜嗗法澶ф垚灏便€備絾鍥芥皯缁忔祹鏁翠綋鍦ㄥ揩閫熸攢鍗囩殑鍚屾椂锛屽啘鏉戠粡娴庣殑澧為暱閫熷害鍗村紑濮嬫斁缂擄紝浠庤€屽鑷村煄涔″樊璺濅笉鏂墿澶с€傝€屽啘涓氭槸鎴戝浗鐨勭珛鍥戒箣鏈紝鍐滀笟銆佸啘鏉戝拰鍐滄皯锛堢畝绉?ldquo;涓夊啘”闂锛変竴鐩撮兘鏄斂搴滄墍鍏虫敞鐨勭劍鐐广€傚煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傛槸鍙戝睍涓浗瀹跺湪鐢变紶缁熷啘涓氱粡娴庤繃娓″埌鐜颁唬宸ヤ笟缁忔祹鐨勫巻鍙茶繘绋嬩腑閫愭笎浜х敓銆佹墿澶у苟鏈€缁堟秷澶辩殑鐜拌薄銆傚畠鏄换浣曞浗瀹跺湪鍙戝睍缁忔祹鐨勮繃绋嬩腑閮戒笉鍙€捐秺鐨勭幇璞★紝鏇存槸褰撲唬鍙戝睍涓浗瀹堕潰涓寸殑鏅亶闂锛屽畠鐨勫瓨鍦ㄦ湁鍏跺巻鍙插繀鐒舵€у拰鍚堢悊鎬с€傝€屾垜鍥藉煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傛槸缁忔祹鍙戝睍鐨勭壒娈婇樁娈靛拰鍥芥儏鎵€鍐冲畾鐨勶紝涓昏琛ㄧ幇涓猴細鍩庡競缁忔祹浠ョ幇浠e寲澶у伐涓氱敓浜т负涓伙紝鑰屽啘鏉戠粡娴庝互鍏稿瀷鐨勫皬鍐滅粡娴庝负涓伙紱杩樿〃鐜板湪鍔冲姩灏变笟涓庡師濮嬫墜宸ュ苟瀛橈紱闂鐨勫啘鏉戜笌鏃ョ泭鑶ㄨ儉鐨勫煄甯傜殑骞跺瓨锛涘湴鍖虹粡娴庡彂灞曠殑涓嶅钩琛$瓑銆傜編鍥界粡娴庡瀹舵牸鍒╁拰鐖卞痉鍗?bull;鑲?Edward S锛嶴haw)璁や负缁忔祹鍙戝睍鐨勫墠鎻愬拰鍩虹鏄噾铻嶅彂灞曪紝鑰岀粡娴庡彂灞曠殑鍔ㄥ姏鍜屾墜娈垫槸閲戣瀺鐨勫彂灞?銆傞噾铻嶅彂灞曚笌缁忔祹鍙戝睍涔嬮棿瀛樺湪鐫€杈ㄨ瘉鍏崇郴锛屽郊姝や箣闂寸浉浜掑埗绾︺€佺浉浜掍績杩涚殑銆傜敱浜庢垜鍥藉競鍦烘満鍒剁殑涓嶅仴鍏紝璧勯噾寰堥毦閫氳繃缁熶竴鐨勯噾铻嶅競鍦烘潵娴侀€氾紝鏈夐檺鐨勯噾铻嶆満鏋勪笉鑳藉厖鍒嗗彂鎸?ldquo;瀵肩”浣滅敤锛岀ぞ浼氳祫婧愰毦浠ュ疄鐜板悎鐞嗛厤缃紝鐢熶骇銆佹祦閫氥€佹秷璐瑰拰鍒嗛厤闅句互瀹炵幇鑹€у惊鐜紱浠ュ強瀵圭粡娴庡彂灞曠殑娓存湜涓嶉【鏈浗瀹為檯鎯呭喌鍔犱互鏁堜豢锛岃瘯鍥惧埄鐢ㄦ斂搴滅殑寮哄埗鍔涢噺瀵瑰埄鐜囧疄琛屼弗鏍奸檺鍒讹紝鍏剁粨鏋滈潪浣嗘病鏈夊埡婵€鎶曡祫锛屽弽鑰屾姂鍒朵簡鎶曡祫锛屽埗绾︿簡缁忔祹鐨勫闀匡紝褰㈡垚浜?ldquo;閲戣瀺鎶戝埗”鐨勫眬闈€傞噾铻嶅彂灞曟粸鍚庡張闃荤浜嗙粡娴庣殑鍙戝睍锛屼粠鑰岄€犳垚浜嗛噾铻嶄笌缁忔祹鍙戝睍涔嬮棿澶勪簬鐩镐簰鎺h倶锛屽舰鎴愪簡鍙岃惤鍚庣殑鎭舵€у惊鐜姸鎬併€傚彲瑙侊紝涓€鍥界殑閲戣瀺鍙戝睍褰卞搷鍏剁粡娴庡彂灞曟按骞筹紝閲戣瀺鎶戝埗鐜拌薄鐨勮В闄や細鎻愰珮璧勬簮鐨勫埄鐢ㄦ晥鐜囷紝淇冭繘鏁翠釜鍥芥皯缁忔祹鐨勫闀裤€?/div>
鎴戝浗閲戣瀺绠$悊浣撳埗瀛樺湪鍖哄煙鎬у樊寮傦紝鍗宠惤鍚庣殑鍐滄潙閲戣瀺绠$悊浣撳埗涓庡彂杈剧殑鍩庡競閲戣瀺绠$悊浣撳埗骞跺瓨锛屽鑷存垜鍥藉煄涔¢噾铻嶅彂灞曞瓨鍦ㄦ槑鏄剧殑宸紓鎬х壒寰侊紝涓昏琛ㄧ幇鍦ㄥ煄涔′箣闂寸殑閲戣瀺鏈烘瀯鐨勫瓨璐蜂綑棰濄€侀噾铻嶇浉鍏崇巼銆侀噾铻嶆満鏋勭殑鐜伴噾鏀跺叆鍜岄噾铻嶅競鍦轰綋绯荤瓑澶氫釜鏂归潰锛岃繖绉嶉噾铻嶅彂灞曞樊寮傜殑瀛樺湪蹇呯劧鏄煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傚瓨鍦ㄧ殑涓€涓噸瑕佸師鍥犮€傝窘瀹佺渷鏄竴涓啘涓氬拰浜哄彛澶х渷锛屽湪鍏跺伐涓氬寲銆佸煄甯傚寲鍜岀幇浠e寲杩涚▼涓舰鎴愪簡鐙壒鐨勫煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傘€傚張鐢变簬鍏跺啘鏉戝眳姘戞暟閲忓湪浜哄彛鎬婚噺涓崰缁濆姣旈噸锛屾墍浠ュ煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傚凡鎴愪负闃荤杈藉畞鐪佺粡娴庡彂灞曠殑宸ㄥぇ闅滅锛屽苟閫犳垚浜嗚传瀵屽樊璺濇媺澶с€佸煄涔″彂灞曚笉鍗忚皟銆佸煄涔℃枃鍖栫礌璐ㄥ樊璺濇墿澶с€佸啘涓氬姵鍔ㄧ敓浜х巼浣庝笅銆佸啘姘戞敹鍏ヤ綆涓嬬瓑鍏崇郴鍒板浗姘戠粡娴庡彂灞曞叏灞€鐨勬灑绾芥€ч棶棰樸€傝繖浜涢棶棰樹弗閲嶉樆纰嶄簡鍩庝埂缁忔祹鍗忚皟鍙戝睍锛岄樆纰嶄簡鐜颁唬鍖栫殑杩涚▼鍜屽皬搴风ぞ浼氱殑鍏ㄩ潰寤鸿銆傜敱姝ゅ彲瑙侊紝閫愭缂╁皬鍩庝埂缁忔祹澧為暱宸紓锛屽疄鐜板煄涔″崗璋冨彂灞曪紝鏃犺鏄粠寰锛堝啘姘戯級瑙掑害锛岃繕鏄粠瀹忚锛堝叏绀句細锛夊眰娆℃潵璇撮兘鏄繀瑕佺殑銆傛墍浠ユ湰鏂囦互杈藉畞鐪佷负渚嬶紝鐮旂┒鍦ㄧ粡娴庡闀胯繃绋嬩腑锛屽煄涔¢噾铻嶄笟濡備綍鍗忚皟鍙戝睍锛屾墠鑳芥洿鏈夋晥鍦颁績杩涘煄涔$粡娴庡叡鍚屽闀裤€?/div>
 
0.1.2 鐮旂┒鎰忎箟
鐞嗚灞傛锛氭湰鏂囧湪鏌ラ槄澶ч噺鏂囩尞鐨勫熀纭€涓婏紝鍙戠幇澶ч儴鍒嗘枃鐚兘鏄粠鍏ㄥ浗鑼冨洿鍐呰繘琛屼簩鑰呬箣闂寸殑鐮旂┒锛屽緢灏戜粠鍦板尯鑼冨洿鍐呰繘琛屽疄璇佺爺绌躲€傜敱浜庢垜鍥藉箙鍛樿窘闃旓紝鍦板尯闂寸殑瀹為檯鎯呭喌鍚勪笉鐩稿悓锛屾墍浠ュ鑷村悇鍦板尯鐨勫煄涔¢噾铻嶅彂灞曞樊寮傚鍩庝埂缁忔祹澧為暱鐨勫奖鍝嶄篃涓嶅敖鐩稿悓銆傛墍浠ユ湰鏂囧湪鍓嶄汉鐮旂┒鐨勫熀纭€涓婏紝缁撳悎杈藉畞鐪佺殑瀹為檯鎯呭喌锛屽缓绔嬬敓浜у嚱鏁版ā鍨嬶紝瀹炶瘉鐮旂┒杈藉畞鍩庝埂閲戣瀺鍙戝睍涓嶅钩琛″鍩庝埂缁忔祹澧為暱宸紓鐨勫奖鍝嶃€傚氨瀹為檯鎰忎箟鑰岃█锛屽彧鏈夊畬鍠勫啘鏉戦噾铻嶇鐞嗕綋鍒讹紝鍔犲揩鍐滄潙閲戣瀺鍙戝睍锛屾墠鑳界缉灏忓煄涔¢噾铻嶅彂灞曞樊寮傦紝杩涜€岀缉灏忓煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傦紝瀹炵幇绀句細鐨勫崗璋冨彂灞曘€傚湪鍗佸叚灞婁笁涓叏浼氥€婂喅瀹氥€嬩腑锛岀涓€娆℃槑纭彁鍑鸿寤虹珛鏈夊埄浜庨€愭鏀瑰彉鍩庝埂缁忔祹澧為暱宸紓鐨勪綋鍒讹紝骞舵彁鍑轰簡“浜斾釜缁熺”鍙戝睍鐨勬垬鐣ユ€濇兂锛屽嵆锛氱粺绛瑰煄涔″彂灞曘€佺粺绛瑰尯鍩熷彂灞曘€佺粺绛圭粡娴庣ぞ浼氬彂灞曘€佺粺绛逛汉涓庤嚜鐒跺拰璋愬彂灞曘€佺粺绛瑰浗鍐呭彂灞曞拰瀵瑰寮€鏀俱€?ldquo;浜斾釜缁熺”涓鍏堣缁熺鍩庝埂鍙戝睍锛屽彲瑙侊紝鏀瑰彉鍩庝埂缁忔祹澧為暱宸紓锛屽崗璋冨煄涔″彂灞曟槸闈炲父閲嶈鐨勶紝鍥犱负杩欎笉浠呭叧绯诲埌鍐滄皯鏀跺叆鐨勬彁楂樺拰鐢熸椿姘村钩鐨勬敼鍠勶紝鑰屼笖瀵逛簬浜虹殑鍏ㄩ潰鍙戝睍鍜岀ぞ浼氬叏闈㈣繘姝ョ殑瀹炵幇鍏锋湁娣辫繙鐨勫巻鍙叉剰涔夈€傛墍浠ユ湰鏂囧湪鍊熼壌鍥藉唴澶栫殑缁忛獙鍜岀悊璁虹殑鍩虹涓婏紝浠ヨ窘瀹佸煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傚拰鍩庝埂閲戣瀺鍙戝睍宸紓涓哄璞★紝杩涜鐞嗚鍒嗘瀽鍜屽疄璇佸垎鏋愶紝骞跺瀹炶瘉缁撴灉杩涜鐞嗚瑙i噴锛屾渶鍚庢彁鍑哄彲琛屾€ф剰瑙侊紝浠ュ潎琛″煄涔¢噾铻嶅彂灞曘€佷績杩涘煄涔$粡娴庡崗璋冦€佸缓绔嬪拰璋愮殑鍩庝埂閲戣瀺鍏崇郴銆?/div>
 
1 鏂囩尞缁艰堪
 
1.1 鍥藉鏂囩尞缁艰堪
瀵归噾铻嶅彂灞曚笌缁忔祹澧為暱鍏崇郴鐨勫疄璇佺爺绌跺彲浠ヨ拷婧埌闆疯挋寰?bull;鎴堝痉鍙插瘑鏂?Goldsmith锛?969)锛屼粬杩愮敤 35 涓浗瀹?1860~1969 骞撮棿鐨勬湁鍏虫暟鎹紝瀵归噾铻嶅彂灞曚笌缁忔祹澧為暱杩涜浜嗗疄璇佺爺绌讹紝寰楀嚭閲戣瀺鍙戝睍涓庣粡娴庡闀垮憟骞宠鍙戝睍鍏崇郴鐨勭粨璁猴紝鍚屾椂鎻愬嚭閲戣瀺缁撴瀯鐞嗚锛屼粬璁や负鍚勫浗閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鍜岀粡娴庣哗鏁堝樊寮傜殑鍏抽敭鍥犵礌鏄噾铻嶇殑瑙勬ā涓庣粨鏋勭殑宸紓锛屽紑鍒涗簡瀹炶瘉鐮旂┒閲戣瀺鍙戝睍涓庣粡娴庡闀跨殑鍏堟渤锛涢害閲戝啘(McKinnon锛?973)鍜岃倴锛圫haw锛?973锛夋渶鏃╅槓杩颁簡閲戣瀺鍙戝睍瀵圭粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傜殑褰卞搷锛屽苟鎻愬嚭浜嗛拡瀵瑰彂灞曚腑鍥藉鐨勮憲鍚嶇殑“閲戣瀺鎶戝埗”鐞嗚锛屼粬璁や负鍙戝睍涓浗瀹跺瓨鍦?ldquo;閲戣瀺鎶戝埗”锛岃€岄噾铻嶆姂鍒朵弗閲嶉樆纰嶄簡缁忔祹澧為暱锛屽苟寮鸿皟浜嗕环鏍硷紙鍒╃巼锛夊彉閲忓鐞嗚В閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鍜岀粡娴庣哗鏁堢殑閲嶈鎬э紱King and Levine 杩愮敤鍏ㄧ悆鍥藉鐨勬暟鎹紝浠庡疄璇佺殑瑙掑害瀵归噾铻嶅彂灞曞拰缁忔祹澧為暱涔嬮棿鐨勫叧绯昏繘琛岀爺绌讹紝鐫€閲嶅垎鏋愬悇绉嶉噾铻嶄綋绯诲缁忔祹鍙戝睍鎻愪緵鐨勬湇鍔″拰鍔熻兘锛岀粨鏋滃緱鍑轰簩鑰呬箣闂村瓨鍦ㄦ鐩稿叧骞惰涓哄湪涓嶅悓鍙戝睍鏃舵湡锛岄噾铻嶅彂灞曞缁忔祹鍙戝睍鐨勯€熷害涓庣粨鏋勫叿鏈夊喅瀹氭€х殑褰卞搷銆侾agano(1993)銆丮axwell(1994)銆丩evine(1997)銆丩ewis(1995)锛屾彁鍑轰簡鍐呯敓閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鐞嗚锛屼篃灏辨槸鎶婂唴鐢熷闀裤€佸唴鐢熼噾铻嶄腑浠嬩綋鍙婂唴鐢熼噾铻嶅競鍦虹瓑骞跺叆鍒伴噾铻嶅彂灞曟ā鍨嬩箣涓紝瀵归噾铻嶄腑浠嬩綋鍜岄噾铻嶅競鍦虹殑褰㈡垚浠ュ強閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鍜岀粡娴庡闀跨殑鐩镐簰鍏崇郴鍋氫簡閫昏緫涓ュ瘑鐨勬暟瀛︽ā鍨嬭В閲婏紝骞惰繘琛屼簡瀹炶瘉妫€楠岋紱Romer(1986)锛孡ucas(1988)锛孯ebeio(1991)绛夐€氳繃鏋勫缓缁忔祹澧為暱妯″瀷锛岃鏄庝簡閲戣瀺鍙戝睍閫氳繃鏀瑰彉鍌ㄨ搫鐜囧拰鍌ㄨ搫鍐嶅垎閰嶄細褰卞搷璧勬湰绉疮杩涜€屽奖鍝嶇粡娴庣殑绋冲畾澧為暱銆傞櫎姝や箣澶栵紝杩樻湁涓€浜涘鑰呭埄鐢ㄤ笉鍚岀殑璁¢噺鏂规硶鍜屼笉鍚屾牱鏈暟鎹閲戣瀺鍙戝睍涓庣粡娴庡彂灞曚箣闂寸殑鍏崇郴杩涜浜嗗疄璇佸垎鏋愶紝濡侼e-usser 鍜?Kugler(1998) 鍜?Rousseau 鍜?Wachtel(1998) 銆?Beck.Levine 鍜孡oaya(2000) 銆丩e-vine(1999)鍒嗗埆鍒╃敤鏃堕棿搴忓垪鏁版嵁锛岄潰鏉挎暟鎹拰宸ュ叿鍙橀噺娉曪紝鐮旂┒浜嗛噾铻嶅彂灞曚笌缁忔祹澧為暱涔嬮棿鐨勫叧绯汇€?/div>
 
3 杈藉畞鍩庝埂閲戣瀺鍙戝睍涓庣粡娴庡闀?.............. 36-49 
    3.1 妯″瀷璁惧畾............. 36-37 
    3.2 鎸囨爣閫夊彇鍜屾暟鎹潵婧?............ 37-39 
        3.2.1 鎸囨爣閫夊彇 .............37-39 
        3.2.2 鏁版嵁鏉ユ簮鍙婅鏄?............ 39 
    3.3 杈藉畞鍩庝埂閲戣瀺鍙戝睍宸紓............. 39-49 
        3.3.1 鍗曚綅鏍规楠?.............39-40 
        3.3.2 鍗忔暣妫€楠?............ 40-41 
        3.3.3 璇樊淇妯″瀷锛圗CM锛夋楠?............ 41-44 
        3.3.4 Granger 鍥犳灉妫€楠?.............44-46 
        3.3.5 鑴夊啿鍝嶅簲妯″瀷............. 46-49 
4 鍐滄潙閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鐨勫垱鏂板埗搴﹀強鏀跨瓥鎬у缓璁?............ 49-53 
    4.1 鐮旂┒缁撹 .............49-50 
4.2 鍒涙柊鍒跺害鍙婃斂绛栨€у缓璁?............ 50-53
 
缁撹
 
鏈枃鍦ㄥ浗鍐呭鍏充簬閲戣瀺鍙戝睍涓庣粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傜爺绌舵垚鏋滅殑鍩虹涓婏紝浠ヨ窘瀹佺渷涓虹爺绌跺璞★紝鏀堕泦 1985-2008 骞寸殑鐩稿叧鏁版嵁锛岃繍鐢ㄦ弿杩版€х粺璁″垎鏋愪笌瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽鐩哥粨鍚堢殑鏂规硶鍒嗘瀽鐮旂┒浜嗚窘瀹佸煄涔¢噾铻嶇鐞嗕綋鍒跺樊寮備笅鐨勯噾铻嶅彂灞曞樊寮備笌鍩庝埂缁忔祹澧為暱宸紓涔嬮棿鐨勫叧绯伙細棣栧厛杩愮敤鎻忚堪鎬х粺璁℃柟娉曞垎鍒杈藉畞鍩庝埂缁忔祹澧為暱宸紓鍜屽煄涔¢噾铻嶅彂灞曠殑鎬讳綋鐘跺喌杩涜鐩稿叧鍒嗘瀽锛屽苟鍦ㄦ鍩虹涓婅繍鐢ㄦ牸鍏版澃鍥犳灉鍏崇郴妫€楠屽杈藉畞鍩庝埂閲戣瀺鍙戝睍宸紓瀵圭粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傜殑褰卞搷杩涜浜嗘楠岋紝鏈€鍚庡湪鏌竷-閬撴牸鎷夋柉鐢熶骇鍑芥暟妯″瀷鐨勫熀纭€涓婂鍏惰繘琛屽疄璇佸垎鏋愩€傛湰鏂囦富瑕佸緱鍑轰互涓嬬爺绌剁粨璁猴細
锛?锛夎窘瀹佸煄涔$粡娴庡湪鍙戝睍杩囩▼涓舰鎴愪簡鏄庢樉鐨勫樊寮傛€э紝琛ㄧ幇鍦ㄥ煄涔″眳姘戞敹鍏ャ€佹秷璐广€佺粡娴庡闀跨瓑澶氫釜鏂归潰銆傚煄涔″眳姘戞敹鍏ュ樊璺濆憟鐜版墿澶х殑瓒嬪娍銆傚湪 20 涓栫邯 90 骞翠唬涓悗鏈熻櫧鐭殏鍑虹幇寰急鐨勪笅闄嶏紝浣嗚繘鍏?21 涓栫邯鍚庯紝鍩庝埂灞呮皯浜哄潎鏀跺叆宸紓鐨勫€嶆暟澧炲姞鍒?4 鍊嶅锛屽嵆鍐滄潙灞呮皯浜哄潎鏀跺叆鍙崰鍩庡競灞呮皯浜哄潎鏀跺叆鐨?1/4銆傝繖琛ㄦ槑锛岃窘瀹佸煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮備粠灞呮皯浜哄潎鏀跺叆鐨勮搴︾湅鏄崄鍒嗘槑鏄剧殑锛屽苟鏈夐€愭寮哄寲鐨勮秼鍔裤€傚煄涔″眳姘戠殑娑堣垂缁撴瀯涓婁篃鍛堢幇鐫€鏄庢樉鐨勭粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傘€?985 骞翠互鏉ワ紝鎭╂牸灏旂郴鏁颁竴鐩村憟鎵╁ぇ鐨勮秼鍔匡紝鍦?1995 骞磋揪鍒颁簡鏈€澶у€笺€備絾鏄湪鏈€杩戝嚑骞翠腑锛岃繖绉嶆秷璐圭粨鏋勫樊璺濇湁鏄庢樉鐨勭缉灏忚秼鍔裤€傝繖琛ㄦ槑锛岃窘瀹佸煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮備粠灞呮皯娑堣垂缁撴瀯鐨勮搴︾湅浠嶅崄鍒嗘樉钁楋紝浣嗗嚭鐜颁簡缂撳拰鐨勮抗璞°€傚煄涔$粡娴庡闀挎柟闈笂鐪嬶紝杈藉畞鍩庝埂 GDP 涔嬮棿鐨勫樊璺濅竴鐩村湪娉㈠姩涓笉鏂墿澶э紝灏ゅ叾鍦?2008 骞磋繖绉嶅樊璺濊揪鍒颁簡 4 鍊嶄箣澶氥€傜敱姝ゅ彲瑙侊紝杈藉畞缁忔祹澧為暱宸紓浠庡煄涔$粡娴庡闀跨殑瑙掑害鐪嬪瓨鍦ㄧ潃鏄庢樉鐨勫己鍖栬秼鍔裤€?/div>
锛?锛夎窘瀹佸煄涔¢噾铻嶅彂灞曡繃绋嬩腑鍛堢幇鏄庢樉鐨勪笉骞宠 鐜拌薄锛岃〃鐜板湪鍩庝埂瀛樿捶娆惧拰閲戣瀺鐩稿叧鐜囩瓑鏂归潰銆備粠瀛樻鏂归潰鏉ョ湅锛屾棤璁哄煄闀囪繕鏄啘鏉戝瓨娆捐妯¢兘鍛堢幇涓婂崌鐨勮秼鍔匡紝浣嗘槸鍩庨晣瀛樻瑙勬ā涓婂崌鐨勯€熷害瑕佽繙杩滃ぇ浜庡啘鏉戝瓨娆捐妯$殑涓婂崌閫熷害锛屽煄涔′箣闂村瓨娆惧樊璺濊秺鏉ヨ秺澶с€備粠 1985 骞村煄涔″瓨娆惧樊璺濅笉鍒?4 鍊嶏紝涓€鐩存墿澶у埌 2008 骞村煄涔″瓨娆惧樊璺濈殑12 鍊嶄箣澶氥€備粠璐锋鏂归潰涓婄湅锛?985 骞翠互鏉ワ紝鍩庝埂璐锋宸窛鍛堢幇鏈夋尝鍔ㄧ殑涓婂崌瓒嬪娍銆備粠閲戣瀺鐩稿叧鐜囨柟闈㈡潵鐪嬶紝鍩庨晣鍜屽啘鏉戠殑閲戣瀺鐩稿叧鐜囧湪 1985 骞磋嚦 2008 骞翠箣闂撮兘澶勫湪娉㈠姩骞朵笂鍗囩殑瓒嬪娍涓紝浣嗗煄涔′箣闂村湪閲戣瀺鍙戝睍姘村钩涓婂瓨鍦ㄦ槑鏄剧殑宸紓锛屼粠FIR 鍙樺寲瓒嬪娍鍥句笂鐪嬶紝鍙互娓呮鐨勭湅鍒板憟“鍓垁宸?rdquo;褰㈢姸銆傜患涓婃墍杩帮紝杈藉畞鍩庝埂閲戣瀺绠$悊浣撳埗宸紓涓嬬殑閲戣瀺鍙戝睍瀛樺湪鐫€鏄庢樉鐨勫彂灞曚笉骞宠 鐜拌薄銆?/div>
锛?锛夎窘瀹佸煄涔¢噾铻嶅彂灞曞樊寮傚彉鍖栨槸鍩庝埂缁忔祹澧為暱宸紓鍙樺寲鐨勬牸鍏版澃鍘熷洜锛屽苟涓旈噾铻嶅彂灞曞缁忔祹澧為暱宸紓鐨勫奖鍝嶆湁鏄捐憲鐨勬鏁堝簲銆傛湰鏂囬噰鐢ㄨ窘瀹佺渷 1985-2008 骞撮棿鐨勭粡娴庢暟鎹笌鏍煎叞鏉帮紙Granger锛夊洜鏋滃叧绯绘楠屽杈藉畞鍩庝埂閲戣瀺鍙戝睍涓庡煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傜殑鍏崇郴杩涜瀹炶瘉妫€楠岋紝缁撴灉琛ㄦ槑杈藉畞鍩庝埂閲戣瀺鍙戝睍宸紓涓庡煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傚瓨鍦ㄤ竴绉嶉暱鏈熺殑鍧囪 鍏崇郴锛屽苟涓斾粠Granger 鍥犳灉鍏崇郴涓婄湅锛屽煄涔¢噾铻嶅彂灞曞樊寮傚彉鍖栨槸鍩庝埂缁忔祹澧為暱宸紓鍙樺寲鐨勬牸鍏版澃鍘熷洜锛屼絾鏄煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傚彉鍖栧苟涓嶆槸鍩庝埂閲戣瀺鍙戝睍宸紓鍙樺寲鐨勬牸鍏版澃鍘熷洜锛涘煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傜殑鍙樺寲鏄煄涔¤祫浜ф姇璧勫樊寮傚彉鍖栫殑鏍煎叞鏉板師鍥狅紝鍩庝埂璧勪骇鎶曡祫宸紓鍙樺寲鍗翠笉鏄煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傜殑鍙樺寲鐨勬牸鍏版澃鍘熷洜銆傝繖琛ㄦ槑杈藉畞鍩庝埂閲戣瀺鍙戝睍宸紓瀵瑰煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傛湁涓€瀹氱殑褰卞搷锛屽煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傚鍩庝埂璧勪骇鎶曡祫涔熷瓨鍦ㄤ竴瀹氱殑褰卞搷銆備粠鑴夊啿鍙嶅簲鐨勭粨鏋滅湅锛屽煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傚湪鍩庝埂閲戣瀺鍙戝睍宸紓鐨勫啿鍑讳笅锛屽ぇ浣撲笂鍛堟樉钁楃殑姝f晥搴旓紱鍩庝埂璧勪骇鎶曡祫宸紓鍦ㄥ煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傜殑鍐插嚮涓嬪憟鐜版槑鏄剧殑璐熸晥搴旓紝鍗冲煄涔¢噾铻嶅彂灞曠殑宸紓瓒婂ぇ锛屽煄涔$粡娴庡闀垮樊寮傚氨瓒婃槑鏄撅紱鍩庝埂缁忔祹澧為暱宸紓瓒婃槑鏄撅紝鍩庝埂閲戣瀺璧勪骇宸紓涔熷氨瓒婂ぇ銆?/div>
 
鍙傝€冩枃鐚?/div>
[1]Adolfo Sachsida.A causality test between financial deepening and growth[J]锛學orking paper of Social Science Network Electronic Paper Collection.200l.
[2]Beck Thorsten锛孡vine Ross.Stock markets banks and growth:panel evidence.NBER Working Paper锛?002:9082.
[3] Norman loayza锛孯omain ranciere.Financia1 development financia1 fragility andgrowth.CESifoWorking paper锛?002锛?84(5).
[4]Feder 锛?G.On exports and economic growth.[J].Journal of DevelopmentEconomics.1983.12:59-73.
[5]Goldsmith锛孯.W.Financial structure and development [M].New Heaven锛孋T:YaleUniversity Press.1969.
[6]Greenwood锛孞.锛?amp;Jovanovic锛孊.Financial development.growth and the distributionof income[J].Joumal of Political Economy锛?990:98,1076-1107.
[7]Lewis 锛?T.and D.Sappington.(1997).”Information Management in IncentiveProblems.”Journal of Political Economy 105:796-821.
[8]Mckinnon锛孯onald L(1991)锛孴he Order of Economic Liberalization:FinancialControl in the Transision to a Market Economy 锛?Bal-timore:Johns HopkinsUniversity Press.
[9] T.Beck& R.Levine.Industry growth and capita1 allocation. Journal of FinanceEconomiCS锛?002锛?64):147-180.
[10]Van Wijnbergen锛孲,Bank Restructuring and Enterprise Reform.European BankWorking paper锛孨o29锛?998.
 

涓撲笟閲戣瀺姣曚笟璁烘枃鑼冩枃绮鹃€夌瘒浜?/h3>
 
绗?绔犵华璁?/div>
 
1.1鍥藉唴澶栫爺绌剁患杩?/div>
 
1.1.1鍥藉鍙戝睍
20涓栫邯90骞翠唬浠ュ悗锛屽浗澶栧ぇ閮ㄥ垎鍥藉閾惰寮€濮嬪姞寮轰簡椋庨櫓绠$悊寤鸿锛屾垚绔嬩簡鐩稿簲鐨勫垎鏋愭満鏋勫拰缁勭粐銆傞€氬父鏄缓绔嬮」鐩闄╄瘎浠峰垎鏋愬埗搴︺€傛敞閲嶄俊鎭敹闆嗭紝褰㈡垚瑙勮寖銆佷弗璋ㄣ€佺瀛︾殑鍒嗘瀽鎶ュ憡锛屼负鍐崇瓥鑰呮彁渚涢珮璐ㄩ噺鐨勫喅绛栦俊鎭€傚悓鏃跺缓绔嬭嚜宸辩殑鏁版嵁璧勬枡搴擄紝鍋氬埌鐭ュ郊鐭ュ繁銆傞噸瑙嗙爺绌剁粡娴庛€佹斂绛栬蛋鍚戙€傞殢鏃跺叧娉ㄥ畯瑙傜粡娴庤蛋鍔跨殑鍙樺姩鍜岃秼鍔匡紝骞堕娴嬫斂搴滅殑鏀跨瓥璧板悜锛屽強鏃惰皟鏁寸粡钀ユ柟鍚戝拰缁忚惀绛栫暐锛岄伩鍏嶅洜鏀跨瓥鍙樺寲鑰屽紩璧风殑鏀跨瓥鎬ч闄┿€?.2鍥藉唴鍙戝睍涓轰簡缁嗗寲骞舵彁楂樻搷浣滄€э紝閾剁洃浼氬湪銆婂晢涓氶摱琛屽競鍦洪闄╃鐞嗘寚寮曘€嬬殑鍩虹涓婏紝浜?005骞?0鏈堟寮忓叕甯冧簡銆婂競鍦洪闄╃洃绠$幇鍦烘鏌ユ墜鍐屻€嬶紝瀵瑰競鍦洪闄╃洃绠$殑鍚勪釜涓昏鏂归潰杩涜浜嗚缁嗙殑瑙勫畾銆備负浜嗗簲瀵规柊澧炲姞鐨勫競鍦洪闄╋紝鍔犲ぇ甯傚満妫€鏌ョ殑鍔涘害锛屾彁楂橀摱琛屽競鍦洪闄╂剰璇嗗拰甯傚満椋庨櫓绠$悊鐨勫姏搴︼紝閾剁洃浼氳繎骞存潵瀵逛笉鍚岀被鍨嬮摱琛岀殑甯傚満椋庨櫓宸辩粡杩涜浜嗕笉鍚岀▼搴︾殑妫€鏌ャ€?006骞?鏈堜腑鏃紝閾剁洃浼氬悜鍙栧緱琛嶇敓浜у搧浜ゆ槗璧勬牸鐨?7瀹朵腑澶栬祫閾惰鍗板彂浜嗗競鍦洪闄╂鏌ラ棶鍗峰拰琛ㄦ牸锛屽杩欎簺閾惰鐨勯闄╃鐞嗘斂绛栥€佺▼搴忓強鍏舵墽琛屾儏鍐靛拰鍚勭被琛嶇敓浜у搧鐨勪氦鏄撻噺杩涜鎽稿簳銆傚湪姝ゅ熀纭€涓婏紝鍑嗗鐢ㄥ嚑涓湀鏃堕棿瀵归儴鍒嗗ぇ鍨嬮摱琛屻€佽偂浠藉埗閾惰鍜屽璧勯摱琛屽競鍦洪闄╃鐞嗚繘琛岀幇鍦烘鏌ャ€?ldquo;浜嬮潪缁忚繃涓嶇煡闅?rdquo;銆傚浗澶栭噾铻嶆満鏋勫湪缁忓巻浜?0涓栫邯90骞翠唬浼楀椋庨櫓浜嬩欢鐨?ldquo;闃电棝”鍚庯紝鎻愰珮浜嗛闄╃鐞嗘剰璇嗭紝鍔犲己浜嗛闄╃鐞嗭紝椋庨櫓浜嬩欢闅忎箣閫愭笎鍑忓皯銆傛瘮杈?ldquo;涓埅娌?rdquo;浜嬩欢鍜屽反鏋楅摱琛屼簨浠讹紝鎴戜滑鍙互瀹规槗鍦板彂鐜帮紝10骞村墠宸存灄閾惰椋庨櫓绠$悊鐨勪富瑕佸紛鐥呭湪“涓埅娌?rdquo;浜嬩欢涓噸婕旓紝杩欏鎴戝浗閲戣瀺鏈烘瀯椋庨櫓绠$悊鍜岀洃绠′篃鎻愬嚭浜嗚绀恒€備笌淇$敤椋庨櫓鍜屾搷浣滈闄╃鐞嗙被浼硷紝甯傚満椋庨櫓绠$悊浣撶郴鐨勫仴鍏ㄥ拰瀹屽杽闇€瑕佷竴涓繃绋嬶紝灏ゅ叾鍦ㄦ垜鍥界洰鍓嶅埄鐜囨洸绾垮皻涓嶅畬澶囥€佹眹鐜囧舰鎴愭満鍒朵粛闇€杩涗竴姝ュ畬鍠勭瓑鐜涓嬶紝闇€瑕佸鎴戝浗閾惰涓氬競鍦洪闄╁埗搴﹀強鍏惰惤瀹炴儏鍐点€佷氦鏄撹处鍙峰拰琛嶇敓浜у搧鐨勪氦鏄撴儏鍐点€佷骇鍝佸畾浠枫€侀闄╃鐞嗘ā鍨嬬殑钀藉疄绛夎繘琛屽叏闈簡瑙o紝娣卞叆缁嗚嚧鍦扮爺绌跺拰鍒嗘瀽锛屼粠鑰屽埗瀹氬姞寮哄拰瀹屽杽鎴戝浗閲戣瀺鏈烘瀯甯傚満椋庨櫓绠$悊鐨勫叿浣撴柟妗堛€?/div>
 
1.2璁烘枃鐨勪富瑕佸唴瀹?/div>
涓烘彁楂樹俊璐疯祫浜ц川閲忥紝瑙勮寖淇¤捶绠$悊绋嬪簭锛屾帶鍒朵俊璐烽闄╋紝瀹屽杽淇¤捶涓氬姟鎿嶄綔鎵嬬画锛屾湁鍒╀簬绠$悊鏈烘瀯鍙婃椂鏌ヨ銆佸苟瀵圭浉鍏虫暟鎹繘琛岀粺璁″垎鏋愶紝鍦ㄤ互闃茶寖銆佹帶鍒堕闄╀负瑕佷箟鐨勫墠鎻愪笅寮€鍙戝缓璁句簡鍐滄潙淇$敤绀句俊璐风鐞嗙郴缁?浠ヤ笅绠€绉颁俊璐风鐞嗙郴缁?銆備俊璐风鐞嗙郴缁熶互瀹㈡埛淇℃伅鍜屼俊璐蜂笟鍔℃祦绋嬩负鏍稿績锛岃繘琛屼俊璐蜂笟鍔¤祫鏂欑殑閲囬泦銆佹眹鎬诲強淇¤捶涓氬姟娴佺▼鐨勭鐞嗘帶鍒?骞跺湪閲囬泦澶ч噺鍘熷瀹㈡埛淇℃伅銆佷俊璐疯祫鏂欑殑鍩虹涓婁綔鍓嶇灮鎬х殑鍒嗘瀽鍜岄璀︼紝浠ヨ揪鍒拌鑼冧俊璐风鐞嗘祦绋嬨€侀槻鑼冨拰鎺у埗淇¤捶椋庨櫓鐨勭洰鐨勩€傜郴缁熺殑寤鸿鍏奸【鐜板疄涓庡彂灞曘€佸厛杩涗笌瀹炵敤銆佺瀛︿笌绠€渚裤€佹晥鐜囦笌鏁堢泭鐩哥粨鍚堬紝鍦ㄤ互瀹㈡埛涓轰腑蹇冪殑淇¤捶绠$悊鐞嗗康鎸囧涓嬪缓璁句俊璐风鐞嗙郴缁燂紝瀹炵幇璧勬簮鍏变韩銆佸鎴峰叡浜€佷俊鎭叡浜紝浣夸俊鐢ㄧぞ绠$悊绯荤粺骞冲彴鍖栵紝婊¤冻浠婂悗淇$敤绀句俊璐风鐞嗗悇灞傛鏃ュ父涓氬姟澶勭悊鍜岄噾铻嶇粺璁℃暟鎹姤閫侀渶瑕併€?/div>
 
绗?绔犵浉鍏虫妧鏈爺绌?/div>
 
2003骞?鏈堬紝鍥藉姟闄㈠喅瀹氬湪娴欐睙绛?涓渷(甯?瀹炴柦鍐滄潙淇$敤绀炬敼闈╄瘯鐐癸紝鍦ㄧ鐞嗕綋鍒躲€佷骇鏉冩ā寮忓拰缁勭粐褰㈠紡绛夋柟闈㈠鍐滄潙淇$敤绀捐繘琛屼竴娆″叏闈㈡敼闈┿€?004骞?鏈堬紝鍐滄潙淇$敤绀炬敼闈╁湪闄ゆ捣鍗楀拰瑗胯棌浠ュ鐨?1涓渷(鍖恒€佸競)鍏ㄩ潰鎺ㄥ紑锛屽湪浼犵粺鐨?ldquo;涓夋€?rdquo;鍘熷垯鍩虹涓婏紝寮曞叆鍏ㄩ潰椋庨櫓绠$悊銆佽祫鏈厖瓒崇巼绠$悊绛夋柟娉曘€?006骞达紝涓浗閾剁洃浼氭暣浣撴帹杩涘啘鏉戦噾铻嶄綋鍒舵敼闈╋紝鍦ㄦ敼閫犵幇鏈夐噾铻嶆満鏋勶紝榧撳姳鍩硅偛鏂扮殑閲戣瀺鏈烘瀯锛屽畬鍠勯噾铻嶆湇鍔′綋绯荤瓑鏂归潰鍙栧緱绐佺牬鎬ц繘灞曘€備粠2006骞村垵寮€濮嬶紝鍏ㄥ浗鍐滄潙淇$敤绀剧郴缁熷弬鐓у浗闄呴€氳鍋氭硶锛屽璐锋瀹炶“浜旂骇”鍒嗙被锛岄€氳繃瀹炶浜旂骇鍒嗙被锛屼娇鍐滄潙鍚堜綔閲戣瀺鏈烘瀯鐨勭洃绠℃爣鍑嗕笌鍟嗕笟閾惰鐨勬爣鍑嗚揪鍒颁簡缁熶竴銆傚啘鏉戜俊鐢ㄧぞ鍦ㄨ绠楁満鏂归潰鐨勫簲鐢ㄤ笌宸ャ€佸啘銆佷腑銆佸缓绛夊晢涓氶摱琛岀浉姣旇捣姝ヨ緝鏅氾紝璧峰垵涓昏搴旂敤鍦ㄥ澶栬惀涓氫笂銆傜幇鍦紝鍐滄潙淇$敤绀惧姞澶т簡绉戞妧鎶曞叆鍔涘害锛岄噾铻嶇數瀛愬寲寤鸿杩涚▼杩涗竴姝ュ姞蹇紝浠ョ綉缁滀负渚濇墭锛屽厛鍚庡紑灞曚簡鐢靛瓙鑱旇鍙婂悇绫讳唬鏀躲€佷唬浠樼瓑涓氬姟锛屽澶栬惀涓氱殑鐢靛瓙鍖栨按骞冲熀鏈兘澶熶笌鍥涘ぇ鍥芥湁鍟嗕笟閾惰鎸佸钩銆傚悓鏃讹紝绠$悊淇℃伅鍖栧湪涓氬姟宸ヤ綔涓殑搴旂敤杩涗竴姝ュ姞寮恒€傞€氳繃绠$悊淇℃伅鐨勫強鏃跺弽棣堬紝鍐滄潙淇$敤绀惧鍔犱簡缁忚惀鏀剁泭锛岄檷浣庝簡缁忚惀椋庨櫓锛屼紭鍖栦簡浜哄姏璧勬簮鐨勯厤缃紝鎻愰珮浜嗗伐浣滄晥鐜囥€傚ぇ搴嗗競鍐滄潙淇$敤绀惧熀浜庢暟鎹粺璁$殑閲戣瀺椋庨櫓棰勮鍒嗘瀽绯荤粺搴旂敤鐨勭悊璁哄拰鍏抽敭鎶€鏈?
鍏崇郴妯″瀷鏄敱E.F.Codd鍦?970骞存彁鍑哄苟搴旂敤浜庢暟鎹簱棰嗗煙锛屾鍚庡畾涔変簡鍏崇郴鏁版嵁搴撶殑鍩烘湰姒傚康锛屽鍏崇郴鐞嗚杩涜浜嗚鑼冨寲锛屽紩鍏ヤ簡鍏崇郴浠f暟鍜屽叧绯绘紨绠楃瓑鏁版嵁鎿嶇旱璇█锛屼负鍏崇郴鏁版嵁搴撶殑鍙戝睍濂犲畾浜嗗潥瀹炵殑鍩虹銆傚叧绯绘暟鎹ā鍨嬫槸瀹氫箟鍦‥涓€R妯″瀷鍜屽叧绯绘暟瀛﹀畾涔夊熀纭€涓婄殑鏁版嵁妯″瀷锛屾妸鎻忚堪瀹炰綋鍜岃仈绯荤殑鏈夊叧灞炴€х湅鎴愭槸闆嗗悎锛岃€屾妸瀹炰綋鍜屽強鍏惰仈绯荤湅鍋氭槸寤虹珛鍦ㄨ繖浜涢泦鍚堜箣涓婄殑鍏崇郴銆傛湰鏂囦互鍏崇郴妯″瀷鐞嗚涓烘寚瀵硷紝鍒嗘瀽鍜岃璁′笟鍔℃暟鎹噰闆嗘ā鍨嬨€佸垎绫荤粺璁℃ā鍨嬪拰椋庨櫓棰勮妯″瀷銆傚熀浜庢暟鎹粺璁$殑閲戣瀺椋庨櫓棰勮鍒嗘瀽绯荤粺閲囩敤MICrosoft.NET寮€鍙戞鏋讹紝鍒╃敤ASP.NET銆丆OM/COM+缁勪欢绛夋妧鏈紑鍙態/S缁撴瀯鐨勭郴缁燂紝瀹炵幇鐢ㄦ埛鎿嶄綔涓庡悗鍙版暟鎹鐞嗙殑浜や簰铻嶅悎;鍒╃敤.NET涓板瘜鐨勮繍琛屽簱銆侀泦鎴愮殑娴嬭瘯鐜瀹屾垚棰勮鍒嗘瀽骞冲彴鍘熷瀷鐨勫缓绔嬨€?/div>
 
绗?绔?绯荤粺闇€姹傚垎鏋愬強鎬讳綋璁捐................. 20-28 
    3.1 闇€姹傚垎鏋?.................20-22 
        3.1.1 涓氬姟闇€姹?.................21 
        3.1.2 鍔熻兘闇€姹?.................21 
        3.1.3 绯荤粺闇€姹?................ 21-22 
    3.2 绯荤粺鎬讳綋璁捐................. 22-27 
    3.3 鏈珷灏忕粨................. 27-28 
绗?绔?鏁版嵁鎺ュ彛璁捐鍜屾暟鎹鐞嗗姛鑳界殑瀹炵幇................. 28-37 
    4.1 鏁版嵁鎺ュ彛鐨勮璁″拰瀹炵幇 .................28-33 
        4.1.2 鏁版嵁鎺ュ彛鐨勬牸寮忓畾涔?................ 29-30 
        4.1.3 DTS鍖呯殑瀹氫箟................. 30-32 
        4.1.4 绯荤粺鎺ュ彛鐨勯厤缃?................ 32-33 
    4.2 鏁版嵁澶勭悊鍔熻兘鐨勮璁″拰瀹炵幇 .................33-36 
        4.2.1 鏁版嵁澶勭悊鐨勭粨鏋勮璁?.................33 
        4.2.2 鏁版嵁澶勭悊鐨勬祦绋嬪鐞?.................33-34 
        4.2.3 鏁版嵁澶勭悊鐨勫璞¤璁?.................34-36 
    4.3 鏈珷灏忕粨 .................36-37 
绗?绔?椋庨櫓棰勮鍔熻兘鐨勮璁″拰瀹炵幇................. 37-51 
    5.1 椋庨櫓棰勮鍔熻兘鐨勮璁?.................37-41 
    5.2 椋庨櫓棰勮鍔熻兘鐨勫疄鐜?................ 41-50 
    5.3 椋庨櫓棰勮鍔熻兘鐨勫疄鐜?.................50 
5.4 鏈珷灏忕粨................. 50-51
 
缁撹
 
鏈枃浠ラ摱鐩戜細鎶ヨ〃涓哄簲鐢ㄥ熀纭€锛屾寜鐓ч闄╅璀︽ā鍨嬬悊璁猴紝璁捐鍜屽疄鐜颁簡鍩轰簬鏁版嵁缁熻鐨勯噾铻嶉闄╅璀﹀垎鏋愮郴缁燂紝璇ョ郴缁熻兘澶熸弧瓒冲ぇ搴嗗競鍐滄潙淇$敤绀句俊鎭寲寤鸿鍙婄洃绠¢渶瑕併€傛湰鏂囦富瑕佸畬鎴愪互涓嬪嚑鏂归潰鐨勫伐浣?
1銆佸垎鍒粠涓氬姟銆佸姛鑳姐€佺郴缁熺瓑涓変釜鏂归潰鎻忚堪浜嗗熀浜庢暟鎹粺璁$殑閲戣瀺椋庨櫓棰勮鍒嗘瀽绯荤粺鐨勯渶姹傘€?/div>
2銆侀拡瀵瑰疄闄呴渶姹傝繘琛屼簡鍔熻兘妯″潡鐨勫垝鍒嗐€佹弿杩颁簡鍚勭被鎺ュ彛鍜岀郴缁熸潈闄愶紝瀹炵幇浜嗙郴缁熺殑鎬讳綋璁捐锛屽疄鐜颁簡绯荤粺璁捐銆佺郴缁熷姛鑳借璁°€佺郴缁熸祦绋嬭璁°€?/div>
3銆佹暟鎹帴鍙g殑璁捐銆佹牸寮忓畾涔夊拰瀹炵幇銆?/div>
4銆佸疄鐜伴闄╅璀﹀垎鏋愬姛鑳界殑浣撶郴缁撴瀯銆佹祦绋嬨€佹椂搴忓浘鐨勮璁°€?/div>
鏈郴缁熻櫧鐒跺凡缁忚揪鍒颁簡棰勬湡鐨勭洰鐨勶紝浣嗗湪杩涗竴姝ヤ紭鍖栭闄╅璀︽寚鏍囦綋绯诲強棰勮妯″瀷鐨勮璁′笂杩橀渶杩涗竴姝ユ敼杩涖€?/div>
 
鍙傝€冩枃鐚?/div>
[1] B W Arthur. Competing technologies; inereasing returns and lock in by historicalevent [J].The Eeonomie Journal, 1989
[2] Bain J . Industrial Organization [M]. New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc锛?959.
[3] Bain J . Barriers to New Competition [M]. Cambridge, Mass: Harvard UniversityPress, 1956.
[4] Batt Rosemary. Explaining wage inequality in telecommunications services:Custome rsegmentation, human resource practices and union declme[J].Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 2001(10): 19-28
[5] Boyer, Mai cel. A Habit Forming Optimal Growth Model [J]. InternationalEconomic Review, 1978(19)
[6] Boyer锛孧aicel. Rational Demand and Expenditures Patterns under HabitFormation [J]. Journal of Economic Theory, 1983(31).
[7] Brynjolfsson, Erik锛孧ichael D Smith, Jeffrey Hu. Consumer surplus in the digitaleconomy: Estimating the value of increased product variety at online booksellers[J].Management Science, 2003(11): 87-89.
[8] Chakravorti, Sujit. Theory of credit card networks: A survey of the literature [J].Review of Network Economics, 2003(12):103-112.
[9] Chaloupka锛孎rank. Rational Addiction Addictive Behavior and Cigarette Smoking[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1991(99).
[10] ChappelL Davies, Griffiths. Online Computer Gaming [J]. Journal of AmerieanAcademy of Business, 2004(7):87-96.
 

涓撲笟閲戣瀺姣曚笟璁烘枃鑼冩枃绮鹃€夌瘒鍏?/h3>
 
绗竴绔?瀵?璁?/div>
 
绗竴鑺?闂鐨勬彁鍑?/div>
鍐滄埛鍏锋湁绀句細鍔熻兘鍜岀粡娴庡姛鑳藉悎涓€鐨勭壒鐐癸紝瀹冩棦鏄熀鏈殑鐢熶骇鍜屾秷璐逛富浣擄紝鍙堟槸鐙珛鐨勭敓浜х粡钀ョ鐞嗕富浣撳拰鍒╃泭鍒嗛厤涓讳綋锛岃繕鏄啘鏉戝嚑涔庡叏閮ㄧ浜虹敓娲诲拰涓€閮ㄥ垎鍏叡鐢熸椿鐨勪富浣撱€傚啘鎴峰拰瀹跺涵鍐滃満鏄袱涓苟涓嶅畬鍏ㄧ浉鍚岀殑姒傚康銆備竴绉嶈鐐硅涓哄搴啘鍦烘槸甯傚満鍖栥€佺ぞ浼氬寲銆佷骇涓氬寲澶х敓浜х殑缁勭粐褰㈠紡锛屽畬鍏ㄨ瀺鍏ュ畬鍠勭殑甯傚満锛涜€屽啘鎴风粡钀ュ皝闂€佽嚜缁欒嚜瓒炽€佸競鍦哄寲绋嬪害浣庯紝鍙槸閮ㄥ垎鍙備笌甯傚満銆傚彟涓€绉嶈鐐硅涓哄搴啘鍦烘槸绉嶆闈㈢Н澶х殑鍐滄埛锛岃€屽啘鎴锋槸鎸囧眳浣忓湪鍐滄潙鐨勫搴綇鎴凤紝浠庝簨灏戦噺鐢氳嚦涓嶄粠浜嬪啘涓氱敓浜с€傚啘鎴峰寘鍚搴啘鍦恒€傛湰鏂囩殑鐮旂┒涓昏閲囩敤鍚庝竴绉嶈鐐广€傚啘涓氶緳澶翠紒涓氭槸鎸囦互鍐滀笟鐢熶骇璧勬枡渚涘簲銆佸啘浜у搧鍔犲伐鎴栨祦閫氫负涓讳笟锛岄€氳繃鍚勭鍒╃泭鑱旂粨鏈哄埗涓庡啘鎴风浉鑱旂郴锛屽甫鍔ㄥ啘鎴疯繘鍏ュ競鍦猴紝浣垮啘浜у搧鐢熶骇銆佸姞宸ャ€侀攢鍞湁鏈虹粨鍚堛€佺浉浜掍績杩涚殑浼佷笟缁勭粐锛屽畠鏄啘涓氱幇浠e寲鍜屼骇涓氬寲鐨勬牳蹇冨唴瀹广€傝繖浜涗紒涓氱粡娴庡熀纭€杈冮泟鍘氾紝杈愬皠闈㈣緝骞匡紝鍦ㄦ垜鍥藉啘涓氫骇涓氬寲缁忚惀涓閫氫織鍦扮О涓洪緳澶翠紒涓氥€?/div>
鍥藉宸ュ晢琛屾斂绠$悊鎬诲眬 2006 骞寸 66 鍙锋枃浠舵寚鍑猴紝璁㈠崟鍐滀笟涔熺О鍚堝悓鍐滀笟鎴栧绾﹀啘涓氾紝鏄寚鍐滄皯涓庝紒涓氭垨涓粙缁勭粐鍦ㄥ啘涓氱敓浜т箣鍓嶏紝绛捐鍏锋湁娉曞緥鏁堝姏鐨勯攢鍞悎鍚岋紝鏄庣‘鍙屾柟鐩稿簲鐨勬潈鍒╀笌涔夊姟鍏崇郴锛屽啘姘戞牴鎹悎鍚岀粍缁囩敓浜э紝浼佷笟鎴栦腑浠嬬粍缁囨寜鍚堝悓鏀惰喘鍐滄皯鐢熶骇鐨勪骇鍝佺殑鍐滀笟缁忚惀褰㈠紡銆傝鍗曞啘涓氭槸浼犵粺鍐滀骇鍝侀攢鍞ā寮忕殑鍙戝睍锛屽畠寮哄寲浜嗙敓浜т笌閿€鍞殑鑱旂郴锛屼娇鍐滀骇鍝佷粠鐢熶骇鍒拌惀閿€鐨勫悇涓幆鑺傛洿鍔犲崗璋冦€傝繖绉嶅垱鏂扮殑閿€鍞ā寮忓彲浠ュ悓鏃跺讥琛ュ畬鍏ㄥ紑鏀剧殑甯傚満浜ゆ槗鍜屽畬鍏ㄥ瀭鐩寸殑涓€浣撳寲浜ゆ槗鍒嗗埆鍏锋湁鐨勭己鐐癸紝缁欎氦鏄撳弻鏂归兘甯︽潵濂藉銆傚榫欏ご浼佷笟鎴栫粡閿€鍟嗚€岃█锛屽疄鏂借鍗曞啘涓氾紝鍙互閫氳繃鎻愪緵鍚勭鍐滀笟鐢熶骇璧勬枡銆佽祫閲戜互鍙婃妧鏈敮鎸佺瓑锛屽鍐滀骇鍝佺殑鐢熶骇杩囩▼杩涜澶氭柟闈㈢殑鍗忓姪銆佹帶鍒跺拰鐩戠潱銆備竴鏂归潰鍙互涓ユ牸鎺у埗鍐滀骇鍝佽川閲忥紝浣垮叾杈惧埌浼佷笟鐨勭敓浜ф垨閿€鍞渶姹傦紱鍙︿竴鏂归潰锛屼紒涓氬彲浠ラ€氳繃鎷撳鍘熸潗鏂欐潵婧愶紝鎵╁ぇ鐢熶骇瑙勬ā锛屽舰鎴愯妯℃晥搴旓紝闄嶄綆鍘熸潗鏂欑殑鎺у埗鎴愭湰銆傚鍐滄埛鏉ヨ鍚屾牱涔熸湁濂藉锛屽湪杩欑妯″紡涓嬶紝鍙互鎵╁ぇ鍐滀骇鍝佺殑閿€璺紝鍐滀骇鍝佺殑浠锋牸涔熺浉瀵圭ǔ瀹氾紝闄嶄綆浜嗗啘鎴风殑閿€鍞垚鏈拰椋庨櫓銆傚悓鏃讹紝鍐滄埛杩樺彲浠ラ€氳繃浼佷笟鎻愪緵鐨勭瀛愩€佸寲鑲ョ瓑鐢熶骇璧勬枡鍙婄敓浜ц繃绋嬩腑鐨勬妧鏈敮鎸佺瓑鏂瑰紡闄嶄綆鐢熶骇鎴愭湰锛岀敋鑷冲彲浠ョ敤璁㈠崟鍐滀笟鑾峰緱鐭湡璐锋浠ユ彁渚涜祫閲戞敮鎸併€?/div>
 
浜屻€佺爺绌惰儗鏅?/div>
璁㈠崟鍐滀笟浣滀负浼佷笟涓庡啘鎴蜂箣闂磋繘琛屽啘涓氱敓浜у悎浣滅殑鏂瑰紡鏈夌潃鎮犱箙鐨勫巻鍙叉笂婧愩€傚畠鏈€鏃╄捣婧愪簬 1885 骞达紝鏃ユ湰涓轰繚闅滄湰鍥介绯栦緵搴旓紝鍦ㄥ彴婀句互璁㈠崟鐨勬柟寮忔敹璐埗绯栧師鏂欍€備箣鍚庯紝璁㈠崟鍐滀笟鐢熶骇鏂瑰紡鍥犲叾鑺傜害浜ゆ槗鎴愭湰銆佺紦瑙e競鍦洪闄╃瓑鏄捐憲浼樺娍锛屽湪鍏ㄧ悆鑼冨洿鍐呭緱鍒板箍娉涚殑鍙戝睍銆傝タ鏂瑰彂杈惧浗瀹朵笉浠呭湪鍥藉唴杩涜璁㈠崟鐨勭敓浜ф柟寮忥紝鑰屼笖閫氳繃璺ㄥ浗璁㈠崟鐨勬柟寮忥紝鍏呭垎鍒╃敤鍙戝睍涓浗瀹剁殑璧勬簮鍜屽粔浠风殑鍔冲姩鍔涳紝鍚屾椂甯﹀姩浜嗗彂灞曚腑鍥藉璁㈠崟鍐滀笟鐨勫彂灞曘€傝鍗曞啘涓氭墍娑夊強鐨勫啘浜у搧鑼冨洿涔熶笉鏂墿灞曪紝浣胯鍗曞啘涓氭垚涓哄浗闄呭啘涓氱敓浜х殑涓昏鏂瑰紡涔嬩竴銆傝鍗曞啘涓氬湪鎴戝浗璧锋杈冩櫄銆傛柊涓浗鎴愮珛浠ユ潵锛屾垜鍥戒竴鐩存柦琛岃鍒掔粡娴庝綋鍒讹紝鍦ㄥ啘浜у搧鐨勭敓浜х粡钀ヤ笂瀹炶“缁熻喘缁熼攢”鐨勬斂绛栵紝鐢熶骇浜ゆ槗瀹屽叏鍙楀浗瀹舵帶鍒讹紝琛ㄩ潰涓婃潵鐪嬩笉瀛樺湪鍐滀骇鍝佷緵缁欏拰闇€姹傜殑涓嶅绉伴棶棰樸€?0 涓栫邯 80 骞翠唬浠ュ悗锛岄殢鐫€甯傚満缁忔祹浣撳埗鐨勬敼闈╋紝鍐滀骇鍝佽喘閿€甯傚満鐨勫紑鏀撅紝甯傚満鏈哄埗鎴愪负璋冩帶鍐滀骇鍝佷緵姹傜殑涓昏鎵嬫锛屾垜鍥藉啘浜у搧璐攢甯傚満鏍煎眬浜х敓閲嶅ぇ杞彉銆傚啘浜у搧缁撴瀯鐨勫け琛★紝娴侀€氫綋绯荤殑涓嶅仴鍏紝瀵艰嚧鍐滀骇鍝佸競鍦轰緵姹傚拰浠锋牸鐨勫ぇ骞呮尝鍔紝浣垮啘鎴锋劅鍒版棤浠庡簲瀵癸紝灏忓啘鎴蜂笌澶у競鍦哄浣曞鎺ョ殑闂鍙樺緱鐩稿綋涓ラ噸銆?0 涓栫邯 90 骞翠唬鍚庢湡锛屽啘涓氫骇涓氬寲鏀归潻杩涚▼鐨勫姞蹇紝鎻愪緵浜嗚В鍐虫垜鍥藉啘浜у搧渚涙眰澶辫 闂鐨勬€濊矾銆傝鍗曞啘涓氬湪鎴戝浗寰楀埌蹇€熷彂灞曪紝“鍏徃+鍐滄埛”銆?ldquo;鍏徃+鍩哄湴+鍐滄埛”绛夌粍缁囨ā寮忓湪鍏ㄥ浗鍚勫湴寰楀埌鎺ㄥ箍銆?/div>
杩戝勾鏉ワ紝璁㈠崟鍐滀笟娑夊強鍒扮殑鍐滀骇鍝佸凡缁忔兜鐩栨墍鏈夊啘涓氶鍩熴€傝鍗曞啘涓氫綔涓轰紒涓氬拰鍐滄埛鐨勫叿浣撳悎浣滄柟寮忎箣涓€锛屼篃鍦ㄥ叏鍥藉悇鍦板緱鍒拌繀鐚涘彂灞曘€傚湪鎴戝浗鍚勭骇鏀垮簻鍐崇瓥灞傚拰甯傚満鍔涢噺鐨勫弻閲嶆帹鍔ㄤ笅锛岃鍗曞啘涓氬湪鍏ㄥ浗鑼冨洿鍐呭彂灞曡繀閫燂紝鍦ㄨВ鍐冲皬鍐滄埛鍜屽ぇ甯傚満瀵规帴闂涓婂彇寰椾簡姣旇緝鐞嗘兂鐨勬晥鏋溿€備絾鍚屾椂锛屽饱绾︾巼杩囦綆涔熸垚涓洪樆纰嶈鍗曞啘涓氬仴搴峰彂灞曠殑涓昏闂銆傚彟涓€鏂归潰锛屾垜鍥界殑鍐滄潙瀛樺湪鐫€涓ラ噸鐨勯噾铻嶆姂鍒堕棶棰樸€傞殢鐫€鍐滀笟鐢熶骇鐨勯泦涓寲銆佽妯″寲鍜屼笓涓氬寲锛屽啘鎴蜂粠浜嬭鍗曞啘涓氱敓浜ф椿鍔ㄩ渶瑕佽秺鏉ヨ秺澶氱殑涓撲笟鎬ц祫閲戞姇鍏ワ紝缂轰箯鎶垫娂鍝併€佹敹鍏ヤ笉绋冲畾绛夊洜绱犱娇寰楀啘鎴峰緢闅句粠姝h閲戣瀺鏈烘瀯寰楀埌璐锋銆傝繖绉嶇煕鐩惧鏋滀笉瑙e喅锛屾渶缁堝繀鐒朵細鎵撳嚮鍐滄埛浠庝簨鍐滀笟鐢熶骇鐨勭Н鏋佹€э紝闃荤鎴戝浗鍐滄皯鏀跺叆鐨勬彁楂樺拰鍐滄潙缁忔祹鐨勫彂灞曘€傛湰鏂囧湪姝ゅ熀纭€涔嬩笂锛岄€氳繃鐩存帴闈㈠悜璁㈠崟鍐滄埛鐨勮皟鏌ワ紝鍙栧緱绗竴鎵嬭祫鏂欙紝瀵瑰啘鎴峰弬涓庤鍗曠殑琛屼负杩涜鍒嗘瀽锛岃瘯鍥惧瑙傝瘎浼板啘鎴峰弬涓庤鍗曞啘涓氱殑琛屼负锛涘悓鏃讹紝閫氳繃瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽鍐滄埛閫氳繃鍙備笌璁㈠崟鍐滀笟鎻愰珮鍏朵粠姝h閲戣瀺鏈烘瀯鑾峰緱鍊熻捶鐨勮兘鍔涚殑鍙兘鎬э紝杩涜€屽垎鏋愬叾瀵规垜鍥藉啘鏉戞瑙勯噾铻嶄緵缁欎骇鐢熺殑褰卞搷锛屽湪姝ゅ熀纭€涓婃彁鍑虹浉搴旂殑鎺柦鍜屽缓璁紝渚涙斂搴滈儴闂ㄥ弬鑰冦€?/div>
 
绗簩绔?鍐滄埛鍙備笌璁㈠崟鍐滀笟琛屼负鐮旂┒
 
绗竴鑺?璁㈠崟鍐滀笟鐨勪骇鐢熶笌鍙戝睍
铏界劧璁㈠崟鍐滀笟鐨勮捣婧愪笌鍙戝睍缁忓巻浜嗗嚑涓笘绾紝閽堝璁㈠崟鍐滀笟鐨勫唴娑典汉浠篃鎻愬嚭浜嗚澶氫笉鍚岀殑鐞嗚В锛屼絾鐩墠瀵硅鍗曞啘涓氱殑瀹氫箟浠嶆病鏈夌粺涓€銆備腑鍥藉浗瀹跺伐鍟嗘€诲眬宸ュ晢甯傚瓧[2006]绗?66 鍙枫€婂叧浜庢敮鎸佸彂灞曡鍗曞啘涓氱Н鏋佸紑灞曟秹鍐滃悎鍚屽府鎵跺伐绋嬪伐浣滅殑閫氱煡銆嬫寚鍑猴紝璁㈠崟鍐滀笟鏄寚锛屽啘姘戜笌浼佷笟鎴栦腑浠嬬粍缁囧湪鍐滀笟鐢熶骇涔嬪墠锛岀璁㈠叿鏈夋硶寰嬫晥鍔涚殑浜ч攢鍚堝悓锛屾槑纭弻鏂圭浉搴旂殑鏉冨埄涓庝箟鍔″叧绯伙紝鍐滄皯鏍规嵁鍚堝悓缁勭粐鐢熶骇锛屼紒涓氭垨涓粙缁勭粐鎸夊悎鍚屾敹璐啘姘戠敓浜х殑浜у搧鐨勫啘涓氱粡钀ュ舰寮忋€備簨瀹炰笂锛岃鍗曞啘涓氭湰璐ㄤ笂鏄啘鎴蜂笌涓粙缁勭粐銆佷紒涓氫箣闂寸浉浜掗€夋嫨鍚堜綔鐨勬柟寮忥紝缁勬垚鍐滀骇鍝佺敓浜т笌閿€鍞殑渚涘簲閾撅紝閫氳繃浼樺寲閰嶇疆鎶婂悇鏂规墍鎷ユ湁鐨勫悇绉嶈祫婧愶紝鏈夋晥琛旀帴鍐滀笟浜у搧鍜屽競鍦洪渶姹傦紝浠ヨ揪鍒伴檷浣庨闄┿€佹彁楂樻敹鐩娿€佸疄鐜板叡璧㈢殑鐩殑銆?/div>
 
锛堜簩锛夊啘涓氫骇涓氬寲涓庤鍗曞啘涓氱殑鍏崇郴
鍐滀笟浜т笟鍖栧寘鍚鍗曞啘涓氾紝濡傚浘 1銆傝鍗曞啘涓氭槸鍐滀笟浜т笟鍖栫殑涓€绉嶅叿浣撳疄璺靛舰寮忋€傚啘涓氱旱鍚戜竴浣撳寲缁忚惀鏄啘涓氫骇涓氬寲鐨勫彟涓€褰㈠紡銆傛澶栵紝鍦版柟鍐滀笟鐢熶骇鍚堜綔绀撅紝鍐滀笟鍗忎細绛夊悎浣滄柟寮忎篃鏈夋晥瑙e喅浜嗗啘鎴峰拰甯傚満鐨勫尮閰嶉棶棰樸€傚洜姝や粬浠兘鏄啘涓氫骇涓氬寲鐨勫叿浣撳疄璺靛舰寮忋€傛牴鎹氦鏄撲环鏍兼槸鍚﹀浐瀹氾紝鍙互鎶婅鍗曞啘涓氬垎涓哄浐瀹氫环鏍艰鍗曞拰娴姩浠锋牸璁㈠崟涓ょ被銆傚浐瀹氫环鏍艰鍗曟槸鎸囦氦鏄撳弻鏂规寜鍥哄畾鐨勪环鏍间氦鏄撱€備紒涓氬湪绛捐鍚堝悓涔嬪墠浼氭牴鎹巻骞存儏鍐碉紝瀵逛笉鍚岀殑璐ㄩ噺纭畾涓嶅悓鐨勬敹璐环鏍笺€傚湪浜ゆ槗鏃讹紝鍙互浜嬪厛纭畾鐨勮鍗曚环鏍间负鏍囧噯锛屼笉鑰冭檻甯傚満浠锋牸銆傛诞鍔ㄤ环鏍艰鍗曟槸鎸囦簨鍏堜笉纭畾浜ゆ槗浠锋牸锛屽湪浜ゆ槗鏃讹紝鎸夌収鍐滀骇鍝佸悇璐ㄩ噺绛夌骇鐨勫競鍦轰环鏍兼垨瓒呰繃甯傚満浠锋牸鐨勪竴瀹氭瘮渚嬫敹璐€傝繖绉嶈鍗曞叿鏈夊競鍦轰繚鎶や环鐨勬煇浜涚壒鐐广€傚湪鎴戝浗鐨勮鍗曞啘涓氬疄璺典腑锛岄噰鐢ㄥ悗涓€绉嶇殑鎯呭喌杈冨銆?/div>
 
绗笁绔?鍐滄潙姝h閲戣瀺渚涚粰鐮旂┒ ................29-38 
    绗竴鑺?姝h閲戣瀺淇¤捶鐨勭晫瀹氫笌鍐呮兜 ................29 
    绗簩鑺?鍐滄埛姝h淇¤捶琛屼负鍒嗘瀽................ 29-34 
    绗笁鑺?鍐滄潙姝h閲戣瀺渚涚粰绾︽潫鍒嗘瀽................ 34-37 
    绗洓鑺?瑙e喅鍐滄埛姝h璐锋闅鹃棶棰樼殑涓€鏉℃€濊矾................ 37-38 
绗洓绔?璁㈠崟鍐滀笟瀵规瑙勯噾铻嶄緵缁欏奖鍝?............... 38-52 
    绗竴鑺?缁撴瀯鏂圭▼鐨勬瀯寤?................38-39 
    绗簩鑺?鐮旂┒鏍锋湰................ 39-43 
    绗笁鑺?瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽................ 43-48 
绗洓鑺?妯″瀷瑙i噴鍙婄粨璁?................48-52
 
缁撹
 
闅忕潃鎴戝浗鍐滀笟缁忔祹鐜颁唬鍖栧缓璁剧殑閫愭瀹屾垚锛岃鍗曞啘涓氭垚涓烘垜鍥藉啘涓氱敓浜х殑涓€绉嶆湁鏁堟ā寮忋€備絾鏄垜鍥界洰鍓嶅啘鎴疯祫閲戜笉瓒筹紝閫氳繃淇¤捶鏀寔鍙備笌璁㈠崟鍐滀笟鐨勫啘鎴峰浜庢帹鍔ㄨ鍗曞啘涓氱殑鍙戝睍銆佸姞蹇啘涓氫骇涓氱殑鍗囩骇鍏锋湁閲嶈鐨勪綔鐢ㄣ€備絾鐢辩涓夌珷鐨勫垎鏋愬彲鐭ワ紝鎴戝浗鍐滄埛闈复鍐滄潙閲戣瀺渚涚粰鍜岄渶姹傜殑鍙岄噸绾︽潫锛岀己涔忔瑙勯噾铻嶆満鏋勮姹傜殑鍚堟牸鎶垫娂鍝侊紝鍥犳锛岄渶瑕佹姷鎶煎搧鎴栨媴淇濅汉鎵嶅彂鏀炬瑙勯噾铻嶄俊璐风殑妯″紡涓嶉€傚悎鎴戝浗鐩墠鐨勫啘鎴峰€熻捶銆傚悓鏃讹紝鐢辩鍥涚珷鐨勫疄璇佸垎鏋愬彲鐭ワ紝鍙備笌璁㈠崟鍐滀笟鑳藉鏈夋晥鎻愰珮鍐滄埛鐨勫€熻捶鑳藉姏銆傛瑙勯噾铻嶆満鏋勪互璁㈠崟涓轰緷鎹紝鍚戞湁铻嶈祫闇€姹備笖鍙堟湁瓒冲淇¤捶鑳藉姏鐨勮鍗曞啘鎴峰彂鏀句俊璐凤紝涓€鏂归潰鑳藉鎻愪緵璧勯噾锛岃В鍐冲啘鎴疯祫閲戠煭缂虹殑闂锛屽彟涓€鏂归潰锛屼篃鏈夊姪浜庢瑙勯噾铻嶆満鏋勫噺灏戜氦鏄撴垚鏈紝鎻愰珮璧勯噾鐨勫埄鐢ㄦ晥鐜囷紝鍚屾椂鏇存湁鍔╀簬閲戣瀺鏈烘瀯鎺у埗椋庨櫓銆傛墿澶у啘鎴风敓浜ц妯★紝寤鸿鍐滀骇鍝佺敓浜у熀鍦帮紝鏀瑰杽鐢熶骇鏉′欢锛屾彁楂樼敓浜ф晥鐜囷紝鑳藉鏈夋晥鎻愰珮鎴戝浗鍐滀骇鍝佸湪鍥藉唴澶栧競鍦虹殑绔炰簤鍔涖€傛垜鍥界洰鍓嶇殑鐢熶骇瑙勬ā涓庡浗澶栫浉姣旇繃灏忥紝涓嶈兘閫傚簲缁忔祹鍙戝睍鐨勮姹傦紝鍚屾椂涔熶笉鑳藉疄鐜伴€傚害鐨勮妯℃晥搴斻€傝鎵╁ぇ鐢熶骇瑙勬ā鏈夊绉嶉€斿緞銆備竴鏄缓绔嬪仴鍏ㄥ湡鍦颁娇鐢ㄦ潈鐨勬祦杞埗搴︼紝淇冭繘鍦熷湴浣跨敤鏉冨湪鍐滄埛闂寸殑鑷敱娴佽浆锛屼负鍐滄埛缁忚惀鍟嗕笟鍖栥€佷紒涓氬寲鍒涢€犲繀瑕佺殑鏉′欢锛涗簩鏄垱鏂板彂灞曟柊鍨嬪啘涓氫骇涓氱粍缁囷紝濡傞€氳繃鍦熷湴浣跨敤鏉冨叆鑲°€佺閲戝寲绛夋柟寮忓皢鍦熷湴闆嗕腑璧锋潵锛屽疄鐜拌妯$粡钀ワ紱涓夋槸渚濇墭璧勬簮浼樺娍锛屽洜鍦板埗瀹滃缓璁惧啘浜у搧鐢熶骇鍩哄湴銆傜巼璁㈠崟鐨勪富浣撱€佸舰寮忋€佸唴瀹圭殑涓嶈鑼冿紝娉曞緥鎰忚瘑鐨勭己澶遍兘涓嶅彲閬垮厤鍦伴€犳垚浜嗕氦鏄撳弻鏂圭殑鎽╂摝锛岄樆纰嶄簡璁㈠崟鐨勫饱绾︺€傞珮灞ョ害鐜囨槸璁㈠崟鍐滀笟鎸佺画绋虫鍙戝睍鐨勫叧閿紝涔熸槸鍐滄埛寰楀埌铻嶈祫鐨勫繀瑕佸墠鎻愩€傝鎻愰珮璁㈠崟鐨勫饱绾︾巼棣栧厛瑕佽鑼冭鍗曠殑杩愯銆傝纭繚浜ゆ槗鍙屾柟鍦ㄥ钩绛夎嚜鎰跨殑鍩虹涓婁緷娉曠鍗曪紱璁㈠崟閲囩敤涔﹂潰褰㈠紡锛岃兘鏄庣‘浜ゆ槗鍙屾柟鐨勬潈鍒╀箟鍔″強杩濈害澶勭悊鐨勬柟娉曘€傚叾娆¤鍒跺畾鍜屽畬鍠勮鍗曞啘涓氱浉鍏崇殑娉曞緥娉曡锛涘己鍖栦氦鏄撳弻鏂圭殑娉曞緥鎰忚瘑鍜屾硶鍒惰蹇碉紝璋冩暣瀹屽杽璁㈠崟鐨勭洃鐫f満鍒讹紝鎻愰珮杩濈害鎴愭湰锛屽杩濈害鏂圭粰浜堟湁鏁堢殑鍒剁害銆?/div>
 
鍙傝€冩枃鐚?/div>
[1]宸ュ晢琛屾斂绠$悊鎬诲眬绠$悊鍙革紟璁㈠崟鍐滀笟鐞嗚涓庡疄璺碉蓟M锛斤紟鍖椾含锛氫腑鍥藉伐鍟嗗嚭鐗堢ぞ锛?006锛?6-79锛?/div>
[2]鏄撲腹杈夛紟缁撴瀯鏂圭▼妯″瀷鏂规硶涓庡簲鐢蓟M锛斤紟鍖椾含锛氫腑鍥戒汉姘戝ぇ瀛﹀嚭鐗堢ぞ锛?008
[3]渚澃娉帮紝娓╁繝楹燂紟缁撴瀯鏂圭▼妯″瀷鍙婂叾搴旂敤锛籑锛斤紟鍖椾含锛氱瀛︽暀鑲插嚭鐗堢ぞ锛?004锛?/div>
[4]榫氭槑鍗庯紟鎴戝浗鍐滄潙閲戣瀺闇€姹備笌閲戣瀺渚涚粰闂鐮旂┒锛籑锛斤紟鍖椾含锛氱粡娴庣瀛﹀嚭鐗堢ぞ锛?009锛?/div>
[5]闃攱鍎匡紟涓浗鍐滄埛鎶曡瀺璧勬満鍒剁爺绌讹蓟M锛斤紟鍖椾含锛氫腑鍥界ぞ浼氱瀛﹀嚭鐗堢ぞ锛?008锛?/div>
[6]榛勭杈夛紟璐洶鍦板尯鍐滄埛鐨勪俊璐烽渶姹備笌淇¤捶绾︽潫锛籑锛斤紟娴欐睙锛氭禉姹熷ぇ瀛﹀嚭鐗堢ぞ锛?008锛?/div>
[7]浣曟枃骞匡紟鍐滄埛淇¤捶銆佸啘鏉戜腑灏忎紒涓氳瀺璧勪笌鍐滄潙閲戣瀺甯傚満锛籑锛斤紟鍖椾含锛氫腑鍥借储鏀跨粡娴庡嚭鐗堢ぞ锛?005锛?/div>
[8]瀛熷叏鐪侊紟涓浗鍐滄埛铻嶈祫鏈哄埗鍒涙柊鐮旂┒锛籑锛斤紟鍖椾含锛氫腑鍥藉啘涓氬嚭鐗堢ぞ锛?008锛?/div>
[9]绁濈孩杈夛紟璁㈠崟鍐滀笟鍙備笌涓讳綋琛屼负鍒嗘瀽涓庣哗鏁堣瘎浠凤蓟M锛斤紟鍖椾含锛氫腑鍥藉啘涓氬嚭鐗堢ぞ锛?007锛?/div>
[10]璧电繝钀嶏紟璁㈠崟鍐滀笟鐨勮涓哄強缁╂晥鐮旂┒——浠ョ伯椋熶骇涓氫负渚嬶蓟M锛斤紟鍖椾含锛氫腑鍥藉啘涓氬嚭鐗堢ぞ锛?009锛?/div>
 

涓撲笟閲戣瀺姣曚笟璁烘枃鑼冩枃绮鹃€夌瘒涓?/h3>
 
1 瀵艰
 
1.1 閫夐鑳屾櫙
闅忕潃绀句細缁忔祹鐨勪笉鏂彂灞曪紝纭曞+璁烘枃鑼冩枃鎶€鏈垱鏂颁笌閲戣瀺鏀寔涔嬮棿鐨勫叧绯绘棩鐩婄揣瀵嗭紝褰㈡垚浜嗕竴涓浉浜掍績杩涚殑鍔ㄦ€佽繃绋嬨€備粠浜虹被鐨勭粡娴庡彂灞曞彶鏉ョ湅锛屼竴鏂归潰閲戣瀺鐜鍜岄噾铻嶆満鏋勮祫閲戞姇鍏ュ鎶€鏈垱鏂拌繃绋嬬殑娓楅€忓姏鍜屾帹鍔ㄥ姏瓒婃潵瓒婂己锛岄噾铻嶆敮鎸佸凡缁忔瀯鎴愭妧鏈垱鏂板彂灞曞繀瑕佺殑鍩虹鏉′欢锛屽彟涓€鏂归潰鏄妧鏈垱鏂板凡缁忔垚涓洪噾铻嶆敮鎸佺殑閲嶈鐗╄川鎵嬫锛岄噾铻嶇殑閫愬埄鏈€э紝鍐冲畾浜嗗叾蹇呯劧浼氭秹瓒虫妧鏈垱鏂?mdash;鎶€鏈垱鏂颁负閲戣瀺鎻愪緵浜嗚繍浣滃伐鍏蜂笌杩愪綔绌洪棿銆傞噾铻嶄綋绯诲湪鏀寔鎶€鏈垱鏂板強鍏朵骇涓氬彂灞曠殑杩囩▼涓紝瀹炵幇浜嗚嚜韬彂灞曚笌閲戣瀺娣卞寲銆傚嵆鍦ㄥ疄浣撶粡娴庝腑浠ユ妧鏈垱鏂颁负涓讳綋鐨勯珮绉戞妧浜т笟锛屽洜涓哄叾鍏锋湁鏇村ソ鐨勬垚闀挎€э紝鍏锋湁鐩稿鏇撮珮鐨勫鍊肩┖闂达紝灏变細鏇村鏄撳緱鍒伴噾铻嶇郴缁熺殑鏀寔锛屽瑙備笂淇冭繘浜嗛噾铻嶇郴缁熺殑鍙戝睍涓庡畬鍠勶紝鍚屾椂閲戣瀺鏀寔鍙堜細鎻愰珮鎶€鏈垱鏂扮殑浜у嚭鏁堢巼鍜岃浆鍖栨敹鐩娿€傛暟瀛楃粺璁¤〃鏄庯紝浠ョ編鍥戒负棣栫殑瑗挎柟鍙戣揪鍥藉绉戝鎶€鏈缁忔祹鐨勮础鐚巼杈?70%浠ヤ笂锛岃€屽浗鍐呭彧鏈?20%~30%鐨勬按骞筹紝涓よ€呯浉宸敋杩溿€傝€屼笖鍥藉唴鐨勭鐮旀垚鏋滆浆鍖栦负鍟嗗搧浠庤€屽舰鎴愯妯℃晥鐩婄殑姣旂巼寰堜綆浠呮湁 10%~15%锛屽ぇ澶т綆浜庡彂杈惧浗瀹?60%~80%鐨勮浆鍖栨按骞炽€傛妧鏈垱鏂板瓨鍦ㄧ摱棰堢殑涓昏鍘熷洜鏄浗鍐呯爺绌朵笌鍙戝睍( R&D )鐨勭粡璐规姇鍏ヤ竴鐩村浜庤緝浣庣殑姘村钩锛岃緝浣?R&D 鐨勭粡璐规姇鍏ヤ娇寰楁妧鏈垱鏂板瓨鍦ㄧ潃涓ラ噸鐨勯噾铻嶆敮鎸侀殰纰嶃€備负浜嗚兘淇濊瘉鎶€鏈垱鏂拌兘澶熼『鍒╄繘琛岋紝蹇呴』淇濊瘉鎶€鏈垱鏂版墍闇€鐨勮祫閲戞敮鎸併€?/div>
 
1.2 鐮旂┒鐨勭洰鐨勪笌鎰忎箟
 
1.2.1 鐮旂┒鐩殑
鏈枃鏃ㄥ湪浠庨噾铻嶅姛鑳界殑瑙嗚涓嬬爺绌堕噾铻嶆敮鎸佸鎶€鏈垱鏂扮殑鍔熻兘銆傞€氳繃瀵规瘮鍥藉唴澶栨妧鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佺殑鏀跨瓥鐜鍜屽疄鐜伴€斿緞锛屾壘鍑哄浗鍐呮妧鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佺殑涓嶈冻銆備互鍥藉唴娓愯繘杞建鐨勫疄璺典负鑳屾櫙锛岄拡瀵规妧鏈垱鏂拌繍鍔ㄧ殑鍙戝睍瑙勫緥锛岃璁″嚭绗﹀悎鍥藉唴鍥芥儏鐨勬妧鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佺殑鎬濊矾銆備互浣块噾铻嶇郴缁熷彂鎸ュ鎶€鏈垱鏂颁紒涓氱殑鍔熻兘锛屼績杩涚粡娴庡彲鎸佺画鍙戝睍銆?/div>
鈶?閫氳繃鍒嗘瀽鎶€鏈垱鏂扮殑椋庨櫓鎬ф€у拰閲戣瀺绯荤粺鐨勫姛鑳斤紝鐮旂┒閲戣瀺鏀寔瀵逛簬鎶€鏈垱鏂扮殑蹇呰鎬с€?/div>
鈶?閫氳繃瀵规瘮鍥藉唴澶栧湪鎶€鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佹柟闈㈢殑鏀跨瓥鐜鍜屽疄鐜伴€斿緞锛屾壘鍑哄浗鍐呭湪鎶€鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佹柟闈㈢殑涓嶈冻锛屽笇鏈涜兘缁欏浗鍐呮妧鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佷綋绯荤殑璁捐鎻愪緵鍙€熼壌鐨勭粡楠屻€?/div>
鈶?浠庨噾铻嶇郴缁熶富瀵兼ā寮忓拰璧勯噾鎶曞叆涓や釜鏂归潰鐮旂┒閲戣瀺鏀寔瀵规妧鏈垱鏂扮殑褰卞搷銆備竴鏂归潰瀵规瘮鑲″競绛硅祫棰濆拰璐锋鎬婚瀵规妧鏈垱鏂扮殑褰卞搷鍔涘害锛屽疄璇佸浗鍐呴噾铻嶇郴缁熶富瀵兼ā寮忕殑鏈夋晥鎬э紱鍙︿竴鏂归潰鍒嗘瀽璧勯噾鎶曞叆瀵规妧鏈垱鏂拌兘鍔涚殑涓嶅悓鏂归潰褰卞搷鐨勫樊寮傦紝鎸囧嚭鍥藉唴鎶€鏈垱鏂板湪閲戣瀺铻嶈祫鏂归潰鎵€瀛樺湪鐨勫紛绔拰搴旇鏀硅繘鐨勬柟鍚戙€?/div>
鈶?閽堝鍥藉唴鎶€鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佸瓨鍦ㄧ殑闂锛屾瀯寤洪€傚悎鍥藉唴鎶€鏈垱鏂扮殑閲戣瀺鏀跨瓥鐜鍜屾嫇瀹芥妧鏈垱鏂拌瀺璧勭殑閫斿緞銆傛湰鐫€鐞嗚鏈嶅姟浜庡疄璺电殑鍘熷垯鍜岀悊蹇碉紝鍦ㄥ浗鍐呰嚜涓诲垱鏂版垬鐣ョ殑瀹炴柦杩囩▼涓紝鎵撶牬鍥藉唴鍗曚竴閲戣瀺鍔熻兘鐨勪綆鏁堥攣瀹氱姸鎬侊紝淇冭繘鍥藉唴鍒涙柊鑳藉姏鐨勬彁鍗囷紝鎺ㄨ繘鍥藉唴寤虹珛鍒涙柊鍨嬪浗瀹剁殑闀胯繙鎴樼暐銆?/div>
 
1.2.2 鐮旂┒鎰忎箟
绾佃鍙戣揪鍥藉鐨勫彂灞曞巻绋嬶紝鎶€鏈垱鏂板拰閲戣瀺鏀寔鏄瘑涓嶅彲鍒嗙殑銆傝壇濂界殑閲戣瀺鐜鏄彁楂樹竴涓浗瀹舵妧鏈垱鏂板彂灞曠殑閲嶈褰卞搷鍥犵礌锛屼絾鏄噾铻嶆敮鎸佹槸閫氳繃浣曠璺緞浣滅敤浜庢妧鏈垱鏂板強涓嶅悓閲戣瀺涓粙鍦ㄤ績杩涙妧鏈垱鏂拌繃绋嬩腑濡備綍鍙戞尌浣滅敤鐨勶紵鏈枃閽堝鍥藉唴閲戣瀺鏀寔鐨勭幆澧冨拰璺緞灞曞紑鎺㈢储鐮旂┒锛屼笉浠呮彮绀轰簡鑲″競绛硅祫棰濄€佽捶娆炬€婚涓庢妧鏈垱鏂扮殑鍐呭湪鑱旂郴锛岃€屼笖瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽浜嗚祫閲戞姇鍏ヤ笌鎶€鏈垱鏂拌兘鍔涗箣闂寸殑鍏崇郴銆傛彮绀哄嚭鍥藉唴鍦ㄦ妧鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佺殑涓嶈冻涓庣己闄凤紝鍒涘缓浜嗗浗鍐呭叧浜庨噾铻嶇郴缁熶績杩涙妧鏈垱鏂扮殑鐞嗚妗嗘灦锛屼粠鑰屼娇寰楀浗鍐呮妧鏈垱鏂扮爺绌剁悊璁烘洿鍔犲畬鍠勫拰鍋ュ叏銆傜爺绌舵妧鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶇郴缁熺殑涓昏鐩殑锛屽氨鏄壘鍑哄奖鍝嶆妧鏈垱鏂颁腑铻嶈祫鐨勫奖鍝嶅洜绱狅紝骞舵湁鏁堝湴寮曞璧勯噾鏀寔鎶€鏈垱鏂扮殑浼佷笟锛岃瀺璧勭殑鍏抽敭鍦ㄤ簬濡備綍鎻愰珮閲戣瀺绯荤粺鐨勮繍浣滄晥鐜囷紝浠庤€屾彁楂樻妧鏈垱鏂扮殑鏁堢巼銆傞鍏堝姣斾簡鍥介檯鎶€鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佺殑缁忛獙锛屾壘鍑轰笉鍚屽浗瀹跺湪璧勬湰铻嶈祫涓婄殑浼樺娍锛岃繖鏈夊姪浜庡缓绔嬪浗鍐呮湁鍏虫妧鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佺殑缁忔祹绯荤粺銆傚叾瀹炴棭鍦?ldquo;鍏簲”鏈熼棿锛屾妧鏈垱鏂板氨鎴愪负鍥藉唴绉戠爺鐨勮棰橈紝鍦ㄧ爺绌朵腑鍙戠幇鎶€鏈垱鏂扮殑闅滅鍦ㄤ簬铻嶈祫缂哄彛鎵€瀵艰嚧鐨勬妧鏈垱鏂颁笉鎴愮啛锛岃繖灏遍€犳垚浜嗘妧鏈垱鏂板拰閲戣瀺绯荤粺鐨勫弻娴垂锛屽鑷村浗鍐呯殑鎶€鏈垱鏂板苟娌℃湁鍏呭垎鐨勫彂鎸ヨ祫鏈殑涔樻暟鏁堝簲锛岀粡娴庡彂灞曚篃娌℃湁鑳藉寰楀埌搴旀湁鐨勫彂灞曘€傚叾娆′腑鍥芥牳蹇冪珵浜夊姏涓庡ぇ鍥藉湴浣嶄笉鐩哥鍚堬紝缁撴瀯鎴愪负绔炰簤鍔涙彁鍗囩殑鐡堕[3]锛岃櫧鐒剁粡娴庣粨鏋勭殑鎻愬崌鍙楅噾铻嶃€佹妧鏈€佷紒涓氱瓑寰堝鍥犵礌鐨勫奖鍝嶏紝浣嗘槸閲戣瀺婊炲悗鎵€浜х敓鐨勯噾铻嶆姂鍒朵笉浠呭彲浠ュ鑷磋祫婧愭氮璐硅€屼笖杩樹細闃荤缁忔祹鐨勮繍钀ユ晥鐜囷紝浠庤€岄樆纰嶄簡缁忔祹缁撴瀯鐨勬彁鍗囥€傚鎶€鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佺殑鐮旂┒鏈夊姪浜庡甫鍔ㄥ浗鍐呯粡娴庡闀挎柟寮忕殑杞彉鍜岀粡娴庣粨鏋勭殑鎻愬崌銆?/div>
 
2 鎶€鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佺殑鐩稿叧鐞嗚
 
2.1 鎶€鏈垱鏂扮浉鍏崇悊璁?/div>
“鍒涙柊”涓€璇嶇敱缇庣睄濂ュ湴鍒╃粡娴庡瀹剁害鐟熷か•鐔婂郊鐗逛簬 1912 骞村湪銆婄粡娴庡彂灞曠悊璁恒€嬩竴涔︿腑棣栨鎻愬嚭銆?939 骞翠粬鍦ㄣ€婂晢涓氬懆鍒娿€嬩腑姣旇緝鍏ㄩ潰鍦伴槓杩颁簡浠栫殑鍒涙柊鐞嗚銆備粬璁や负鎵€璋?ldquo;鍒涙柊”灏辨槸“寤虹珛涓€绉嶆柊鐨勭敓浜у嚱鏁?rdquo;锛屼篃灏辨槸璇达紝鎶婁竴绉嶄粠鏉ユ病鏈夎繃鐨勫叧浜庣敓浜ц绱犲拰鐢熶骇鏉′欢鐨勬柊缁勫悎寮曞叆鐢熶骇浣撶郴[1]锛屽嵆鎶涘紑鏃х殑涓滆タ鑰屽垱閫犳柊鐨勭敓浜т綋绯籟3]銆備粬鎶婂垱鏂版椿鍔ㄥ綊缁撲负浜旂褰㈠紡锛氣懘 鐢熶骇鏂颁骇鍝佹垨鎻愪緵涓€绉嶄骇鍝佺殑鏂拌川閲忥紱鈶?閲囩敤涓€绉嶆柊鐨勭敓浜ф柟娉曘€佹柊鎶€鏈垨鏂板伐鑹猴紱鈶?寮€鎷撴柊甯傚満锛涒懛 鑾峰緱涓€绉嶅師鏉愭枡鎴栧崐鎴愬搧鐨勬柊鐨勪緵缁欐潵婧愶紱鈶?瀹炶鏂扮殑浼佷笟缁勭粐鏂瑰紡鎴栫鐞嗘柟娉曘€傛墍璋撴妧鏈垱鏂版槸涓€涓粠浜х敓鏂颁骇鍝佹垨鏂板伐鑹虹殑璁炬兂鍒板競鍦哄簲鐢ㄧ殑瀹屾暣杩囩▼锛屽畠鍖呮嫭鏂拌鎯崇殑浜х敓銆佺爺绌躲€佸紑鍙戙€佸晢涓氬寲鐢熶骇鍒版墿鏁h繖鏍蜂竴绯诲垪娲诲姩锛屾湰璐ㄤ笂鏄竴涓鎶€銆佺粡娴庝竴浣撳寲杩囩▼锛屾槸鎶€鏈繘姝ヤ笌搴旂敤鍒涙柊鍏卞悓浣滅敤鍌敓鐨勪骇鐗4]銆傜瀛︽槸鎶€鏈箣婧愶紝鎶€鏈槸浜т笟涔嬫簮锛屾妧鏈垱鏂板缓绔嬪湪绉戝閬撶悊鐨勫彂鐜板熀纭€涔嬩笂锛岃€屼骇涓氬垱鏂颁富瑕佸缓绔嬪湪鎶€鏈垱鏂板熀纭€涔嬩笂銆俒2]鎶€鏈垱鏂板氨鏄紒涓氫负鍝嶅簲涓庢弧瓒冲競鍦洪渶姹傘€佸苟鍒烘縺鍜岄噸鍒涘競鍦洪渶姹備娇浼佷笟鎶€鏈按骞炽€佷骇鍝佹。娆″拰缁忚惀绠$悊姘村钩鍗囩骇鎹唬鐨勮繃绋嬨€傛妧鏈垱鏂扮殑鐗瑰緛涓昏浣撶幇鍦ㄢ懘鎶€鏈垱鏂颁笉鍚屼簬鎶€鏈繘姝ワ紝鎶€鏈繘姝ユ槸鎸囨妧鏈墍娑电洊鐨勫悇绉嶅舰寮忕煡璇嗙殑绉疮涓庢敼杩沎5]銆傝€屾妧鏈垱鏂版槸“鐢熶骇鍑芥暟鐨勭Щ鍔?rdquo;锛屾槸鎶€鏈繘姝ヤ笌搴旂敤鍒涙柊“鍙岃灪鏃嬬粨鏋?rdquo;鍏卞悓浣滅敤鍌敓鐨勪骇鐗┿€傗懙 鎶€鏈垱鏂颁篃涓嶅悓浜庣爺绌跺紑鍙戯紝鐮旂┒寮€鍙戞槸鍒涙柊鐨勫墠鏈熼樁娈碉紝鏄垱鏂扮殑鎶曞叆銆佸垱鏂版垚鍔熺殑鐗╄川鍩虹鍜岀瀛﹀熀纭€銆傗懚鎶€鏈垱鏂版槸绉戞妧娲诲姩杩囩▼涓殑涓€涓壒娈婇樁娈碉紝鍗虫妧鏈鍩熶笌缁忔祹棰嗗煙涔嬮棿鐨勬妧鏈粡娴庨鍩燂紝鍏舵牳蹇冩槸鐭ヨ瘑鍟嗕笟鍖栵紝鍏剁洰鐨勪笉浠呬粎鏄鎺ㄥ姩鎶€鏈繘姝ュ拰鐢熶骇鍙戝睍锛屼富瑕佸湪浜?ldquo;瀹炵幇绀句細鍟嗕笟浠峰€?rdquo;锛屾妧鏈垱鏂拌浆鍖栦负鏀剁泭鐨勮繃绋嬪嵆鏄ぞ浼氶渶姹備笌鍙戞槑鎴愭灉铻嶅悎鐨勮繃绋嬨€?/div>
 
3 涓浗閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鍘嗙▼................ 20-27 
    3.1 1979-1992骞撮噾铻嶄綋鍒剁殑鏀归潻................ 20-21 
    3.2 1993骞翠互鍚庣殑閲戣瀺浣撳埗鏀归潻................ 21-23 
    3.3 1979骞翠互鍚庣殑閲戣瀺甯傚満鏀归潻................ 23-27 
4 鐞嗚妯″瀷涓庣爺绌舵柟娉?............... 27-32 
    4.1 鐞嗚妯″瀷 ................27-30 
    4.2 鍙橀噺閫夋嫨 ................30-32 
5 瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽................ 32-44 
    5.1 涓绘垚鍒嗗垎鏋?............... 32-37 
        5.1.1 瀛h妭璋冩暣................ 32-34 
        5.1.2 涓绘垚鍒嗗垎鏋?............... 34-37 
    5.2 璁¢噺妫€楠?................37-43 
        5.2.1 鍗曚綅鏍逛笌娈嬪樊搴忓垪鑷浉鍏虫楠?............... 37-42 
        5.2.2 鍗忔暣妫€楠?............... 42 
        5.2.3 鏍煎叞鏉板洜鏋滄楠?................42-43 
5.3 瀹炶瘉缁撴灉鍒嗘瀽涓庨娴?................43-44
 
缁撹
 
鈶?閫氳繃瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽鍥藉唴閲戣瀺绯荤粺鐨勪富瀵兼ā寮忓鎶€鏈垱鏂扮殑褰卞搷锛屽彂鐜板浗鍐呰祫鏈競鍦虹璧勯涓庨噾铻嶆満鏋勮捶娆鹃瀵规妧鏈垱鏂伴兘璧峰埌浜嗕績杩涗綔鐢紝浣嗘槸褰卞搷鍔涘害瀛樺湪宸紓銆傝繖灏辫鏄庡浗鍐呴噾铻嶇郴缁熺幇琛岀殑涓诲妯″紡涓嶅お閫傚悎鎶€鏈垱鏂帮紝骞舵病鏈変负鎶€鏈垱鏂扮殑鍙戝睍甯︽潵鏄捐憲鍦颁績杩涗綔鐢ㄣ€?/div>
鈶?閫氳繃瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽璧勯噾鎶曞叆瀵规妧鏈垱鏂扮殑褰卞搷锛屽彂鐜板浗鍐呬紒涓氭妧鏈垱鏂颁粛鐒跺瓨鍦ㄧ潃铻嶈祫闅撅紝铻嶈祫涓嶈冻鐨勯棶棰樸€傛妧鏈垱鏂扮殑涓昏璧勯噾鏉ユ簮浜庝紒涓氾紝鏀垮簻鍜岄噾铻嶆満鏋勭殑璧勯噾瀵圭爺鍙戞椂闂撮暱锛屼笉纭畾澶с€侀闄╃郴鏁伴珮鐨勫彂鏄庢敮鎸佸姏搴﹀皬锛屽挨鍏舵槸閲戣瀺鏈烘瀯娌℃湁浣撶幇鍑洪噾铻嶇郴缁熸墍搴旀湁鐨勫姛鑳姐€?/div>
鈶?閫氳繃瀵规瘮鍥藉唴澶栫殑鎶€鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佺殑鏀跨瓥鐜鍜屽疄鐜伴€斿緞锛屾壘鍑哄浗鍐呭湪鎶€鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佹柟闈㈢殑灞€闄愭€э紝鎻愬嚭鏋勫缓鎶€鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶇幆澧冪殑鏀跨瓥瀹夋帓鍜屾嫇灞曟妧鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佺殑瀹炵幇閫斿緞銆?/div>
鏈枃鍒涙柊涔嬪
鈶?瀵规瘮浜嗗浗鍐呭鎶€鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佺殑鏀跨瓥鐜鍙婂疄鐜伴€斿緞锛屼粠缁嗚妭涓婃壘鍑轰簡鍥藉唴鍦ㄦ妧鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶅畨鎺掍笂鐨勪笉瓒炽€?/div>
鈶?閫氳繃瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽閲戣瀺绯荤粺涓诲妯″紡鍜岃祫閲戞姇鍏ュ鍥藉唴鎶€鏈垱鏂拌瀺璧勯棶棰樼殑褰卞搷锛屾壘鍑哄浗鍐呭湪鎶€鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佺殑鏀跨瓥鐜鍜屽疄鐜伴€斿緞涓婄殑寮婄涓庡眬闄愭€с€?/div>
鈶?鍒╃敤浜嗗畾鎬у垎鏋愪笌瀹氶噺鍒嗘瀽鐩哥粨鍚堛€佽鑼冨垎鏋愪笌瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽鐩哥粨鍚堛€佹瘮杈冨垎鏋愪笌缁煎悎鍒嗘瀽鐩哥粨鍚堢瓑鏂规硶锛屽叏闈㈠叿浣撶殑璇存槑浜嗗浗鍐呮妧鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佺殑鐜扮姸锛屽苟涓烘湭鏉ュ浗鍐呮妧鏈垱鏂伴噾铻嶆敮鎸佺殑鍙戝睍缁欏嚭姝g‘鐨勫缓璁€?/div>
 
鍙?鑰?鏂?鐚?/div>
[1] 寮犻.閲戣瀺鍒涙柊涓庢妧鏈垱鏂板叧绯荤殑鐮旂┒[D]. 纭曞+瀛︿綅璁烘枃.澶╂触:澶╂触澶у锛?005
[2] 榛勫畻杩?浜т笟鍙戝睍鐨勬満閬囦笌鏈洪亣鍨嬩骇涓氱殑鍙戝睍 —褰撲唬涓浗鍓嶅彂杈惧湴鍖轰骇涓氬彂灞曠爺绌禰D].鍗氬+瀛︿綅璁烘枃.鍖椾含:鍖椾含浜ら€氬ぇ瀛︼紝2008.
[3] 鏉庣帀绾?浜т笟铻嶅悎鐨勬垚鍥犲強褰卞搷鍒嗘瀽[D]. 纭曞+瀛︿綅璁烘枃.鐭冲搴?娌冲寳缁忚锤澶у锛?004.
[4] 寮犲啝鐢?渚濇墭涓€姹介泦鍥㈡彁鍗囬暱鏄ユ苯杞︿骇涓氱珵浜夊姏鐮旂┒[D]. 纭曞+瀛︿綅璁烘枃.闀挎槬:闀挎槬鐞嗗伐澶у锛?009.
[5] 鏉庡姴鏉?鎶€鏈垱鏂扮敓鎬佸寲鐨勬斂绛栨姊忓強瀵圭瓥[D]. 纭曞+瀛︿綅璁烘枃.鍚堣偉:鍚堣偉澶у锛?009.
[6] 鏉滀紵.浼佷笟鎶€鏈垱鏂版縺鍔卞埗搴﹁[D]. 鍗氬+瀛︿綅璁烘枃.鎴愰兘:鍥涘窛澶у锛?002.
[7] 鐜嬪啲.閲戣瀺涓粙鍙戝睍涓庡叏瑕佺礌鐢熶骇鐜囨晥搴?mdash;—涓浗璺ㄧ渷鏁版嵁鐨勫疄璇佸垎鏋怺D]. 纭曞+瀛︿綅璁烘枃.瑗垮畨:瑗垮寳澶у锛?010
[8] 榫欐竻鍗?鐭ヨ瘑浜ф潈鎴樼暐涓庝紶缁熺煡璇嗕繚鎶?mdash;—浠ヨ吹宸炰负瑙嗚[D]. 纭曞+瀛︿綅璁烘枃.璐靛窞:璐靛窞甯堣寖澶у锛?009.
[9] 寮犳稕锛岄檲纾婏紝鐜嬪鏂?铻嶈祫妯″紡銆佷俊鎭崗璋冧笌鎶€鏈噰鐢╗J].涓栫晫缁忔祹锛?008锛?1锛?
[10] 绾︾憻澶?bull;鐔婂郊鐗?缁忔祹鍙戝睍鐞嗚[M].鍖椾含:鍟嗗姟鍗颁功棣嗭紝1990锛?8–85.
 

涓撲笟閲戣瀺姣曚笟璁烘枃鑼冩枃绮鹃€夌瘒鍏?/h3>
 
绗竴绔犵华璁?/div>
 
1.1鐮旂┒鑳屾櫙涓庣爺绌舵剰涔?/div>
鑷柊涓浗鎴愮珛浠ユ潵锛屼腑鍥界殑缁忔祹鍙戠敓浜嗙炕澶╄鍦扮殑鍙樺寲锛岀幇鍦ㄤ腑鍥界殑GDP宸茬粡鍦ㄥ叏鐞冨ぇ瀹舵棌涓崰鏈夌浉褰撳ぇ鐨勪唤棰濓紝涓轰笘鐣岀粡娴庡仛鍑轰簡寰堝ぇ鐨勮础鐚€備笌姝ゅ悓鏃讹紝鎴戝浗鐨勪汉姘戠敓娲昏川閲忓凡缁忚繄鍏ュ皬搴锋按骞炽€備粠1953骞磋嚦浠婏紝涓浗鍦ㄤ簲骞磋鍒掔殑绛栫暐寮曢涓嬶紝鎶婄粡娴庡缓璁炬悶寰楀鐏鑼讹紝浣垮緱涓浗缁忔祹姣忓勾閮藉湪澧為暱鐨勯亾璺笂鍓嶈繘锛屼负鎴戝浗鐨勭箒鑽e瘜寮烘墦涓嬩簡鍧氬疄鐨勫湴鍩?鐗瑰埆鏄敼闈╁紑鏀句互鏉ワ紝涓浗缁忔祹杩涘叆浜嗚浜虹尽鎱曠殑鍙戝睍閫熷害銆傝繖鏄洜涓哄垵姝ュ缓鎴愮殑绀句細涓讳箟甯傚満缁忔祹浣撳埗鍙戞尌鐫€鍏惰祫婧愰厤缃殑鑳藉姏锛屾湁鏁堝湴淇冭繘鐫€涓浗缁忔祹鐨勭ǔ姝ユ帹杩?鍙﹀锛屾垜鍥界殑瀹忚璋冩帶浣撶郴閫愭笎瀹屽杽锛屼娇寰楁垜鍥界粡娴庣殑鍙戝睍鏇村姞绋虫銆傜幇闃舵锛屾垜鍥界殑缁忔祹浣撳埗鏍煎眬鏄互鍏湁鍒剁粡娴庝负涓讳綋锛屽苟鍏卞悓鍙戝睍闈炲叕鏈夊埗缁忔祹涓讳綋锛屾垜鍥界殑缁忔祹澧為暱鏂瑰紡涔熼€愭鐢辩矖鏀惧瀷杞彉鎴愰泦绾﹀瀷銆傞噾铻嶆柟闈紝鑷?978骞存敼闈╁紑鏀句互鏉ワ紝鎴戝浗閲戣瀺鐨勫彂灞曡繘鍏ヤ簡鏂伴樁娈碉紝楂橀€熷彂灞曠殑缁忔祹鍙栧緱浜嗕笘鐣岀灘鐩殑鎴愭晥锛屽湪GDP涓噾铻嶆€婚噺瑙勬ā鍗燝DP鐨勬瘮渚嬫瘡骞村湪涓嶆柇澧炲ぇ锛屽彲瑙侀噾铻嶇殑鏀归潻鏋佸ぇ鍦颁績杩涗簡鎴戝浗缁忔祹鐨勫彂灞曘€傚彲鏄棶棰樹篃涓€鐩村厖鏂ョ潃鎴戝浗閲戣瀺鏀归潻鐨勮繃绋嬶紝涓€鐩撮潪甯镐弗宄汇€傝繎鍑犲勾鏉ワ紝閲戣瀺涓粙銆侀噾铻嶇粨鏋勩€侀噾铻嶅紑鏀俱€侀噾铻嶅垱鏂板湪鎴戝浗閮芥樉绀轰簡鍙戝睍鐨勫姴澶淬€傚彲鏄腑鍥介摱琛屼笟鐨勬敼闈╂槸涓€绉嶅己鍒舵€у埗搴﹀彉杩併€傚叾鏀归潻鐨勬瘡涓€姝ラ兘婧愪簬鏀垮簻寮哄埗鎬т緵缁欒涓猴紝鑰屼笉鏄鑷存€ф斂搴滈渶姹傝涓猴紝鏇翠笉鏄鑷存€у井瑙傞噾铻嶄紒涓氶渶姹傝涓恒€備腑鍥介摱琛屼笟鐨勬敼闈╂湁鐫€寮虹儓鐨勮矾寰勪緷璧栥€傚叾鐗圭偣鏄竴绉嶅埗搴︿竴鏃﹀舰鎴愶紝涓嶇鏄惁鏈夋晥锛岄兘浼氬湪涓€瀹氭椂鏈熷唴鎸佺画瀛樺湪骞跺奖鍝嶅叾鍚庣殑鍒跺害閫夋嫨銆備腑鍥介摱琛屼笟鐨勬敼闈╂槸涓€绉嶆笎杩涘紡鍒跺害鍙樿縼銆備竴涓樉钁楃殑鐗圭偣鏄?鏀归潻鍦ㄥ潥鎸佸叕鏈変骇鏉冧负涓讳綋鐨勫墠鎻愪笅锛岄€氳繃浣撳埗澶栨帹鍔紝浠ュ閲忔敼闈╁甫鍔ㄥ瓨閲忚皟鏁淬€備竴鐩翠互鏉ワ紝鍥芥湁浼佷笟銆佸晢涓氶摱琛屼骇鏉冪殑妯$硦浣垮叾缂轰箯閫氳繃鍒跺害鍙樿縼鑰岃幏鍙栧閮ㄥ埄娑︾殑鍔ㄥ姏锛屽舰鎴愪竴绉?ldquo;鍙橀潻鎯版€?rdquo;锛屽洜姝わ紝蹇呴』璧颁綋鍒跺澧為噺鏀归潻寮曡嚧浣撳埗鍐呭瓨閲忔敼闈╃殑閬撹矾銆備綔涓哄垵濮嬪彉闈╃殑鏃㈠緱鍒╃泭鑰咃紝鍥芥湁鍟嗕笟閾惰鍜屽浗鏈変紒涓氭棦涓嶆兂鍥炲埌“闆嗘潈鍨?rdquo;浣撳埗涓幓锛屼篃涓嶆兂閫氳繃鍒跺害鍙樿縼閫€鍒板競鍦轰綋绯讳腑鏉ャ€傝繖绉嶆敼闈╂柟寮忔槸鍦ㄥ瓨閲忔敼涓嶅姩鐨勬椂鍊欙紝鍏堥€氳繃澧為噺鏀归潻鏉ュ彂灞曟柊浣撳埗锛岄殢鐫€澧為噺鏀归潻鐨勭Н绱渶缁堝甫鍔ㄥ瓨閲忕殑鏀归潻銆?/div>
浜т笟缁撴瀯鏂归潰锛岀粡杩囧崐涓涓栫邯鐨勫彂灞曪紝鎴戝浗缁忔祹宸插熀鏈憡鍒簡浼犵粺璁″垝缁忔祹浣撳埗涓嬬殑鐭己缁忔祹锛屽湪缁忔祹鎬婚噺鐭涚浘寰楀埌缂撹В鐨勫悓鏃讹紝缁撴瀯闂姝f棩鐩婄獊鍑猴紝浜т笟缁撴瀯涓€璋冩暣鍙婁紭鍖栧繁缁忔垚涓虹粡娴庡彂灞曠殑涓昏鎺ㄥ姩鍔涖€傛垜鍥界殑“鍗佷竴浜?rdquo;瑙勫垝鎶婁骇涓氱粨鏋勭殑璋冩暣浣滀负涓昏鐨勭洰鏍囦箣涓€:“瀹炵幇鍥芥皯缁忔祹鎸佺画蹇€熷仴搴峰彂灞曪紝蹇呴』浠ユ彁楂樼粡娴庢晥鐩婁负涓績锛屽缁忔祹缁撴瀯杩涜鎴樼暐鎬ц皟鏁淬€傝繖鏄彁楂樺浗姘戠粡娴庣礌璐紝鎵╁ぇ鍥藉唴闇€姹傦紝澧炲己鍥介檯绔炰簤涓€鍔涚殑鏍规湰鎬ф帾鏂姐€?rdquo;鍏充簬鏂扮枂锛岀敱浜庝綅浜庣浉瀵硅惤鍚庣殑涓浗瑗块儴鍦板尯锛屾柊鐤嗙殑缁忔祹鍙戝睍姘村钩鐩稿浜庡叾浠栧湴鍖虹湅鏄瘮杈冧綆鐨勶紝铏界劧鏂扮枂閲戣瀺鍦ㄨ妯°€佹晥鐜囥€佺粨鏋勭瓑鏂归潰鍙栧緱浜嗘槑鏄剧殑鏀瑰杽锛屽湪閲戣瀺浜у搧鐨勬彁渚涖€侀噾铻嶆妧鏈殑鍙戝睍鏂归潰閮芥湁浜嗗緢澶х殑杩涙锛屽熀鏈笂褰㈡垚浜嗕竴涓浉瀵规潵璁叉瘮杈冨畬鏁寸殑閲戣瀺浣撶郴锛屼絾涓庢垜鍥戒笢閮ㄥ彂灞曡緝蹇殑鍦板尯鐩告瘮锛屾柊鐤嗙殑閲戣瀺杩涚▼鏄浉褰撴參鐨勩€傚湪杩欐牱鐨勫舰鍔夸笅锛岀爺绌舵柊鐤嗛噾铻嶅彂灞曚笌浜т笟缁撴瀯浼樺寲鐨勫叧绯诲彲浠ユ洿濂藉湴閰嶇疆鏂扮枂閲戣瀺璧勬簮锛屼績杩涙柊鐤嗕骇涓氱粨鏋勪紭鍖栵紝鏇村ソ鍦版媺鍔ㄦ柊鐤嗙粡娴庡闀裤€?/div>
 
1.1.2鐮旂┒鎰忎箟
鐮旂┒閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鍦ㄦ柊鐤嗕骇涓氱粨鏋勪紭鍖栦腑鐨勪綔鐢紝鍏呭垎璁よ瘑鏂扮枂閲戣瀺鍙戝睍濡備綍浣滅敤浜庝骇涓氱粨鏋勪紭鍖栵紝鍙互鏇村ソ鍦伴厤缃噾铻嶈祫婧愪互淇冭繘浜т笟缁撴瀯浼樺寲锛岃繖涓嶄粎鏈夊埄浜庢柊鐤嗕骇涓氱粨鏋勪紭鍖栵紝鏇村ソ鍦颁績杩涙柊鐤嗙粡娴庡闀匡紝鑰屼笖瀵逛簬缂╁皬涓滆タ閮ㄧ殑宸窛銆佹瀯寤哄拰璋愪腑鍥芥湁閲嶅ぇ鐨勬剰涔夈€?/div>
 
1.2鍥藉唴澶栫爺绌跺姩鎬?/div>
 
1.2.1鍏充簬浜т笟缁撴瀯鐞嗚鐮旂┒姒傝堪
20涓栫邯30銆?0骞翠唬鏄幇浠d骇涓氱粨鏋勭悊璁虹殑褰㈡垚鏃舵湡銆傚湪杩欎釜鏃舵湡锛岀編鍥界粡娴庡瀹跺簱鍏规秴鑼ㄣ€佽嫳鍥界粡娴庡瀹跺厠鎷夊厠銆佹棩鏈粡娴庡瀹惰丹鏉捐绛変汉瀵逛骇涓氱粨鏋勭悊璁虹殑褰㈡垚鍋氬嚭绐佸嚭璐$尞銆?940骞达紝鍏嬫媺鍏嬪嚭鐗堜簡銆婄粡娴庡彂灞曟潯浠躲€嬭繖涓€钁椾綔锛屽厠鎷夊厠閫氳繃鍒嗘瀽澶氫釜鍦板尯銆佸浗瀹跺湪涓嶅悓鏃舵湡涓夋浜т笟鍔冲姩鎶曞叆鍜屾€讳骇鍑虹殑璧勬枡骞剁粨鍚堥厤绗殑鐞嗚锛屽緱鍑轰簡閰嶇涓€鍏嬫媺鍏嬪畾鐞嗐€傝鐞嗚鎸囧嚭灏变笟浜哄彛棣栧厛闅忕潃鍏ㄧぞ浼氫汉鍧囧浗姘戞敹鍏ユ按骞崇殑涓嶆柇鎻愰珮浼氫粠绗竴浜т笟鍚戠浜屼骇涓氳浆绉绘渶缁堝悜绗笁浜т笟杞Щ銆?941骞达紝搴撳吂娑呰尐鍦ㄥ叾钁椾綔銆婂浗姘戞敹鍏ュ強鍏舵瀯鎴愩€嬩腑璇︾粏闃愯堪浜嗕骇涓氱粨鏋勪笌鍥芥皯鏀跺叆涔嬮棿鐨勯噸瑕佽仈绯汇€傚簱鍏规秴鑼ㄧ爺绌朵簡澶ч噺鐨勫巻鍙层€佺粡娴庤祫鏂欏緱鍑鸿繖鏍蜂竴涓粨璁?浜т笟缁撴瀯鍜岄儴闂ㄧ粨鏋勫皢闅忕潃缁忔祹鐨勫彂灞曡€屼笉鏂彂鐢熷彉鍖栵紝鏀垮簻娑堣垂鍦ㄥ浗姘戠敓浜ф€诲€间腑鐨勬瘮閲嶄笌涓汉娑堣垂鐨勬瘮閲嶃€佸姵鍔ㄥ姏鏀跺叆鍦ㄥ浗姘戠粡娴庝腑鎵€鍗犵殑姣旈噸涓庤储浜ф敹鍏ョ殑姣旈噸鍧囧憟鍙嶆瘮鍙樺姩銆傛棭鍦?935骞达紝璧ゆ澗瑕佸氨鎻愬嚭浜嗕骇涓氬彂灞曠殑“闆佽褰㈡€佺悊璁?rdquo;銆傝繖涓€鐞嗚寮鸿皟锛岃浣夸骇涓氱粨鏋勫浗闄呭寲锛屼竴瀹氳灏嗘湰鍥界殑浜т笟鍙戝睍涓庡浗闄呭競鍦虹揣瀵嗙殑缁撳悎璧锋潵銆?/div>
 
绗簩绔犳蹇电晫瀹氬強鐩稿叧鐞嗚
 
2.1浜т笟缁撴瀯鐞嗚
涓€鍏嬫媺鍏嬪畾鐞嗘墍璋撲骇涓氱粨鏋勶紝鏄寚鍥芥皯缁忔祹鐨勯儴闂ㄧ粨鏋勶紝涔熷氨鏄浗姘戠粡娴庝腑鍚勪骇涓氶儴闂ㄥ唴閮ㄤ箣闂淬€佺浉浜掍箣闂寸殑鏋勬垚銆傜ぞ浼氱敓浜т腑鐨勯儴闂ㄧ粨鏋勬垨浜т笟缁撴瀯鏄湪鐗规畩鍒嗗伐鍙婁竴鑸垎宸ョ殑鍩虹涓婁骇鐢熷苟鍙戝睍璧锋潵鐨勩€傜敓娲诲拰鐢熶骇璧勬枡杩欎袱澶ч儴绫讳箣闂寸殑鍏崇郴鐮旂┒鏄骇涓氱粨鏋勭爺绌剁殑涓昏鍐呭銆備粠閮ㄩ棬杩欎竴瑙掑害鏉ョ湅锛屼富瑕佹槸鐮旂┒鍚勪骇涓氶儴闂ㄧ殑鍐呴儴鍏崇郴浠ュ強杞诲伐涓氥€侀噸宸ヤ笟銆佸啘涓氥€佸晢涓氭湇鍔′笟銆佸缓绛戜笟绛夐儴闂ㄤ箣闂寸殑鍏崇郴銆傚奖鍝嶅拰鍐冲畾涓€涓浗瀹朵骇涓氱粨鏋勭殑鍥犵礌鏈変互涓嬪嚑绉?l)璧勬簮渚涚粰缁撴瀯锛屽寘鎷竴鍥借嚜鐒惰祫婧愮殑璧勬簮瀵熻祴鎯呭喌銆佽祫鏈拰鍔冲姩鍔涚殑鎷ユ湁鐘跺喌鍙婂畠浠箣闂寸殑鐩稿浠锋牸;2)闇€姹傜粨鏋勶紝鍖呮嫭绀句細娑堣垂姘村钩鍜岀粨鏋勩€佹秷璐瑰拰鎶曡祫鐨勬瘮渚嬨€佹姇璧勬按骞充笌缁撴瀯锛屼腑闂撮渶姹備笌鏈€缁堥渶姹傜殑姣斾緥绛?3)鍥介檯缁忔祹鍏崇郴瀵逛骇涓氱粨鏋勭殑褰卞搷锛屽寘鎷紩杩涘鍥芥妧鏈強璧勬湰銆佽繘鍑哄彛璐告槗绛夊洜绱?4)绉戝鎶€鏈洜绱狅紝鍖呮嫭绉戞妧鍒涙柊鐨勮兘鍔涳紝绉戠爺鑳藉姏锛岀鎶€姘村钩锛岀鐮旈€熷害浠ュ強鍒涙柊鏂瑰悜绛夈€備笁娆′骇涓氬垎绫绘柟娉曟槸鏍规嵁绀句細鐢熶骇娲诲姩鍘嗗彶鍙戝睍鐨勯『搴忓浜т笟缁撴瀯鐨勫垝鍒嗐€傜涓€浜т笟鏄寚浜у搧鐩存帴鍙栬嚜鑷劧鐣岀殑閮ㄩ棬锛岀浜屼骇涓氭槸鎸囧鍒濈骇浜у搧杩涜鍐嶅姞宸ョ殑閮ㄩ棬锛岀涓変骇涓氭槸鎸囦负娑堣垂鍜岀敓浜ф彁渚涘悇绉嶆湇鍔$殑閮ㄩ棬銆傝繖鏄笘鐣屼笂杈冧负閫氱敤鐨勪骇涓氱粨鏋勭殑鍒嗙被鏂规硶銆傛牴鎹繖绉嶅垎绫绘柟娉曪紝鍙互鎶婃垜鍥界殑涓夋浜т笟鍒掑垎涓?鍐滀笟锛屽寘鎷啘鏋楃墽娓斾笟涓虹涓€浜т笟;宸ヤ笟鍜屽缓绛戜笟涓虹浜屼骇涓氾紝鍏朵腑宸ヤ笟鍖呮嫭鍒堕€犱笟锛岄噰鎺樹笟锛岀叅姘斻€佺數鍔涖€佹按鐨勭敓浜у拰渚涘簲涓氥€傞櫎涓€銆佷簩浜т笟浠ュ鐨勫叾浠栧悇涓氱О涔嬩负绗笁浜т笟銆傛牴鎹垜鍥藉浗鎯咃紝绗笁浜т笟鍙堝彲鍒嗕负娴侀€氶儴闂ㄥ拰鏈嶅姟閮ㄩ棬杩欎袱澶ч儴闂ㄣ€傝繖鍙堝彲浠ュ垎鎴愬洓涓眰娆?l)娴侀€氶儴闂紝鍖呮嫭鎵瑰彂鍜岄浂鍞锤鏄撱€侀楗笟锛屼氦閫氫粨鍌ㄣ€佽繍杈撳強閭數閫氫俊涓氥€?)涓虹ぞ浼氬叕鍏遍渶瑕佹湇鍔$殑閮ㄩ棬锛屽寘鎷浗瀹舵満鍏炽€佺ぞ浼氬洟浣撱€佹斂鍏氭満鍏充互鍙婅瀵熴€佸啗闃熺瓑銆?)涓烘彁楂樺眳姘戠礌璐ㄥ拰绉戝鏂囧寲姘村钩鏈嶅姟鐨勯儴闂紝鍖呮嫭骞挎挱鐢靛奖鐢佃涓氬強鏂囧寲鑹烘湳銆佹暀鑲诧紝绉戝鐮旂┒涓氾紝浣撹偛銆佸崼鐢熷拰绀句細绂忓埄涓氱瓑銆?)涓虹敓浜у拰鐢熸椿鏈嶅姟鐨勯儴闂紝鍖呮嫭淇濋櫓銆侀噾铻嶄笟锛屾按鍒╃鐞嗐€佸湴璐ㄥ嫎鏌ヤ笟銆佺ぞ浼氭湇鍔′笟銆佹埧鍦颁骇涓氫氦閫氳繍杈撹緟鍔╀笟锛屽啘銆佹灄銆佺墽銆佹笖鏈嶅姟涓氾紝缁煎悎鎶€鏈湇鍔′笟绛夈€備骇涓氶潻鍛藉線寰€鏄敱鍒堕€犱笟鐨勯潻鍛藉紩鍙戠殑锛岃繘鑰屽鑷翠簡涓夊ぇ浜т笟鐨勫叏闈㈡敼闈┿€?/div>
 
绗笁绔?閲戣瀺鍙戝睍涓庝骇涓氱粨鏋勪紭鍖栫浉浜掍綔鐢?.............. 20-24 
    3.1 閲戣瀺鍙戝睍浣滅敤浜庝骇涓氱粨鏋勪紭鍖栫殑鏈虹悊鍒嗘瀽.............. 20-22 
        3.1.1 璧勯噾褰㈡垚鏈哄埗..............21 
        3.1.2 璧勯噾瀵煎悜鏈哄埗.............. 21 
        3.1.3 淇$敤鍌寲鏈哄埗.............. 21-22 
        3.1.4 椋庨櫓闃茶寖涓庤ˉ鍋挎満鍒?............. 22 
    3.2 浜т笟缁撴瀯浼樺寲瀵归噾铻嶅彂灞?............. 22-23 
    3.3 灏忕粨 ..............23-24 
绗洓绔?鏂扮枂浜т笟缁撴瀯鍜岄噾铻嶅彂灞?............. 24-30 
    4.1 鏂扮枂浜т笟缁撴瀯鐜扮姸鍒嗘瀽.............. 24-25 
    4.2 鏂扮枂閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鐜扮姸鍒嗘瀽.............. 25-29 
    4.3 鏈珷灏忕粨 ..............29-30 
绗簲绔?鏂扮枂閲戣瀺鍙戝睍涓庝骇涓氱粨鏋勪紭鍖?............. 30-37 
    5.1 鏂扮枂閲戣瀺鍙戝睍绋嬪害涓庝笁娆′骇涓氬叧绯?............. 30-33 
        5.1.1 鎸囨爣閫夊彇 ..............30 
        5.1.2 ADF妫€楠?..............30-31 
        5.1.3 VAR妯″瀷鍒嗘瀽.............. 31-32 
        5.1.4 鍗忔暣妫€楠?............. 32-33 
        5.1.5 缁忔祹瑙i噴 33 
    5.2 浜т笟缁撴瀯浼樺寲鐜囦笌铻嶈祫鏂瑰紡.............. 33-36 
5.3 灏忕粨 ..............36-37
 
缁撹
 
澶勪簬涓嶅悓缁忔祹鍙戝睍闃舵鐨勭粡娴庝綋鍏锋湁涓嶅悓鐨勮绱犲療璧嬬粨鏋勶紝骞剁敱姝ゅ唴鐢熷喅瀹氫簡涓庡叾鐩搁€傚簲鐨勬渶浼樹骇涓氱粨鏋勩€傛敼闈╁紑鏀惧垵鏈燂紝鐢变簬鏂扮枂閲戣瀺鍏锋湁閲戣瀺绾︽潫鎬ц川锛屽ぇ閲忚捶娆捐鏀垮簻鎸囦护鎬ч厤缃紝娴佸悜鏀垮簻寮虹儓鍋忓ソ鐨勯噸鐐逛骇涓氬拰閮ㄩ棬锛岃繖鏃堕噾铻嶅埗搴﹀畨鎺掍績杩涗簡鏂扮枂浜т笟缁撴瀯鍚堢悊鍖栵紝浣嗛殢鐫€鏂扮枂缁忔祹涓嶆柇鍙戝睍锛屽湪鏂扮枂浜т笟缁撴瀯楂樼骇鍖栬繃绋嬩腑锛屾柊鐤嗙殑閲戣瀺鍙戝睍骞舵病鏈夋樉绀哄嚭瀵圭浜屼骇涓氬湪浜т笟缁撴瀯涓彉鍔ㄧ殑绉瀬淇″彿锛岀浉搴斿湴鏂扮枂宸ヤ笟缁撴瀯骞舵病鏈夋樉绀哄嚭鍒╀簬鏂扮枂閲戣瀺杩涗竴姝ュ彂灞曠殑淇″彿銆傛墍浠ワ紝褰撲笅璋冩暣閲戣瀺鍒跺害瀹夋帓鍜屾柊鐤嗗伐涓氱粨鏋勫挨涓洪噸瑕併€?/div>
鎯宠浠庢牴鏈笂瑙e喅缁忔祹鍙戝睍杩囩▼涓殑璧勯噾鐡堕闂灏卞繀椤讳紭鍖栭噾铻嶅彂灞曠幆澧冿紝杩欐牱鎵嶈兘瀹炵幇缁忔祹鐨勫仴搴枫€佹寔缁€佸揩閫熷彂灞曪紝鍏呭垎鍙戞尌閲戣瀺琛屼笟鍗忎細鍦ㄥ埄鐩婂崗璋冦€佽嚜鎴戠害鏉熴€佹敼鍠勬湇鍔°€佷俊鎭矡閫氱瓑鏂归潰鐨勭嫭鐗逛綔鐢紝鎺ㄥ姩閲戣瀺琛屼笟缁勭粐琛屼笟鑷緥涓庨噾铻嶇洃绠¢儴闂ㄧ殑琛屾斂鐩戠潱涔嬮棿鐨勮壇鑳滀簰鍔紝淇濋殰閲戣瀺娲诲姩鏈夊簭寮€灞曘€傚ぇ鍔涘彂灞曢噾铻嶈緟鍔╀骇涓氾紝鏈夊埄浜庢彁楂橀噾铻嶆湇鍔$殑鏁堢巼鍜岃川閲忋€備竴瑕佸姞蹇斂搴滀富瀵肩殑淇$敤鎷呬繚浣撶郴寤鸿銆傞€氳繃璁剧珛涓撻」鎷呬繚鍩洪噾鏉ユ敮鎸佹湁鍒╀簬浜т笟鍗囩骇鐨勪紒涓氳瀺璧勶紝鐗瑰埆楂樻柊鎶€鏈骇涓氱殑浼佷笟铻嶈祫銆佺鍚堜骇涓氬彂灞曟斂绛栫瓑銆備簩瑕佸姞蹇柊鐤嗗緛淇′綋绯诲缓璁俱€傜敱鏀垮簻鐗靛ご锛屽仛濂界鐞嗐€佽鍒掑拰鍗忚皟锛屾暣鍚堝悇绫讳俊鐢ㄧ鐞嗚祫婧愶紝寤虹珛宸ュ晢銆佺◣鍔°€侀噾铻嶃€佸叕瀹夌瓑閮ㄩ棬鑱旂綉鐨勪紒涓氬拰涓汉寰佷俊浣撶郴锛岀‘淇濊兘澶熷疄鐜拌鐩栧叏鐪併€佷俊鎭畬澶囥€佷娇鐢ㄤ究鎹枫€佽祫婧愬叡浜€傞櫎姝や箣澶栵紝杩涗竴姝ュ畬鍠勫拰鍋ュ叏閲戣瀺涓粙鏈嶅姟浣撶郴锛屼笉鏂姞蹇硶寰嬨€佷細璁°€佽祫淇¤瘎绾с€佽祫浜ц瘎浼般€佸挩璇㈢瓑閲戣瀺杈呭姪浜т笟鐨勫彂灞曪紝骞剁Н鏋佸紩杩涘拰缁勫缓寰嬪笀浜嬪姟鎵€銆佷細璁″笀浜嬪姟鎵€銆佺粡绾拰璇勪及鍏徃銆佽祫浜ц瘎浼颁簨鍔℃墍绛夐噾铻嶄腑浠嬫湇鍔℃満鏋勶紝杩涜€屾彁楂橀噾铻嶄腑浠嬫満鏋勭殑涓撲笟鍖栨湇鍔℃按骞冲拰鑳藉姏锛屼负鏂扮枂缁忔祹鐨勫彂灞曟彁渚涙洿涓哄揩鎹峰拰鏂逛究鐨勬湇鍔★紝淇冭繘浜т笟缁撴瀯鍗囩骇楂樻晥銆侀珮璐ㄣ€?/div>
 
鍙傝€冩枃鐚?/div>
[l1鎴堝痉鍙插瘑鏂?閲戣瀺缁撴瀯涓庨噾铻嶅彂灞昜M].涓婃捣涓夎仈涔﹀簵.1994
[2]鐖卞痉鍗?bull;鑲?缁忔祹鍙戝睍涓殑閲戣瀺娣卞寲[M].涓婃捣涓夎仈涔﹀簵.1988
[3]鏂板笗灏旀牸闆峰か璐у竵閲戣瀺澶ц緸鍏竅M].缁忔祹绉戝鍑虹増绀?2000
[4]灏煎皵鏂竴浼﹁緵鍏?閲戣瀺鍙戝睍涓庣粡娴庡闀縖M].缁忔祹绉戝鍑虹増绀?2001
[5]鍒樹粊浼?鍖哄煙閲戣瀺缁撴瀯鍜岄噾铻嶅彂灞曠悊璁轰笌瀹炶瘉鐮旂┒[M].缁忔祹绠$悊鍑虹増绀?2003
[6]褰叴闊?閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鐨勮矾寰勪緷璧栦笌閲戣瀺鑷敱鍖朳M].涓婃捣涓夎仈涔﹀簵.涓婃捣浜烘皯鍑虹増绀撅紝200
[7]褰叴闊?閲戣瀺瀛﹀師鐞哰M].涓婃捣涓夎仈涔﹀簵.200
[8]濮滄尝鍏嬨€佸紶鍗笢缂栬憲.閲戣瀺鏀归潻涓庨噾铻嶄笟鍙戝睍[M].澶嶆棪澶у鍑虹増绀?1999
[9]寮犲瘜鏄?璧勬湰涓庣粡娴庡闀縖M].缁忔祹绉戝鍑虹増绀?2000
[10]鐜嬪箍璋︼紝缁忔祹鍙戝睍涓噾铻嶇殑璐$尞涓庢晥鐜嘯M].涓浗浜烘皯澶у鍑虹増绀?1997
 

涓撲笟閲戣瀺姣曚笟璁烘枃鑼冩枃绮鹃€夌瘒涔?/h3>
 
1  缁?nbsp;   璁?/div>
 
 1.1  鐮旂┒鑳屾櫙 
鑷?1997 骞磋鏂囪寖鏂囬噾铻嶅嵄鏈轰互鏉ワ紝閲戣瀺鑴嗗急鎬у浜т笟鍗辨満鐨勫奖鍝嶅凡缁忚繙鍘伙紝浣?2008骞磋捣婧愪簬缇庡浗鐨勯噾铻嶅嵄鏈猴紝鍙堣鎴戜滑鎶婄洰鍏夎仛鐒﹀埌閲戣瀺濡備綍瀵瑰疄浣撶粡娴庡強鍏朵骇涓氱殑鑴嗗急鎬т骇鐢熷奖鍝嶇殑鐮旂┒涓婃潵銆傞噾铻嶅嵄鏈哄鑷存垜鍥借澶氫骇涓氬嚭鐜颁紒涓氬仠浜с€佸€掗棴鐨勬儏鍐碉紝瀵规垜鍥界粡娴庡彂灞曞拰灏变笟绋冲畾閮介€犳垚浜嗘瀬澶х殑褰卞搷銆?閲戣瀺琚獕涓虹粡娴庣殑琛€娑诧紝鍏惰嚜韬瓨鍦ㄧ殑鑴嗗急鎬т細蹇€熺殑浼犲鑷崇粡娴庣殑鍚勪釜棰嗗煙锛屽挨鍏朵細瀵归噾铻嶄緷璧栧瀷浜т笟鐨勭ǔ瀹氬彂灞曢€犳垚鏋佸ぇ鐨勪激瀹筹紝鍔犲ぇ浜嗛噾铻嶄緷璧栧瀷浜т笟鐨勮剢寮辨€с€傝€岀敱浜庨噾铻嶄緷璧栧瀷浜т笟寰€寰€鏄敮鏌变骇涓氾紝浠荤敱鍏惰剢寮辩姸鍐电殑鎭跺寲锛屽皢瀵规暣涓浗姘戠粡娴庣殑鍋ュ悍绋冲畾鍙戝睍閫犳垚杈冨ぇ鐨勫啿鍑伙紝瀵圭ぞ浼氱ǔ瀹氥€佸氨涓氬闀块兘浼氶€犳垚杈冨ぇ浼ゅ銆傜編鍥界殑閲戣瀺鍗辨満鐨勭垎鍙戯紝瀵艰嚧浜嗗ぇ閲忛噾铻嶆満鏋勭牬浜у€掗棴銆佹埧鍦颁骇甯傚満娉℃搏鐮寸伃銆佸け涓氱巼澧炲姞銆佸眳姘戠牬浜х瓑鐏鹃毦鎬х殑鍚庢灉锛岃櫧鐒朵腑鍥芥斂搴滃簲瀵瑰強鏃讹紝浣嗘槸涔熷彈鍒颁簡杈冨ぇ鐨勫啿鍑汇€傚眳瀹夋€濆嵄銆侀槻寰潨娓愶紝鍙湁姝g‘涓旀竻鏅板湴璁よ瘑閲戣瀺渚濊禆鍨嬩骇涓氱殑鑴嗗急鎬т骇鐢熺殑鍘熷洜鍙婄敓鎴愭満鐞嗭紝鎵嶈兘澶熶娇鐩稿叧浜т笟鍦ㄩ噾铻嶅嵄鏈虹垎鍙戞椂鍙楀埌杈冨皬浼ゅ锛屼娇缁忔祹鎸佺画銆佸钩绋炽€佸仴搴风殑鍙戝睍涓嬪幓銆?/div>
 
1.2  鐮旂┒鎰忎箟
 
1.2.1 瀛︽湳鎰忎箟 
鍏充簬閲戣瀺渚濊禆鍨嬩骇涓氱殑鑴嗗急鎬х爺绌跺湪鍥藉唴澶栧疄灞炵綍瑙侊紝澶ч儴鍒嗙殑鐮旂┒鏂囩尞閮藉湪鎺㈣閲戣瀺浣撶郴鍙婁骇涓氱珵浜夊姏涔嬮棿鐨勫叧绯汇€傝繖绉嶇爺绌朵粠鏌愮瑙掑害鎺㈢┒浜嗕骇涓氬彂灞曠殑鏂瑰悜锛屼絾鏄嵈娌℃湁鎰忚瘑鍒颁骇涓氬彂灞曞瓨鍦ㄧ殑鍗辨満銆?008 骞寸殑閲戣瀺鍗辨満缁欎簡浜轰滑涓€涓噸瑕佺殑鏁欒锛岄偅灏辨槸閲戣瀺渚濊禆鍨嬩骇涓氫細鍙楀埌铏氭嫙缁忔祹鐨勪弗閲嶅奖鍝嶏紝鏈€缁堝鑷存煇涓€浜т笟鐨勮“璐ワ紝绌剁珶杩欏睘浜庝粈涔堢幇璞″憿锛熷浗鍐呭杩樻病鏈夊姝よ繘琛岀粺涓€鐨勭晫瀹氾紝鑰屽氨绗旇€呰€岃█锛屾垜浠妸杩欎竴鐜拌薄绉颁负浜т笟鐨?ldquo;鑴嗗急鎬?rdquo;銆傝剢寮辨€у浣曟潵琛¢噺锛熶互寰€鐨勭爺绌舵湁鎵€娑夊強锛屼絾涓昏鏄叧浜庨噾铻嶄綋绯荤殑锛岃€屽氨鏌愪竴閲戣瀺渚濊禆鍨嬩骇涓氱殑鑴嗗急鎬х殑琛¢噺锛屽浗鍐呭鏂囩尞鐮旂┒杩樼浉瀵瑰尞涔忥紝鑰岀幇瀹炰簾闇€瀵归噾铻嶄緷璧栧瀷浜т笟鐨勮剢寮辨€у仛鍑鸿瘎鍒ゃ€傚洜姝ゆ湰鐮旂┒灏变粠琛¢噺浜т笟鍙戝睍鐨勪紬澶氭寚鏍囦腑鍒╃敤鍥犲瓙鍒嗘瀽娉曡繘琛岀患鍚堣祴浜堟潈閲嶏紝鏈€鍚庢眰鍙栦竴涓患鍚堟寚鏍囨潵琛¢噺鏌愪竴閲戣瀺渚濊禆鍨嬩骇涓氱殑鑴嗗急鎬с€?鍙﹀灏卞浣曠晫瀹氭煇涓€浜т笟灞炰簬閲戣瀺渚濊禆鍨嬩骇涓氾紝浠ュ線鐮旂┒涔熺浉瀵瑰尞涔忥紝鏈爺绌舵彁鍑虹敤鐩稿叧鎸囨爣鏉ユ祴閲忥紝鍗冲弽鏄犳煇涓€浜т笟鍙戝睍鐨勭患鍚堟寚鏍囧€兼尝鍔ㄤ笌閲戣瀺缁煎悎鎸囨爣鍊兼尝鍔ㄧ殑鐩稿叧鎬ф潵娴嬪害锛屽苟瀹氫箟楂樺害鐩稿叧浜т笟涓洪噾铻嶄緷璧栧瀷浜т笟锛屽洜姝よ繖涓€鏂规硶鍙堝叿鏈変竴瀹氱殑瀛︽湳浠峰€笺€傞€氳繃杩欑鏂规硶锛屾垜浠瓫閫夊嚭閲戣瀺渚濊禆鍨嬩骇涓氾紝骞剁爺绌跺叾鑴嗗急鎬т笌閲戣瀺鍙戝睍涔嬮棿鐨勫叧绯伙紝鑰岃繖涓€鍏崇郴鎭版槸鐜版湁鐮旂┒鐨勭┖鐧界偣銆傜患涓婃墍杩帮紝鏈棰樼殑鐮旂┒鍏锋湁閲嶈鐨勫鏈环鍊笺€?/div>
 
1.2.2 鐜板疄鎰忎箟 
閲戣瀺鍗辨満缁欎汉浠甫鏉ョ殑闃村奖杩樻湭琚畬鍏ㄦ姽鍘讳箣鍓嶏紝鎴戜滑闈炲父鍏冲績鏌愪竴浜т笟鍙戝睍鐨勭ǔ瀹氭€э紝灏ゅ叾鏄噾铻嶄緷璧栧瀷浜т笟锛屽洜涓哄畠寰€寰€鍦ㄥ浗姘戠粡娴庝腑鍗犳嵁闈炲父閲嶈鐨勪綅缃紝瀵瑰鍔犲氨涓氬拰鎻愬崌鍥藉鏁翠綋缁忔祹绔炰簤鍔涚殑浣滅敤閮芥樉寰楅潪甯哥獊鍑恒€傚鏋滆繖绫讳骇涓氬湪鐖嗗彂閲戣瀺鍗辨満鐨勮繃绋嬩腑鍙楀埌涓ラ噸鐨勫垱浼わ紝閭d箞杩欑浜т笟琛拌触瀵艰嚧鐨勫け涓氱巼灏嗕細鏄捐憲鎻愬崌锛屽け涓氱巼濡傛灉澶辨帶灏嗕細寮曡嚧绀句細涓嶇ǔ瀹氬強鍏朵粬璇稿闂锛屽洜姝ゆ斂绛栧埗瀹氳€呴渶鎰忚瘑鍒伴噾铻嶄緷璧栧瀷浜т笟鐨勮剢寮辨€т笌鍚︾殑閲嶈鎬с€傛斂绛栧埗瀹氳€呭彧鏈夊湪鐭ラ亾鍏惰剢寮辨€х姸鎬佷笅锛屾墠鍙兘鍒跺畾鍑鸿涔嬫湁鏁堢殑鑹ソ瀵圭瓥鏉ュ珐鍥鸿繖绉嶄骇涓氬湪閲戣瀺娉㈠姩杩囩▼涓殑绋冲畾鎬э紝浣垮叾鑳藉椤哄埄鐨勫彂灞曚笅鍘汇€傚綋鐒舵斂绛栧埗瀹氳€呴潬鐫€浜т笟鐨?ldquo;鑴嗗急鎬?rdquo;杩欎竴鎸囨爣鏉ュ埗瀹氬嚭鍚堢悊鐨勪骇涓氬彂灞曞绛栬繕鏄笉澶熺殑锛屼粬浠繕闇€瑕佺煡閬撲骇涓氱殑“鑴嗗急鎬?rdquo;涓庨偅浜涘洜绱犳湁鍏筹紝鍙湁鍦ㄥ厖鍒嗕簡瑙d骇涓氱殑鑴嗗急鎬у強鍏跺奖鍝嶅洜绱犵殑鍓嶆彁涓嬶紝鐩稿叧鏀跨瓥鍒跺畾鑰呮墠鑳藉瀹炴柦鏀跨瓥鏉ュ奖鍝嶆煇绉嶄骇涓氬彂灞曠殑璐ㄩ噺銆傝€岃繖浜涚瓟妗堝皢鍦ㄦ湰鐮旂┒涓緱浠ュ睍鐜帮紝鍥犳鏈爺绌跺悓鏍峰叿鏈夐噸瑕佺殑鐜板疄鎰忎箟銆?/div>
 
2 鏂囩尞缁艰堪
 
鑴嗗急鎬ф槸鎵€鏈変釜浣撳拰绯荤粺閮藉瓨鍦ㄧ殑鏈川鐗瑰緛銆傜洰鍓嶏紝鍏充簬鑴嗗急鎬ч棶棰樼殑鐮旂┒宸茬粡寤朵几鍒扮粡娴庣郴缁熴€佷紒涓氱郴缁熴€佺綉缁滅郴缁熴€佺敓鎬佺郴缁熴€佸尰瀛︾瓑澶氱瀛︾棰嗗煙锛屽苟鍙栧緱浜嗕竴瀹氱殑鎴愭灉銆備絾鏄浜庝骇涓氳剢寮辨€х殑鐮旂┒鐩稿杈冨皯锛屼富瑕侀泦涓湪閲戣瀺琛屼笟銆傚洜姝わ紝瀵瑰浗鍐呭鍏充簬閲戣瀺鑴嗗急鎬х殑鐮旂┒鎴愭灉杩涜鍥為【鍜屽垎鏋愶紝灏嗗鏈枃鐨勭爺绌惰捣鍒板緢濂界殑鍊熼壌浣滅敤銆?/div>
 
2.1 鍥藉鐮旂┒鐜扮姸 
鍏充簬閲戣瀺鑴嗗急鎬х殑鐮旂┒涓昏闆嗕腑浜庝袱涓柟闈細涓€鏂归潰鏄閲戣瀺鑴嗗急鎬ф垚鍥犵殑鍒嗘瀽锛屽嵆“涓轰粈涔?rdquo;鐨勯棶棰橈紱鍙︿竴鏂归潰鏄噾铻嶈剢寮辨€х殑琛¢噺锛屽嵆“鏄粈涔?rdquo;鐨勯棶棰樸€?/div>
 
2.1.1 鍏充簬閲戣瀺鑴嗗急鎬х敓鎴愭満鐞?/div>
 
鈶?浠庤揣甯佽搴?nbsp;
Houben 璁や负锛氶噾铻嶈捣婧愪簬璐у竵鐨勪骇鐢燂紝鍦ㄦ彁鍗囧拰鎵╁睍浜嗚揣甯佸姛鑳界殑鍚屾椂锛岄噾铻嶇殑鑴嗗急鎬т篃浜х敓浜嗐€備笉鍍忚揣甯佺殑鏈€缁堟敮浠樺姛鑳藉湪鍟嗗搧鏈嶅姟璐告槗涓殑浣撶幇锛岄噾铻嶆槸涓€绉嶄氦鏄撴壙璇猴紝鍖呭惈浜嗕笉纭畾鎬с€傚洜姝わ紝閲戣瀺鍦ㄨ幏寰楁綔鍦ㄦ敹鐩婄殑鍚屾椂锛屼篃钑村惈浜嗘綔鍦ㄧ殑鎴愭湰銆傝€岃繖绉嶆垚鏈氨鏄唴鍦ㄤ笉纭畾鎬э紝杩欑涓嶇‘瀹氭€у嵆鏄竴绉嶉闄╋紝閲戣瀺鐨勮剢寮辨€х敱姝や骇鐢熴€?/div>
 
鈶?浠庨噾铻嶇壒娈婂睘鎬ц搴?nbsp;
Diamond and Dybvig 鎻愬嚭鐨勯摱琛屾尋鍏戞ā鍨?绠€绉?DD 妯″瀷)鎸囧嚭浜嗛摱琛岃剢寮辨€х殑鏍规簮:閾惰鐨勯潪娴佸姩鎬ц祫浜у悜娴佸姩鎬ц礋鍊虹殑杞崲鐨勮繃绋嬩腑瀛樺湪缂洪櫡锛屽湪鎻愪緵娴佸姩鎬ф湇鍔$殑杩囩▼涓紝瀹规槗寮曞彂娴佸姩鎬ф灟绔€傜敱浜庤礋鍊哄鏄煭鏈熺殑銆侀殢鏃跺彲琚祹鍥炵殑锛岃€岃祫浜ф槸闈炴祦鍔ㄦ€х殑锛屽洜姝ゅ湪寮曞彂淇″績鍗辨満鐨勬椂鍊欙紝瀹规槗瀵艰嚧閾惰鎸ゅ厬浜嬩欢鐨勫彂鐢熴€侭andt and Hartmann 璁や负锛岄噾铻嶉儴闂ㄧ殑涓変釜鐗规€у喅瀹氫簡鍏舵洿鏄撲簬闄峰叆鍗辨満銆備竴鏄摱琛岃祫浜ц礋鍊虹粨鏋勭殑鐗规€э紱浜屾槸鐢遍摱琛岄棿甯傚満鍜屾敮浠樻竻绠楃郴缁熸墍鏋勬垚鐨勫鏉傜綉缁滅殑鐗规€э紱涓夋槸閲戣瀺鍚堢害涓墍鍖呭惈鐨勪俊鎭拰淇$敤鐨勭壒鎬с€侶ouben銆丼hinasia and Kake鎸囧嚭锛岄噾铻嶅湪鍙戝睍涓〃鐜板嚭鐨勫洓涓秼鍔匡紝浣块噾铻嶈涓氬尯鍒簬缁忔祹涓殑鍏朵粬琛屼笟锛屽湪鍙戝睍涓洿鍔犺剢寮便€傝繖鍥涗釜鏄捐憲鐨勮秼鍔挎槸:绗竴锛岀浉瀵逛簬瀹炰綋缁忔祹鑰岃█锛岄噾铻嶄綋绯荤殑鎵╁紶閫熷害杩囧揩锛涚浜岋紝閲戣瀺娣卞寲杩囩▼涓紝浼撮殢鐫€鐨勮櫄鎷熻祫浜х殑澧炲姞锛屾潬鏉嗘晥搴斿澶э紱绗笁锛岀敱浜庤法鍥界晫鍜岃法浜т笟骞惰喘鐨勫鍔狅紝閲戣瀺娉㈠姩鐨勫奖鍝嶈繙澶т簬鍓嶏紱绗洓锛岄噾铻嶄綋绯绘剤鍔犲鏉傦紝灏ゅ叾鍦ㄩ噾铻嶆椿鍔ㄥ強浜у搧鐨勫鏍峰寲鏂归潰銆?/div>
 
3 浜т笟鑴嗗急鎬х悊璁哄熀纭€ ....................23-27 
    3.1 浜т笟鑴嗗急鎬ф蹇电晫瀹?.................. 23-24 
    3.2 浜т笟鑴嗗急鎬у唴娑?...................24 
    3.3 浜т笟鑴嗗急鎬т笌浜т笟鍗辨満................... 24-25 
    3.4 閲戣瀺渚濊禆鍨嬩骇涓氱殑鑴嗗急鎬?.................. 25-27 
4 鎴戝浗閲戣瀺渚濊禆鍨嬩骇涓氱殑绛涢€?.................. 27-39 
    4.1 閲戣瀺渚濊禆鍨嬩骇涓氱瓫閫夋€濊矾 ...................27 
    4.2 鍏稿瀷鐩稿叧鍒嗘瀽................... 27-29 
        4.2.1 鍏稿瀷鐩稿叧鍒嗘瀽鐨勫熀鏈€濇兂................... 27-28 
        4.2.2 鍏稿瀷鐩稿叧鍒嗘瀽鐨勬暟瀛︽弿杩?...................28-29 
    4.3 鎸囨爣鐨勬瀯寤?...................29-30 
    4.4 浜т笟鍙戝睍鎸囨爣鍊兼尝鍔ㄤ笌閲戣瀺................... 30-33 
        4.4.1 瀹氫箟鍙橀噺缁勫強鏁版嵁璇存槑................... 30 
        4.4.2 鍩轰簬鍏稿瀷鐩稿叧鍒嗘瀽鐨勭浉鍏虫€ф祴绠?.................. 30-33 
    4.5 閲戣瀺渚濊禆鍨嬩骇涓氱殑绛涢€?..................33-35 
    4.6 鎴戝浗閲戣瀺渚濊禆鍨嬩骇涓氳剢寮辨€х殑琛ㄧ幇................... 35-36 
    4.7 鏈珷灏忕粨 ...................36-39 
5 閲戣瀺浣撶郴鑴嗗急鎬ф垚鍥犲垎鏋?.................. 39-47 
    5.1 鎴戝浗閲戣瀺浣撶郴鑴嗗急鎬ф祴搴︽寚鏍囦綋绯?.................. 39-42 
    5.2 鎴戝浗閲戣瀺浣撶郴鑴嗗急鎬х殑瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽................... 42-44 
        5.2.1 鏍锋湰鍜岃閲忔ā鍨嬬殑閫夋嫨................... 42 
        5.2.2 鎴戝浗閲戣瀺浣撶郴鑴嗗急鎬х殑瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽................... 42-44 
    5.3 瀹炶瘉缁撴灉鍒嗘瀽................... 44-45 
5.4 鏈珷灏忕粨................... 45-47
 
缁撹
 
閲戣瀺鍗辨満缁欎汉浠甫鏉ョ殑闃村奖杩樻湭琚畬鍏ㄦ姽鍘伙紝鎴戜滑闈炲父鍏冲績鏌愪竴浜т笟鍙戝睍鐨勭ǔ瀹氭€э紝灏ゅ叾鏄噾铻嶄緷璧栧瀷浜т笟鐨勫彂灞曪紝鍥犱负瀹冨線寰€鍦ㄥ浗姘戠粡娴庝腑鍗犳嵁闈炲父閲嶈鐨勪綅缃紝瀵瑰姞蹇储瀵岀Н绱拰鎻愬崌鍥藉鏁翠綋缁忔祹绔炰簤鍔涚殑浣滅敤閮介潪甯哥獊鍑恒€傚洜姝わ紝閲戣瀺渚濊禆鍨嬩骇涓氬彂灞曟槸鍚︾ǔ鍋ラ潪甯稿€煎緱鎴戜滑鍏虫敞銆傜劧鑰岄噾铻嶄緷璧栧瀷浜т笟鍙戝睍鏄惁绋冲仴锛屼笉浠呭彈鑷韩鍥犵礌鐨勫奖鍝嶏紝鑰屼笖鏋佹槗鍙楀埌瀹忚缁忔祹娉㈠姩鍙婇噾铻嶄綋绯昏剢寮辨€х殑褰卞搷銆傛湰鏂囧湪鍥為【澶ч噺鍥藉唴澶栧叧浜庤剢寮辨€х爺绌舵枃鐚殑鍩虹涓婏紝瀵逛骇涓氳剢寮辨€х殑姒傚康浣滀簡鍏蜂綋鐨勯槓杩帮紝绛涢€夊嚭浜嗛噾铻嶄緷璧栧瀷浜т笟銆傚苟鍒╃敤鍥犲瓙鍒嗘瀽瀵归噾铻嶄緷璧栧瀷浜т笟鐨勮剢寮辨寚鏁拌繘琛屼簡娴嬬畻锛屽鑴嗗急鎬х殑鎴愬洜杩涜浜嗗垎鏋愩€傛湰鏂囩殑涓昏宸ヤ綔鍙婄粨璁烘湁浠ヤ笅鍑犳柟闈細 
鈶?瀵逛骇涓氳剢寮辨€ц繘琛屼簡鐣屽畾銆備骇涓氳剢寮辨€ф寚鐨勫氨鏄骇涓氱殑鑴嗗急鎬х姸鎬侊紝鎸囦骇涓氱粍缁囩敱浜庡悇绉嶅師鍥犺€屽鑷寸殑椋庨櫓绉仛锛屾墍澶勭殑涓€绉嶅澶栭儴鍐插嚮杈冧负鏁忔劅鑰屾槗浜庡彂鐢熷嵄鏈虹殑涓嶇ǔ瀹氱姸鎬併€傛棦鍖呭惈浜嗕骇涓氱粍缁囧唴鍦ㄧ殑鑴嗗急灞炴€э紝涔熷寘鍚簡瀹忚缁忔祹鏀跨瓥鎵€寮曞彂鐨勪笉绋冲畾鎬ц鍥狅紝浠ュ強涓嶅綋鐨勫嵄鏈烘晳鍔╁埗搴︽墍瀵艰嚧鐨勪笉绋冲畾鎬с€?nbsp;
鈶?瀵归噾铻嶄緷璧栧瀷浜т笟杩涜浜嗙瓫閫夈€傚皢浜т笟鍙戝睍缁煎悎鎸囨爣鍊兼尝鍔ㄥ拰閲戣瀺缁煎悎鎸囨爣鍊肩殑娉㈠姩瀛樺湪楂樺害鐩稿叧鎬х殑浜т笟瀹氫箟涓洪噾铻嶄緷璧栧瀷浜т笟锛涙瀯寤轰簡浜т笟鍙戝睍缁煎悎鎸囨爣鍜岄噾铻嶇患鍚堟寚鏍囷紝骞跺埄鐢ㄥ吀鍨嬬浉鍏冲垎鏋愭祴绠楀悇涓涓氳繖涓や釜缁煎悎鎸囨爣鍊肩殑鐩稿叧鎬э紝绛涢€夊嚭浜嗗崄浜斾釜閲戣瀺渚濊禆鍨嬩骇涓氥€?nbsp;
鈶?瀵规垜鍥介噾铻嶄綋绯昏剢寮辨€ф垚鍥犺繘琛屼簡瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽銆傛瀯寤轰簡鎴戝浗閲戣瀺浣撶郴鑴嗗急鎬ц瘎娴嬫寚鏍囦綋绯伙紝鍖呮嫭浜斾釜瀹忚缁忔祹鎸囨爣鍜屼簲涓噾铻嶇姸鍐垫寚鏍囥€傜劧鍚庡埄鐢?Logistic妯″瀷鍜?Granger 鍥犳灉鍏崇郴妫€楠岋紝瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽浜嗗悇涓寚鏍囧鎴戝浗閲戣瀺浣撶郴鑴嗗急鎬х殑鐩稿叧鎬э紝鏈€缁堥€夋嫨鍑哄鎴戝浗閲戣瀺浣撶郴鑴嗗急鎬ф湁杈冨ぇ褰卞搷鐨勬寚鏍囨湁锛欸DP 澧為暱鐜囥€侀€氳揣鑶ㄨ儉鐜囥€佽储鏀胯丹瀛?GDP銆佽捶瀛樻瘮銆丮2/GDP銆佸悕涔夊埄鐜囥€佷笉鑹捶娆剧巼銆?nbsp;
鈶?鍊熼壌鍥藉唴澶栧疄璇佺爺绌舵柟娉曪紝鏋勫缓浜嗕竴濂楀寘鎷畯瑙傚彉閲忋€侀噾铻嶅彉閲忋€佷骇涓氬彉閲忎笁涓柟闈㈠奖鍝嶅洜绱犵殑閲戣瀺渚濊禆鍨嬩骇涓氳剢寮辨€ф寚鏍囪瘎浠蜂綋绯汇€?nbsp;
鈶?鍒╃敤鍥犲瓙鍒嗘瀽锛屾祴绠椾簡鎴戝浗 15 涓噾铻嶄緷璧栧瀷浜т笟鑴嗗急鎬ф寚鏁般€傞€氳繃鍒嗘瀽浜т笟鑴嗗急鎬ф寚鏁扮殑娉㈠姩瓒嬪娍锛屽緱鍑虹粨璁猴細褰卞搷鎴戝浗閲戣瀺渚濊禆鍨嬩骇涓氳剢寮辨€ф寚鏁扮殑鎸囨爣涓昏鏈夛細鍥哄畾璧勪骇鎶曡祫/GDP銆佽储鏀胯丹瀛?GDP銆佽捶瀛樻瘮銆佷笉鑹捶娆剧巼銆佽祫浜у埄娑︾巼銆佽祫浜ц礋鍊虹巼銆佽垂鐢ㄦ敹鐩婃瘮鐜囥€?nbsp;
鈶?鍒嗘瀽浜嗛噾铻嶄笟鍙戝睍娉㈠姩鎯呭喌瀵归噾铻嶄緷璧栧瀷浜т笟鑴嗗急鎬ф寚鏍囨尝鍔ㄧ殑褰卞搷锛屽緱鍑虹粨璁猴細閲戣瀺浣撶郴鐨勭ǔ鍋ュ浜庨噾铻嶄緷璧栧瀷浜т笟鐨勭ǔ鍋ヨ捣鍒伴潪甯搁噸瑕佺殑浣滅敤銆?/div>
 
鍙傝€冩枃鐚?nbsp;
1闄堝崕涓?2010.娴欐睙鍐滄潙灞呮皯娑堣垂涓庢敹鍏ュ叧绯诲疄璇佺爺绌禰D].涓婃捣锛氫笂娴峰笀鑼冨ぇ瀛? 
2鑼冩椽娉? 2004.鍥芥湁鍟嗕笟閾惰浣撶郴鑴嗗急鎬х殑瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽鍜屾斂绛栧缓璁甗J].閲戣瀺璁哄潧,(7). 
3鍥介檯璐у竵鍩洪噾缁勭粐.2001.閲戣瀺浣撶郴绋冲畾鎬х殑瀹忚瀹℃厧鎸囨爣[M].鍖椾含:涓浗閲戣瀺鍑虹増绀? 
4鍥介檯璐у竵鍩洪噾缁勭粐.2002.閲戣瀺閲戣瀺绋冲仴鎸囨爣缂栧埗鎸囧崡[M].鍖椾含:涓浗閲戣瀺鍑虹増绀? 
5鍥藉缁熻灞€.2000-2010.涓浗缁熻骞撮壌[M].鍖椾含:涓浗缁熻鍑虹増绀? 
6闊╀繆.2000.閾惰浣撶郴绋冲畾鎬х爺绌禰M].鍖椾含:涓浗閲戣瀺鍑虹増绀? 
7闊╀繆.2000.閾惰浣撶郴绋冲畾鐮旂┒[M].鍖椾含锛氫腑鍥介噾铻嶅嚭鐗堢ぞ. 
8鑳$鍏?1998.涓滀簹鐨勯摱琛屼綋绯讳笌閲戣瀺鍗辨満[J].鍥介檯缁忔祹璇勮,(5):13-17. 
9榛勯噾鑰?2001.璁洪噾铻嶈剢寮辨€J].閲戣瀺鐮旂┒,(3). 
10榛勯噾鑰?2002.閲戣瀺鑷敱鍖栦笌閲戣瀺鑴嗗急鎬M].鍖椾含:涓浗鍩庡競鍑虹増绀?
 

涓撲笟閲戣瀺姣曚笟璁烘枃鑼冩枃绮鹃€夌瘒鍗?/h3>
 
绗竴绔?瀵?璁?/div>
 
1.1 鐮旂┒鑳屾櫙鍙婃剰涔?/div>
褰撳墠锛屽叏鐞冭寖鍥村唴鍑虹幇娴佸姩鎬ц繃鍓╁凡鏄笉浜夌殑浜嬪疄锛屽鎴戝浗缁忔祹澧為暱銆佷环鏍肩ǔ瀹氬拰閲戣瀺鍙戝睍鐨勫奖鍝嶈秺鏉ヨ秺澶э紝鏀垮簻瀹忚璋冩帶鐨勫叕淇″姏鍜屾湁鏁堟€ч潰涓寸潃鏂版寫鎴樸€傛祦鍔ㄦ€ц繃鍓╀笉鏄竴鍥借寖鍥村唴鐨勭幇璞★紝鑰屾槸涓栫晫鎬х殑闂銆傞殢鐫€涓浗涓嶆柇铻嶅叆涓栫晫缁忔祹澶у惊鐜紝鎴愪负鍏锋湁鍚稿紩鍔涚殑鏂板叴缁忔祹浣擄紝鍏ㄧ悆鍏呰鐨勬祦鍔ㄦ€т篃閫氳繃鍚勭鏂瑰紡澶ч噺娴佸叆涓浗銆傜洰鍓嶏紝鎴戝浗鎬讳綋涓婇潰涓存棩鐩婂澶х殑娴佸姩鎬ц繃鍓╁帇鍔涳紝涓昏琛ㄧ幇鍦細璐у竵鎬婚噺鍦ㄥぎ琛屽鍐茶皟鎺ф帾鏂戒綔鐢ㄤ笅浠嶄繚鎸佽緝蹇闀匡紱M2 鍗?GDP 鐨勬瘮閲嶄笉鏂彁楂橈紱澶栨眹鍌ㄥ蹇€熸攢鍗囷紝鎬婚噺浣嶅眳鍏ㄧ悆涔嬮锛涙垜鍥介噾铻嶆満鏋?ldquo;瀛樺樊”瑙勬ā涓嶆柇鎵╁ぇ锛岃捶瀛樻瘮閫愬勾涓嬮檷銆傛祦鍔ㄦ€у閲戣瀺璧勪骇浠锋牸鍏锋湁閲嶈鐨勫奖鍝嶃€備互鑲$エ浠锋牸涓轰緥锛屾祦鍔ㄦ€ф墿寮犻€氬父浼氭帹鍔ㄨ偂绁ㄤ环鏍肩殑涓婃定锛屼絾娴佸姩鎬ф墿寮犲彧鏄负鑲$エ浠锋牸涓婃定鎻愪緵浜嗗彲鑳芥€э紝瀹冨苟闈炲喅瀹氳偂浠蜂笂娑ㄧ殑鍐冲畾鍥犵礌鍜屽厖鍒嗘潯浠躲€傜悊璁哄垎鏋愯〃鏄庯紝娴佸姩鎬т笌鑲$エ浠锋牸涔嬮棿鐨勫叧绯绘槸鍗佸垎澶嶆潅鐨勩€備笘鐣屼笂涓€浜涘浗瀹跺拰鍦板尯鐨勫彂灞曠粡鍘嗘樉绀猴紝娴佸姩鎬ф墿寮犲鍖呮嫭鑲$エ浠锋牸鍦ㄥ唴鐨勮祫浜т环鏍肩殑褰卞搷寰€寰€澶т簬瀵逛竴鑸墿浠锋按骞崇殑褰卞搷銆?/div>
娴佸姩鎬ф墿寮狅紝鑲′环璧伴珮鏄祦鍔ㄦ€т笌鑲′环涔嬮棿鐨勪竴鑸叧绯汇€傛牴鎹祫浜х粍鍚堢悊璁猴紝娴佸姩鎬ф墿寮犳椂锛屾姇璧勮€呮寔鏈夌殑璐у竵鏁伴噺澧炲姞锛屼娇鍏跺畨鍏ㄨ祫浜ф瘮渚嬭繃楂橈紝涓虹淮鎸佹棦鏈夌殑璧勪骇缁勫悎缁撴瀯锛屾姇璧勮€呭皢澧炲姞椋庨櫓璧勪骇鎶曡祫銆傚綋椋庨櫓璧勪骇渚涚粰鏁伴噺涓嶈兘闅忓嵆澧炲姞鏃讹紝椋庨櫓璧勪骇浠锋牸浼氫笂鍗囥€傚洜姝わ紝娴佸姩鎬ф墿寮犲拰鑲′环鍙樺姩涔嬮棿鐞嗚涓婇€氬父鍛堢幇鍑烘鍚戝叧绯汇€傚叿浣撹€岃█锛屽叾涓湁涓ょ偣闇€瑕佹敞鎰忋€備竴鏄偂浠峰彉鍔ㄤ笌娴佸姩鎬ф墿寮犵殑鏃舵湡闀跨煭銆佹墿寮犵殑鍙鏈熸€ф湁鍏炽€傚氨鐭湡鑰岃█锛屾祦鍔ㄦ€ф墿寮犱富瑕佽〃鐜颁负鑲′环绛夎祫浜т环鏍肩殑涓婃定锛岀敋鑷充細鍑虹幇鑲′环瀵规祦鍔ㄦ€ф墿寮犵殑“瓒呰皟”鐜拌薄銆傛澶栵紝鍦ㄦ湁鏁堝競鍦轰笂锛岃棰勬湡鍒扮殑娴佸姩鎬ф墿寮犲凡缁忓弽鏄犲湪褰撳墠鐨勮偂浠蜂腑锛屽洜鑰岋紝鍙湁鏈鏈熷埌鐨勬祦鍔ㄦ€у鍔犳墠浼氬鑲′环浜х敓褰卞搷銆備簩鏄偂浠峰彉鍔ㄤ笌娴佸姩鎬х殑鍐呭湪缁撴瀯鏈夊叧銆傚湪M0 鍜?M1 灞傞潰涓婏紝涓€鏂归潰锛岀幇閲戝拰娲绘湡瀛樻涓殑浜ゆ槗鎬ч渶姹備富瑕佺敤浜庣淮鎸佹棩甯哥殑鐢熶骇鐢熸椿鎵€闇€锛屽叿鏈夎緝寮哄垰鎬э紝杩欓儴鍒嗘瀯鎴愰€氬父涓庤偂浠峰叧绯诲井寮憋紱鑰屽彟涓€鏂归潰锛孧0 鍜?M1 澧為噺涓秴杩囨棩甯告墍闇€鐨勮繃鍓╂祦鍔ㄦ€ф槸娴佸叆鑲″競璧勯噾鐨勯噸瑕佹潵婧愶紝鍥犺€屼細瀵硅偂浠峰彉鍔ㄤ骇鐢熷奖鍝嶃€傚湪 M2 灞傞潰涓婏紝鍌ㄨ搫瀛樻鐨勫鍔犱负鑲′环涓婃定鎻愪緵浜嗘綔鍦ㄧ殑娴佸姩鎬ф敮鎸侊紝鍦ㄨ偂甯傛姇璧勭幆澧冮€傚疁鐨勬儏鍐典笅锛屽氨浼氬舰鎴?ldquo;鍌ㄨ搫鎼”锛屾祦鍔ㄦ€т粠閾惰浣撶郴杩涘叆璇佸埜甯傚満锛屾帹鍔ㄨ偂浠疯蛋楂樸€?/div>
娴佸姩鎬ф墿寮犲彧鏄负鑲′环涓婃定鎻愪緵浜嗗彲鑳芥€э紝瀹冨苟闈炶偂浠蜂笂娑ㄧ殑鍐冲畾鍥犵礌鍜屽厖鍒嗘潯浠讹紝涓よ€呬箣闂翠笉瀛樺湪蹇呯劧鑱旂郴銆傝繖涔熸槸鑲′环閫氬父骞朵笉浣滀负璐у竵鏀跨瓥璋冩帶瀵硅薄鐨勫師鍥犱箣涓€銆傞櫎浜嗘祦鍔ㄦ€т箣澶栵紝鑲′环鍙樺姩杩樺彈涓婂競鍏徃鐘跺喌銆佽瘉鍒稿競鍦虹幆澧冦€佹姇璧勮€呭績鐞嗙瓑璇稿鍥犵礌褰卞搷锛屽洜姝ゆ祦鍔ㄦ€ф墿寮犳湭蹇呬細寮曡捣鑲′环涓婃定銆傚€樿嫢鑲″競鎶曡祫鐜涓嶄匠锛岃繃鍓╃殑娴佸姩鎬у彲鑳藉彧婊炲瓨浜庨摱琛屼綋绯讳腑锛岃〃鐜颁负閾惰瀛樻鐨勫鍔犮€傚湪娴佸姩鎬ф墿寮犺儗鏅笅锛屽娌℃湁鐩稿簲鐨勬姇璧勬笭閬撳垎娴侊紝瀹规槗瀵艰嚧鑲′环蹇€熶笂娑紝浜х敓璧勪骇娉℃搏銆傚弽涔嬶紝濡傛灉鏈夊鏍峰寲鐨勯噾铻嶄骇鍝侊紝灏辫兘澶熷惛绾宠繃澶氱殑娴佸姩鎬э紝鍑忕紦鑲′环涓婃定骞呭害銆傝€屽鏋滄祦鍔ㄦ€ф墿寮犳槸涓€娆℃€х殑锛岄偅涔堝湪鐭湡鎴栧皢瀵硅偂浠锋湁鎶崌鏁堝簲锛屼絾闅句互瀵硅偂浠峰舰鎴愰暱鏈熸敮鎾戙€傝偂甯傜殑鎸佺画璧伴珮闇€瑕佹祦鍔ㄦ€х殑鎸佺画鎵╁紶銆傛柊鍏村浗瀹剁粡娴庨珮閫熷闀夸竴娈垫椂闂村悗锛屼竴鑸細闈复甯佸€煎崌鍊肩殑棰勬湡锛屽鍥介檯璧勬湰浜х敓鍚稿紩鍔涖€傞鏈熸湰甯佸崌鍊肩殑鍥介檯璧勬湰娴佸叆鍥藉唴鍚庯紝閫氬父浼氶€夋嫨鑲″競浣滀负鏍栬韩鍦帮紝浠庤€屾帹鍔ㄥ浗鍐呰偂甯備笉鏂笂鍗囥€傚熀浜庝互涓婂垎鏋愶紝鍙娴佸姩鎬т笌鑲$エ浠锋牸涔嬮棿鐨勫叧绯绘瀬鍏跺鏉傜殑銆傛祦鍔ㄦ€у彉鍔ㄤ笌鎴戝浗鑲$エ浠锋牸涔嬮棿鍛堢幇鎬庢牱鐨勫叧绯伙紵娴佸姩鎬у湪鎴戝浗杩戝勾鏉ヨ偂甯備笂娑ㄤ腑璧峰埌浜嗘€庢牱鐨勪綔鐢紵杩欎簺闂鍊煎緱娣卞叆鐮旂┒銆傛湰鏂囧皢浠庡疄璇佺殑瑙掑害鍑哄彂锛屽杩欎釜闂杩涜闃愯堪鍜屽垎鏋愩€?/div>
 
1.2 鍥藉唴澶栫爺绌舵枃鐚患杩?/div>
 
1.2.1 鐞嗚鏂囩尞
浼犵粺鐨勫嚡鎭╂柉瀛︽淳鍜岃揣甯佷富涔夊潎璁や负璐у竵渚涘簲閲忕殑鍙樺寲浼氬奖鍝嶈祫浜т环鏍笺€備粬浠涓轰汉浠渶鍒濇墍鎷ユ湁鐨勮祫浜х粨鏋勬槸鍧囪 鐨?璐у竵渚涘簲閲忓彂鐢熺殑鍙樺寲浼氭墦鐮磋繖绉嶈祫浜х粨鏋?姝ゆ椂锛屼汉浠氨浼氳皟鏁磋嚜宸辩殑璧勪骇缁撴瀯銆傚湪杩欎釜璋冩暣杩囩▼涓?鍚勯噾铻嶈祫浜у拰瀹炵墿璧勪骇鐨勪环鏍煎氨浼氬彂鐢熺浉瀵瑰彉鍖?褰撹祫浜х粨鏋勮揪鍒板彟涓€涓柊鐨勫潎琛℃椂,杩欎竴浠锋牸鐨勫彉鍖栬繃绋嬩篃灏辫嚜鐒跺仠姝簡銆傝€屼袱瀛︽淳涔嬮棿鐨勪笉鍚岀偣灏卞湪浜庝粬浠璧勪骇鑼冨洿鐨勭晫瀹氫笉鍚屻€傚嚡鎭╂柉瀛︽淳璁や负浜轰滑鎵嬩腑鐨勮祫浜у彧鏈夋祦鍔ㄦ€ц祫浜т笌鍊哄埜,鑰岃揣甯佷富涔夎涓轰汉浠墜涓殑璧勪骇闄や簡娴佸姩鎬ц祫浜у拰閲戣瀺璧勪骇涔嬪锛岃繕鍖呮嫭瀹炵墿璧勪骇銆?/div>
 
绗簩绔?娴佸姩鎬т笌閲戣瀺璧勪骇浠锋牸娉㈠姩鐨勭晫瀹?/div>
 
2.1 娴佸姩鎬у拰娴佸姩鎬ц繃鍓╃殑姒傚康
鍏充簬娴佸姩鎬ф蹇电殑鐣屽畾锛屽鏈晫杩樻湭褰㈡垚涓€涓粺涓€鐨勬爣鍑嗐€侸.L.Hanson 鍦ㄣ€婄粡娴庝笌鍟嗕笟杈炲吀銆嬩腑鐨勮瘝鏉$粰鍑虹殑瑙i噴璁や负娴佸姩鎬ф槸鎸囬摱琛屼綋绯诲唴鐨勬祦鍔ㄦ€э紝鎵€璋撶殑娴佸姩鎬ц繃鍓╁氨鏄寚閾惰鑷効鎴栬€呰杩寔鏈夌殑娴佸姩鎬ц秴杩囧仴鍏ㄧ殑閾惰涓氬噯鍒欐墍瑕佹眰鐨勬甯告按骞炽€備箣鍚庢湁寰堝瀛﹁€呭皢娴佸姩鎬х殑姒傚康鎷撳睍鍒版暣涓噾铻嶅競鍦轰腑锛屾垜鍥藉鑰呴瞾鏀垮锛?006锛夊鍚勭瀹氫箟杩涜浜嗘€荤粨褰掔撼锛屽緱鍑烘祦鍔ㄦ€ц繃鍓╃殑鍏鍚箟锛氾紙1锛夊疄闄呰揣甯佸瓨閲忛珮浜庡潎琛℃按骞筹紝娼滃湪鐨勫悗鏋滄槸鍙兘浼氬鑷撮€氳揣鑶ㄨ儉鐨勫彂鐢熴€傦紙2锛夊噯璐у竵锛圡2-M1锛夌殑鎸佺画澧炲姞锛屼粠鍥惧舰涓婄湅锛屽氨鏄?M2 涓?M1 鐨勫枃鍙舰缂哄彛鍛堢幇鎵╁ぇ鐨勮秼鍔匡紝鍏舵綔鍦ㄧ殑鍗卞灏辨槸鍙兘瀵艰嚧娉℃搏缁忔祹銆傦紙3锛変紒涓氶潰涓寸殑鍙栧緱璧勯噾鐨勬澗绱х姸鎬侊紝鍏舵綔鍦ㄥ嵄瀹虫槸鍙兘瀵艰嚧缁忔祹杩囩儹锛岄暱鏈熷鑷翠骇鍑鸿繃鍓┿€傦紙4锛夐噾铻嶆満鏋勫瓨璐峰樊鐨勬寔缁墿澶у拰璐峰瓨姣旂殑鎸佺画闄嶄綆锛屽叾娼滃湪鐨勫嵄瀹虫槸閫犳垚鍟嗕笟鐩堝埄姘村钩鐨勪笅闄嶃€傦紙5锛夐摱琛岄棿甯傚満璧勯噾闈㈢殑鏉剧揣鐘舵€侊紝浠栬涓洪摱琛岄棿甯傚満鍒╃巼鏄彲浠ュ弽鏄犳祦鍔ㄦ€ф槸鍚﹁繃鍓╃殑鍏抽敭鎬ф寚鏍囥€傦紙6锛夋寚閲戣瀺鏈烘瀯鍦ㄤ腑澶摱琛岀殑瓒呴鍑嗗閲戝瓨娆炬寔缁浜庨珮浣嶃€傛牴鎹笂杩板娴佸姩鎬у拰娴佸姩鎬ц繃鍓╃殑涓嶅悓瑙i噴锛屾湰鏂囩粰鍑烘祦鍔ㄦ€х殑瀹氫箟锛岃涓烘祦鍔ㄦ€х殑姒傚康搴旇鍖呮嫭涓や釜灞傞潰鐨勭悊瑙o紝鏈夊井瑙傚拰瀹忚涔嬪垎銆傚井瑙傜殑娴佸姩鎬ф牴鎹笉鍚岀殑涓讳綋鍙堝彲浠ュ垎涓洪噾铻嶆満鏋勬祦鍔ㄦ€с€佽瘉鍒稿競鍦烘祦鍔ㄦ€у拰浼佷笟娴佸姩鎬с€傞噾铻嶆満鏋勭殑娴佸姩鎬ф槸鎸囧晢涓氶摱琛岀瓑閲戣瀺鏈烘瀯閲屽瓨鍦ㄧ殑杩囧墿鐨勬祦鍔ㄦ€ц祫浜х殑澶氬皯锛屾祦鍔ㄦ€ц繃鍓╁氨閫氬父琛ㄧ幇涓哄晢涓氶摱琛岀殑瓒呴鍑嗗閲戞寔缁浜庨珮浣嶏紝瀛樿捶宸殑鎸佺画鎵╁ぇ鍜岃捶瀛樻瘮鐨勬寔缁檷浣庯紱璇佸埜甯傚満鐨勬祦鍔ㄦ€ф槸鎸囬噾铻嶈祫浜у湪涓€瀹氭椂闂村唴杞崲鎴愮幇閲戠殑闅炬槗绋嬪害鍜屽彉鐜版垚鏈殑楂樹綆锛屽湪瀹炶瘉鐮旂┒涓粡甯哥敤鑲$エ鐨勬崲鎵嬬巼鏉ヨ〃绀烘祦鍔ㄦ€х殑楂樹綆锛涗紒涓氱殑娴佸姩鎬ф槸鎸囦紒涓氶€氳繃鍚勭绛硅祫鎵嬫鍙栧緱鐜伴噾鐨勯毦鏄撶▼搴︺€傚畯瑙傜殑娴佸姩鎬ф槸鎸囦竴绉嶈揣甯佺幇璞★紝鎸囬噾铻嶄綋绯诲唴鐨勫箍涔夎揣甯佸瓨閲忚秴杩囧疄闄呯粡娴庨渶瑕佺殑閮ㄥ垎銆傞€氬父鐢?M2/GDP 鍜岋紙M2-M1锛夋潵琛¢噺銆?/div>
鏈枃鐮旂┒鐨勬祦鍔ㄦ€х壒鎸囧畯瑙傚眰闈㈢殑娴佸姩鎬э紝鍗虫寚涓ぎ閾惰鍙戣鐨勫箍涔夎揣甯侀噺瓒呰繃瀹炰綋缁忔祹闇€姹傜殑閮ㄥ垎锛屽垎鍒噰鐢?M2/GDP 鍜岋紙M2-M1锛変袱涓寚鏍囨潵琛¢噺銆傚叾涓璏2/GDP 琛¢噺 M2 鍙戣閲忚秴杩?GDP 澧為暱鎵€闇€瑕佺殑绋嬪害锛岀敤鏉ュ害閲忓ぎ琛屼富鍔ㄦ垨琚姩鍦板彂琛岃揣甯侀€犳垚鐨勬祦鍔ㄦ€х殑澶у皬锛涳紙M2-M1锛夋寚骞夸箟璐у竵瀛橀噺鍜屽熀鍑嗚揣甯侀噺涔嬮棿鐨勫樊棰濓紝鐢ㄦ潵搴﹂噺鍏朵粬鍥犵礌閫犳垚鐨勬祦鍔ㄦ€х殑澶у皬銆?/div>
 
绗笁绔?娴佸姩鎬у閲戣瀺璧勪骇浠锋牸娉㈠姩.................. 24-29 
    3.1 娴佸姩鎬у奖鍝嶉噾铻嶈祫浜т环鏍兼尝鍔ㄧ殑鐞嗚鍒嗘瀽................ 24-25 
    3.2 鑲℃潈鍒嗙疆鏀归潻鑳屾櫙涓嬫祦鍔ㄦ€у閲戣瀺................ 25-27 
    3.3 涓嶅悓璐у竵鏀跨瓥鑳屾櫙涓嬫祦鍔ㄦ€у閲戣瀺................ 27-29 
绗洓绔?娴佸姩鎬т笌閲戣瀺璧勪骇浠锋牸娉㈠姩鍏崇郴................ 29-49 
    4.1 瀹炶瘉妯″瀷鐨勫缓绔?............... 29-30 
    4.2 鑲℃敼鑳屾櫙涓嬬殑妫€楠?................30-40 
    4.3 涓嶅悓璐у竵鏀跨瓥鏉′欢涓嬬殑妫€楠?............... 40-47 
    4.4 瀹炶瘉缁撹................ 47-49 
绗簲绔?缁撹涓庢斂绛栧缓璁?............... 49-53 
    5.1 瀵瑰疄璇佺粨璁虹殑鍒嗘瀽................ 49 
    5.2 鍏充簬缁撹鐨勬€濊€?............... 49-50 
    5.3 鏈枃鐨勪笉瓒充箣澶?............... 50-51 
5.4 鏀跨瓥寤鸿 ................51-53
 
缁撹
 
閫氳繃涓婁竴绔犵殑瀹炶瘉鍒嗘瀽锛屽彲浠ュ緱鍑轰互涓嬬粨璁恒€傚湪鑲℃敼鍓嶅悗锛岃瘉鍒稿競鍦鸿偂绁ㄨ祫浜х殑浠锋牸娉㈠姩鍜屾祦鍔ㄦ€т箣闂寸殑褰卞搷鏈虹悊鏄笉涓€鏍风殑锛屽湪鑲℃敼鍓嶏紝鑲′环鐨勬尝鍔ㄥ娴佸姩鎬ф湁鎸ゅ嚭鏁堝簲锛屽畠浠箣闂寸殑鍏崇郴涓昏琛ㄧ幇涓鸿偂浠风殑娉㈠姩褰卞搷娴佸姩鎬э紝鑰屽湪鑲℃敼鍚庯紝娴佸姩鎬ф垚涓鸿偂浠锋尝鍔ㄧ殑鍥犵礌锛岃繖灏辫鏄庢垜鍥借偂鏀瑰湪涓€瀹氱▼搴︿笂閬忓埗浜嗚偂甯傛尝鍔ㄥ瀹忚缁忔祹褰卞搷鐨勫井瑙傛笭閬擄紝璧峰埌浜嗗畬鍠勪綋鍒剁殑浣滅敤锛岃偂鏀瑰湪涓€瀹氱▼搴︿笂璇存槸鍗撴湁鎴愭晥鐨勩€傝€屼笖锛岃繖涓幇璞′篃璇佹槑浜嗭紝鍦ㄧ幇瀹炰腑锛屾祦鍔ㄦ€ц繃鍓╁凡缁忔垚涓烘帹鍔ㄨ偂浠蜂笂娑ㄧ殑閲嶈鍥犵礌銆?/div>
鍦ㄨ揣甯佹斂绛栭鍩燂紝閲戣瀺璧勪骇浠锋牸鐨勬尝鍔ㄥ崰涓诲浣滅敤锛屾祦鍔ㄦ€ф€绘槸澶勪簬浠庡睘鍦颁綅锛屼絾杩欑褰卞搷鏈哄埗寰堝井寮憋紝杩欎篃璇存槑鎴戝浗鐩墠骞舵病鏈夊缓绔嬪叾璐у竵鏀跨瓥鍜岄噾铻嶈祫浜ф尝鍔ㄤ箣闂寸殑璋冩帶妗嗘灦锛屾垜鍥藉湪璐у竵鏀跨瓥瀹炴柦杩囩▼涓紝鏄病鏈夎€冭檻閲戣瀺璧勪骇浠锋牸娉㈠姩鐨勫洜绱犵殑锛岃€屼笖鎺㈣灏嗛噾铻嶈祫浜т环鏍兼尝鍔ㄧ撼鍏ュ畯瑙傝皟鎺ф鏋朵篃鏄笉鐜板疄鐨勶紝鍥犱负鎴戝浗閲戣瀺璧勪骇浠锋牸娉㈠姩鍜屽畯瑙傛祦鍔ㄦ€т箣闂寸殑鑱旂郴寰箮鍏跺井锛屽嵆浣挎湁褰卞搷锛屼篃浠呴檺浜庣悊璁轰笂鐨勫垎鏋愶紝瀹為檯涓婂叿浣撳奖鍝嶇殑寰娓犻亾灏氭湭寤虹珛锛屽喌涓旓紝鍗充娇灏嗛噾铻嶈祫浜х殑浠锋牸娉㈠姩绾冲叆璐у竵鏀跨瓥璋冩帶鑼冨洿锛屽叾涔熸湭蹇呰兘澶熻皟鑺傘€?/div>
璐у竵鏀跨瓥涓嶆槸涓囪兘鐨勶紝鎴戜滑涓嶈兘甯屽唨浜庝緷闈犺揣甯佹斂绛栨潵杞绘澗鐨勭啫骞宠瘉鍒稿競鍦虹殑娉㈠姩銆傝偂浠风殑娉㈠姩褰卞搷鍥犵礌寰堝锛岄潪鐞嗘€т篃鍙槸涓€涓柟闈紝鑰屼笖闅忕潃鎶曡祫鑰呮暀鑲茬殑鍙戝睍锛岀幇鍦ㄥ競鍦烘鍦ㄧ敱闈炵悊鎬у悜鐫€鐞嗘€х殑鏂瑰悜鍙戝睍銆傝繖涓€鐜拌薄鐨勯泦涓〃鐜板氨鏄湪甯傚満涓婃満鏋勪氦鏄撹€呯殑澧炲锛屽喌涓旇揣甯佹斂绛栫殑璋冩帶鍦ㄩ潪鐞嗘€у洜绱犲墠闈紝鏃犵枒鏄媿鐧芥棤鍔涚殑锛屾瘮濡傚湪鑲″競楂樻定锛屾姇璧勮€呴潪鐞嗘€у崰鎹富瑕佸競鍦烘椂锛屽嵆浣胯揣甯佹斂绛栫揣缂╋紝涔熸棤娉曢樆鎸℃祦鍔ㄦ€х殑杩囧害娴佸叆璇佸埜甯傚満銆?/div>
 
鍙傝€冩枃鐚?/div>
[1]Friedman. M. Money and the Stock Market[J]锛孞ourna of PoliticalEconomy锛孉pril. 1988:99-109.
[2]Dayananda D. and Wen Yaok. Stock Market Return and MacroeconomicVariables in Taiwan[M]锛孉dvancesin Pacific Basic Financial Markets.1996.
[3]Allen F & Gale D. Bubbles and crises[J]. The Economic Journal,2000:PP.236-255.
[4]Bordo, Michael D. and Olivier Jeanne. Boom-Busts in Asset Prices,Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy, NBER working paper8966[J],June, 2002
[5]Adrian, Tohias and Shin, Hyun Song. Money, Liquidity and FinancialCycles[J]. Paper Presented in the Academic Panel at the 4th ECB CentralBanking Conference, Frankfurt, November 2006.
[6]Rajan, R. Monetary Policy and Incentives[J]. Address Given at CentralBanks in the 21stCentury Conference, 2006.
[7]Jensen, Gerald R. & Johnson, Robert R Discount rate changes andsecurity returns in the U.S., 1962-1991[J], Journal of Banking & Finance,1995(19):79-95
[8] Patelis, Alex D Stock Return Predictability and the Role of MonetaryPolicy[J], Journal of Finance, 1997(54)锛?951-1972
[9]Bruggeman A, Can Excess Liquidity Signal an Asset Price Boom?[J] BISAutumn Economists, Meeting, 2006, Basel, PP.1-62.
[10]Conover, Gerald R Jenson, Robert R Johnson. Monetary Environments andInternational Stock Returns [J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, VOI.23,1999:1357-1381.

 

纭曞崥鍘熷垱璁烘枃缃? /></td>
  </tr>
</table>
<table width=

纭曞崥鍘熷垱璁烘枃缃? 娆㈣繋鎮ㄧ殑鍜ㄨ锛佹垜浠皢涓烘偍鎻愪緵鏈€浼樿川銆侀珮鏁堢殑鏈嶅姟锛?br /> 涓撲笟鏈嶅姟锛屼紭璐ㄥ洟闃燂紝璇氫俊楂樻晥锛屽€煎緱淇¤禆锛?br /> 婀業CP澶?9012525鍙?/a>

杩斿洖椤堕儴